CFTC Commitments of Speculators: Big bets against the US dollar trimmed

EUR long 79K vs 94K long last week. Longs trimmed 15K
GBP short 32K vs 25K short last week. Shorts increased 7K
JPY short 77K vs 96K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 19K
CHF short 1K vs 1K short last week. No change
CAD long 51K vs 63K long. CAD longs trimmed by 12K
AUD long 60k vs 58k last week. Longs increased by 2K
NZD long 25K vs 33K long last week. Longs trimmed by 8K

Commitment Of Traders: Speculators Show A Shift In Dollar Sentiment

There were some notable positioning shifts in the latest COT positioning report that was released on Friday and reflects data up to Tuesday. Non-commercials cut back on bullish bets on several currencies in the futures market suggesting an improvement of sentiment towards the greenback.

The only currency that had a notable bullish shift was the Japanese yen. Non-commercials cut back for a fourth consecutive week with a decline in the net short to 77,492 contracts from 95,813. Despite a significant decline in the net short from a three and a half year high in mid-July, it remains above levels seen in the first half of the year which suggests the position size remains extreme. A bulk of the position shift was on the back of a short covering.

The largest shift was seen in euro positioning as the net long dropped from 93,665 contracts to 79,267. Last week, the position rose to a fresh six-year high. This week it has fallen to a six-week low. Nevertheless, the position remains at an extreme, putting the euro at risk of further long covering.

A large net short yen position and net long euro position as of late hinted that the markets may have been positioned long EUR/JPY. There was a recent technical break in the currency pair and this week’s report confirms that there was likely a large number of market participants positioned in the pair that have now started to exit. Technical developments in EUR/JPY will be important for the euro crosses and yen pairs in this context as both currencies are at risk of a liquidation.

Bullish sentiment towards the Canadian currency rose at an accelerated pace last week but bulls have cut back a significant portion of last week’s bullish bets. The net long declined from 62,821 contracts to 51,349, attributed to a long covering. Despite the draw, the position size remains the second-largest seen this year and has held near levels not seen since early 2013.

The British pound net short rose to the highest since late June with an increase to 31,860 contracts from a prior 26,160. Speculators added to both long and short contracts and despite a net build to the short side, the gross long has risen to a size that can be considered extreme.

Between the antipodean currencies, the Australian dollar net long was little changed while there was a sharp decline in the New Zealand dollar net long. It dropped from 33,485 contracts to 24,839 contracts, mostly on a decline in gross long contracts. The position size has fallen to a two-month low.

Australian dollar sentiment was little changed with a rise in the net long from 58,010 to 59,612. There was a sharp rise in the currency following the report cut off date which suggests the net long has risen from the levels in the report.

Re: CFTC commitment of traders report


✍ The Commitments of Traders (CoT) Report

※ Speculative ─ mid to long-term positioning
※ Managed Money (Slow & Fast money) ─ near to medium-term positioning

☛ The CoT data is issued by the CFTC every Friday (Saturday, GMT+8) to provide market participants a breakdown of each Tuesday's (Wednesday, GMT+8) open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC. In plain English, this is a report that shows what positions major traders are taking in a number of financial and commodity markets. It provides a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.

☛ The CoT data is an essential tool for gauging current and future sentiment in Futures or Forex market. It is highly advisable not to use CoT data alone when it comes to your trading decision. This report is not designed as a market entry tool, as the market can be near-term bullish in a long-term downtrend. Although, it can be used to confirm the mid/long term fundamental bias in a given market.

☛ Though there is never one report or tool that can give you certainty about where prices are headed in the future, the CoT data does allow the small investors a way to see what larger traders are doing and to possibly position their positions accordingly. For example, if there is a large managed money short interest in gold, that is often an indicator that a rally may be coming because the market is overly pessimistic and saturated with shorts - so you may want to take a long position (on normal market conditions).

☛ I use the data to compare or combined speculative & managed money (instruments - currencies, equities, commodities, etc.) if I can identify a clear skewed bias in terms of the overall strength or weakness of a particular currency or instrument. Like for example... for USD, I check the positioning of these instruments ─ DXY, Gold, Yen, Nikkei 225 and 10-Year U.S. Bond.

☛ On this CoT data table, I added a corresponding correlation besides the symbol or instrument name (caution: it may be outdated). In correlation, there is also positive & negative between pairs or crosses. This can turn to “normal” at any time, making through a pair to fall and the other to fall slower or to go sideways. There is also the possibility for a pair to rally in order to “reach” the other pair.

☛ For technical analysis or you as a technician, watch for vital inflection points, and/or as an analyst that monitor headline risk as they relate to geopolitical situations and macroeconomic commentary.

☝ Always keep in mind that inter-market relationships govern currency price action. Therefore, you may need additional work in order to understand the CoT data.

✌ The CoT report - Futures data offer a proxy for volume but represent only a small fraction of the currency market.

☢ Since the report is issued every Friday (Saturday, GMT+8) that includes only the data from Tuesday to Tuesday only. The three days prior to the release date are not included. It means there is a three-day lag between the report and the actual positioning of traders. This is an eternity by short-term investing standards, and by the time the new report is issued, it has already missed a large amount of trading activity. Think of it as illegal insider information received early by Michael Corleone (CFTC) but then he gave it only to you after three days. ; )─

This post is for information purposes only, wherein it acts as references to my own trading journal (small part). No information contained herein should be regarded as suggestive to engage in or refrain from any investment-related course of action. It makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed, including timeliness, suitability of any information - e.g. videos, images, and documents posted or shared herein. All contents on this post are subject to change and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in the market conditions or economic circumstances.

In addition, please be reminded that there is always the potential for loss. Your trading results may vary. Unique experiences and past performances do not guarantee future results. Hence, it is highly recommended to seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice whether any given investment idea, strategy, product or service described herein may be appropriate for your circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal.

CoT data ─ Week #51: Speculative positioning

CoT data ─ Week #51: Managed Money (Slow & Fast money) positioning

You may need to check another type of transformation of the CoT data (FREE) >>> https://freecotdata.com/currencies-2/

Re: CFTC commitment of traders report

nathanvbasko wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 2:44 pm
CoT data
Previous:  Week #19 


Current::  Week #20 

Excellent. Thanks V :thumbup:
Myfxbook live trading results (new 2019 account coming soon)
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Re: CFTC commitment of traders report

1) CoT Reports ─ Futures Data (Speculative): mid to long-term positioning
Note: CoT data are based on the Legacy data format
Previous: Week #20: 15th May 2019 (GMT+8)
2) CoT Reports ─ Futures Data (Speculative): mid to long-term positioning
Note: CoT data are based on the Legacy data format
Current: Week #21: 22nd May 2019 (GMT+8)
3) CoT Reports ─ Futures Data (Managed Money - Fast or Slow Money): near to mid-term positioning
Note: CoT data are based on the Legacy data format
Previous: Week #20: 15th May 2019 (GMT+8)

4) CoT Reports ─ Futures Data (Managed Money - Fast or Slow Money): near to mid-term positioning
Note: CoT data are based on the Legacy data format
Current: Week #21: 22nd May 2019 (GMT+8)[attach]CoT_Data_05-22-2019_Managed.jpg;3345324[/attach]

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