USD/CAD forecast for the week of May 8

The US dollar climbed against the Canadian dollar during the week, but on Friday got a bit of a surprise jobs number that was stronger than anticipated. Because of this, the market looks as if it is buying oil to anticipate more demand. Quite frankly, there are huge issues out there for oil so I feel that the strength in the petroleum markets are only going to be a short-term phenomenon. This of course help the Canadian dollar during the session on Friday which ended up forming a bit of a shooting star for the weekly candle. Nonetheless, I think the 1.36 level below will be supportive and it’s only a matter of time before the buyers return. After all, the employment situation in Canada isn’t exactly hot as they missed the employment figures on Friday.

Source : https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-405822

USD/CAD Weekly Forecast May 8-12

USD/CAD posted an impressive streak is it rallied for ten consecutive sessions prior to turning lower at the end of the week. Friday’s decline did not only serve to snap the bullish run in the pair but the single day drop erased gains from the early week. As a result, USD/CAD has printed a bearish shooting star on a weekly chart and a bearish engulfing candle on a daily chart.

The candlestick patterns hints of a turn lower, however, there are major technical developments driving oil prices, suggesting declines may be short-lived.

Last week, the pair closed at its highest level on a weekly basis in over a year. The sustained break above resistance at 1.3588, which held the pair lower on two attempts in the fourth quarter of 2016, has signaled a bullish continuation.
Read more : http://www.economiccalendar.com/2017/05 ... -may-8-12/

USD/CAD Struggles To Gain While the Dollar Continues To Recover

A stronger dollar on Monday had led to a recovery in USD/CAD while oil prices had remained mostly within a range for the day. The inverse correlation with oil prices is seen strengthening once again on Tuesday as the pair is unable to draw from continuation higher in the dollar and has posted only marginal gains on the back of a small decline in oil prices.

The US dollar index (DXY) has erased about 90% of the losses that followed the results from the first round of the French elections in a two-day recovery. DXY scaled above important support turned to resistance at 99.43 today to signal the potential for a broader recovery. The level marks prior support that held the index higher from December until the gap down in late April. The 200 DMA as well as a rising trendline from May lows falls within close vicinity of the trendline, emphasizing it’s importance. The index is currently seen attempting to close the gap from late April.
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USD/CAD Breaks Lower As Oil Prices Recover

A recovery in oil prices sent USD/CAD lower on Wednesday after a two-day recovery. The pair is seen falling below a rising channel which had held price action since the middle of April.

WTI crude oil prices (USOIL) broke higher from a bullish flag pattern which had been forming from the start of the week. The technical break occurred at the North American open and momentum picked up to the upside after the weekly oil inventory report indicated a larger than expected draw in inventories.
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USD/CAD forecast for the week of May 15

The USD/CAD pair broke higher during the week, testing the top of the shooting star from the previous week. The 1.36 level underneath will continue to be supportive, and that being the case it’s likely that the market could find quite a bit of volatility in this area. If we break down below the 1.36 handle, then I think that we drop down to the 1.3250 level. I have a channel drawn on the chart, and it looks very likely that we will continue to see that be and obeyed if we can break down. On the other and, if we can break above the top of the channel line, and more importantly the shooting star, the market should then go to the 1.40 level above, which will be resistive as well.

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USD/CAD Weekly Forecast May 15-19

USD/CAD traded in a range in the past week, posting a small weekly gain despite a recovery in oil prices. Technicals for the pair have been mixed over the past two weeks as the weekly chart is showing signs of exhaustion while developments over the past week continue to point to a weaker loonie.

The most notable positioning change in the latest COT report was in the Canadian dollar in which non-commercials have been aggressively building a short position. Since the shift to a net short in late March, non-commercials have added to the position for seven consecutive weeks..

In the week to May 9th, the COT report indicated a staggering build of $2.80 billion to brings the net short to $6.28 billion. The loonie is now the largest net short held among the majors after a significant reduction in the British pound net short.
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