CAD news

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Re: CAD news

frankfoot75 wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:34 pm
vvFish wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:59 am
Hello,what is this AE ?Can you share please?thanks in advance
this is a manual trade.
the advisor only puts a break-even and trawls profit

Canada data due today - August retail sales

In addition to inflation data there are also retail sales data due from Canada Friday 19 October 2018

- Data due at 1230GMT
- Inflation data due from Canada on Friday - previews

A couple of previews of the retails data:

We expect retail sales to decline in August through a combination of small declines in retail prices and retail sales volumes. Overall, we look for retail sales to decline by 0.2% month-on-month. With motor vehicle sales expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, we look for retail sales excluding autos to decline by 0.4% month-on-month. We expect retail sales prices to drop by 0.1%, largely due to an expected 1.0% decline in gasoline prices. Thus, real retail sales are expected to decline by 0.1%, with a 0.2% rise in real motor vehicle sales being offset by a decline in real retail sales excluding autos

We see a 0.2% m/m decline in nominal retail sales in August. This is driven by expected declines of about 1% m/m apiece for both gasoline station receipts (on lower prices) and auto sales. Excluding those two items, core sales should rise 0.2% m/m, but the risks are to the downside, as it was up 2.3% cumulatively in the three months to July. Retail volumes are expected to match the 0.1% m/m decline seen in July. Such an outcome would leave them up 1.9% annualized in Q2, which matches our consumption forecast for the quarter.

外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

USD/CAD reverses

USD/CAD reverses a dip to 1.3080, focus on BOC decision

- US dollar slips in tandem with USD/JPY, drags USD/CAD lower.
- Fresh selling in Oil caps the downside, as the focus shifts to the BOC rate hike plans.

The USD/CAD pair quickly reversed a brief dip to daily lows near 1.3080 region, now looking to take on the recovery above the 1.31 handle. However, it remains to be seen if the spot can sustain the bounce amid persisting risk-off market environment.

Risk-off remains at full steam in Europe amid ongoing uncertainty over the Italian budget, Brexit deal and the US-Saudi tensions that knocked-off the USD/JPY pair. As a result, the US dollar slipped from two-week tops versus its main peers, dragging the USD/CAD pair lower.

Further, a 3 percent slump in the Turkish Lira vs. the greenback adds to the offered tone around the spot. However, the losses appear capped amid the renewed weakness seen around oil prices while expectations of a 25bps rate hike to be announced by the Bank of Canada (BOC) tomorrow also keeps the Loonie somewhat underpinned.

In the meantime, the broader market sentiment and US dollar dynamics will continue to drive the USD/CAD price-action ahead of the Wall Street open and Fedspeaks.

USD/CAD Technical levels

According to RoboForex Team, “USDCAD is trading at 1.3100; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.3055 and then continue moving upwards to reach 1.3185. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the support level. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 1.2965. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2855.”

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-r ... 1810230918
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

USD/CAD recovers to 1.3100 ahead of BOC rate hike

USD/CAD recovers to 1.3100 ahead of BOC rate hike

- Fresh selling in Oil, US dollar strength lend support to USD/CAD.

- Upside could remain capped amid expectations of a BOC rate hike.

The USD/CAD pair caught a fresh bid-wave and embarked upon a steady recovery mode to regain the 1.31 handle before meeting fresh supply at the last, as the bulls await the BOC monetary policy decision for the next push higher.

The latest leg higher in the spot can be attributed to resurgent US dollar demand, mainly driven by a sell-off in the EUR and the GBP, in the wake of the European political woes. Moreover, markets prefer to hold the safe-haven US dollar in times of softer risk sentiment.

Furthermore, the ongoing weakness seen around oil prices amid Saudi’s commitment to compensate Iran’s oil supply shortfall keeps the resource-linked Loonie on the back foot. However, the recovery in the spot could be short-lived, as the CAD may regain strength on a 25bps rate hike announcement due by the BOC later in the NA session today.

USD/CAD Technical levels

FXStreet’s Analyst Omkar Godbole offers key technical levels for the USD/CAD pair heading into the BOC rate decision.


R1: 1.3100 (session high)

R2: 1.3120 (falling trendline)

R3: 1.3226 (September high)


S1: 1.3048 (10-day EMA)

S2: 1.3005 (100-day EMA) - 1.30 (psychological support)

S3: 1.2954 (200-day EMA)

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-r ... 1810240946
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

Bank of Canada increases overnight rate target to 1 ¾ per cent

Bank of Canada increases overnight rate target to 1 ¾ per cent

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.

The global economic outlook remains solid. The US economy is especially robust and is expected to moderate over the projection horizon, as forecast in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The new US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will reduce trade policy uncertainty in North America, which has been an important curb on business confidence and investment. However, trade conflict, particularly between the United States and China, is weighing on global growth and commodity prices. Financial market volatility has resurfaced and some emerging markets are under stress but, overall, global financial conditions remain accommodative.

The Canadian economy continues to operate close to its potential and the composition of growth is more balanced. Despite some quarterly fluctuations, growth is expected to average about 2 per cent over the second half of 2018. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.1 per cent this year and next before slowing to 1.9 per cent in 2020.

The projections for business investment and exports have been revised up, reflecting the USMCA and the recently-approved liquid natural gas project in British Columbia. Still, investment and exports will be dampened by the recent decline in commodity prices, as well as ongoing competitiveness challenges and limited transportation capacity. The Bank will be monitoring the extent to which the USMCA leads to more confidence and business investment in Canada.

Household spending is expected to continue growing at a healthy pace, underpinned by solid employment income growth. Households are adjusting their spending as expected in response to higher interest rates and housing market policies. In this context, household credit growth continues to moderate and housing activity across Canada is stabilizing. As a result, household vulnerabilities are edging lower in a number of respects, although they remain elevated.

CPI inflation dropped to 2.2 per cent in September, in large part because the summer spike in airfares was reversed. Other temporary factors pushing up inflation, such as past increases in gasoline prices and minimum wages, should fade in early 2019. Inflation is then expected to remain close to the 2 per cent target through the end of 2020. The Bank’s core measures of inflation all remain around 2 per cent, consistent with an economy that is operating at capacity. Wage growth remains moderate, although it is projected to pick up in the coming quarters, consistent with the Bank’s latest Business Outlook Survey.

Given all of these factors, Governing Council agrees that the policy interest rate will need to rise to a neutral stance to achieve the inflation target. In determining the appropriate pace of rate increases, Governing Council will continue to take into account how the economy is adjusting to higher interest rates, given the elevated level of household debt. In addition, we will pay close attention to global trade policy developments and their implications for the inflation outlook.

Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 5, 2018. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on January 9, 2019.

Source: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/10/fad ... 018-10-24/
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

USDCAD moves toward 200 hour MA

USDCAD moves toward the 200 hour MA

The 200 hour MA stalled the fall on Monday
The USDCAD started the week by moving lower and testing the 200 hour MA. That MA stalled the fall (green line). The price moved higher off the level.


The high stalled on Tuesday ahead of the swing highs from last week. Today, the bias started to tilt with a move below a trend line and then the 100 hour MA (blue line). The pair also moved below a lower trend line (underside at 1.3338) and is now eyeing the next target at the 200 hour MA (green line) at 1.33184. That is the MA line that stalled the fall on Monday.

So we are back to where we started (well as far as support) and trade between the broken trend line above and the 200 hour MA below. The sellers are making the play and have more control, but that MA needs to be busted.

Fundamentally, recall the BOC last week was more dovish in comments, but the employment report on Friday was very strong. So the pair has two side of the coin to focus on. The pairs price is more in between the range between 1.3253 below and 1.3444 above.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... a-20181212
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

USDCAD in search of a firm direction, stuck in a range below 1.3400 handle

USD/CAD in search of a firm direction, stuck in a range below 1.3400 handle

  • The USD bulls held on the defensive amid uncertainty over the Fed’s policy outlook.
  • Subdued oil price action does little to influence Loonie and provide any impetus.

The USD/CAD pair lacked any firm directional bias and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band below through the early European session.

The pair continued with its struggle to build on the momentum further beyond the 1.3400 handle and was now weighed down by a modest follow-through US Dollar retracement from 1-1/2 year tops.

Despite Friday's better than expected US monthly retail sales data, uncertainty over the Fed's rate hike path in 2019 kept the USD bulls on the defensive and turned out to be one of the key factors exerting some downward pressure on the first day of a new trading week.

However, a subdued price action around oil markets did little to provide any additional boost to the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and might help limit any deeper losses ahead of this week's key event risk - the latest FOMC monetary policy update.

With a 25bps rate hike largely priced in the market, the near-term USD trajectory will be guided by the Fed's forward guidance and eventually help investors determine the pair's next leg of a directional move.

In the meantime, the USD price dynamics might continue to act as an exclusive driver of the pair's momentum amid absent relevant market moving economic releases, either from the US or Canada.

Technical levels to watch
On a sustained move beyond the 1.3400 handle, the pair is likely to aim towards retesting 18-month tops, around the 1.3445 region. On the flip side, the 1.3355-50 region might continue to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might prompt some additional long-unwinding trade and drag the pair further towards challenging the 1.3300 round figure mark.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-i ... 1812170916
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

CAD - BoC governor doesn't expect a recession in 2019

Despite 'volatility,' BoC governor doesn't expect a recession in 2019


Canada is facing the shock of low oil prices and a trade war between its two biggest trading partners but Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz says he doesn’t expect a recession next year.

“We're certainly not expecting a recession in 2019 but I do think that everybody needs to be prepared for volatility,” Poloz said Monday in an extensive interview with CTV News Chief Anchor and Senior Editor Lisa LaFlamme.

“We are in a volatile world and so there are risks ... but I think the Canadian economy begins this new year in a pretty good place,” he added.

Canada is facing the shock of low oil prices and a trade war between its two biggest trading partners but Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz says he doesn’t expect a recession next year.

“We're certainly not expecting a recession in 2019 but I do think that everybody needs to be prepared for volatility,” Poloz said Monday in an extensive interview with CTV News Chief Anchor and Senior Editor Lisa LaFlamme.

“We are in a volatile world and so there are risks ... but I think the Canadian economy begins this new year in a pretty good place,” he added.

Poloz said that Canada’s “fundamentals are good,” citing the lowest unemployment rate in four decades and an inflation rate that is “on target.”

“The picture’s much better than we were in say, two or three years ago,” he said.

The Bank of Canada governor, who sets Canada’s monetary policy independent of the government, said that the biggest risk to growth are the tariffs the U.S. and China are putting on each other, which could will leave their consumers with less money to buy from Canada.

“Trade and investment is already slowing internationally as a result of the trade war that’s already started and the prospects that there may be more,” he said. “That would be a slowing in all economies and higher prices because tariffs raise prices.”

“There’s a risk there that we have rising inflation at the same time as slowing economies,” Poloz went on. “There are no macroeconomic tools to fix that combination as we had in the ‘70s, the stagflation ‘70s. So that’s a bad prospect.”

North American stock indexes have fallen dramatically in recent weeks. On Monday, the S&P/TSX composite index lost 232.42 points and closed at 14,362.65, the lowest level since September 2016.

The jittery markets are evidence of investors “wrestling with the prospect of a trade war between the United States and China and frankly other countries,” Poloz said.

But as bad as a prolonged trade war between the U.S. and China would be, Poloz points out that many people thought NAFTA would be torn up by the United States yet the Trump administration agreed to a deal with Canada and Mexico.

“And I think the same thing is true on the U.S.-China front,” Poloz told LaFlamme. “Right now everybody is talking about the gloom scenario, but we've seen signs of optimism in recent weeks that they are making progress behind the scenes, and if they do resolve all of that, well, that'll be a source of brand new lift to the global economy, and I think then we can see this expansion continue on for quite some time.”

Another source of volatility, Poloz admits, is U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempts to pressure the U.S. Federal Reserve using his Twitter account.

Poloz says the president’s tweets have “become part of the noise that we see every day.”

“It's sort of noise though (that) one never gets used to, I’ll confess,” he added. “I mean it just adds to the uncertainty that's floating around.”

Poloz acknowledged that low oil prices are also a risk to the Canadian economy, but said he doesn’t believe the current economic crisis in Alberta is as bad as the shock that low oil prices caused there in 2014 and 2015.

“When the prices fall from $150 to $50 dollars and then to $30 dollars in 2014-15, that was a huge shock for the economy, and two to three years later, macroeconomically speaking (Alberta is) back on track,” he told LaFlamme.

Another reason for relative optimism are the changes in capital consumption allowances announced in the November fiscal update. Businesses can now immediately expense the cost of some machinery and equipment for tax purposes.

“That'll be an important engine for growth as we go into 2019,” Poloz said.

The governor wouldn’t say whether the benchmark interest rate will rise from 1.75 per cent in January but he did offer advice for consumers looking to make big purchases in the coming weeks.

“They need to consider their overall situation as always,” he said. “And certainly with taking on a mortgage these days, what we've asked is that everyone test themselves against a two percentage point increase in interest rates so that they know they'll being able to handle higher payments when they do renew their mortgage.”

“They don't have to go to a bank to figure that out and make sure that they can they can be able to absorb those kinds of changes,” he said.

Source: https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/despite ... -1.4222062
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

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