CFTC Commitments of Traders: JPY shorts increase. Eur longs also see an increase

EUR long 91K vs 84K long last week. Longs increased by 7K
GBP short 16K vs 24K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 8K.
JPY short 127K vs 112K short last week. Shorts increased by 15K
CHF short 4K vs 0K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
CAD long 8K vs 9K short. CAD position shifts by 17K new longs. Position is now long.
AUD long 51k vs 37k last week. Longs increased by 14K.
NZD long 36K vs 32K long last week. Longs increased by 4K

Commitment Of Traders Report: Yen Net Short Rises To 3.5 Year High

Similar to what was seen in the prior two reports, the latest COT report showed non-commercials holding a bearish dollar view and shifting funds into other major currencies. The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc were the exceptions and saw net selling in the week to July 18th.

A significant build in the Japanese yen net short over the past two reports shows the position at levels not seen since the start of 2014. Non-commercials increased exposure from a net 112,125 contracts to 126,919 contracts, mostly on a build in short contracts.

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CFTC Commitments of Traders: Shorts in JPY remain lumpy (and underwater). The longs in EUR are looking good though.

EUR long 91K vs 91K long last week. No change in position.
GBP short 26K vs 16K short last week. Shorts increased by 10K.
JPY short 121K vs 127K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 6K
CHF short 2K vs 4K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
CAD long 27K vs 8K short. CAD longs increased by 19K.
AUD long 56k vs 51k last week. Longs increased by 5K.
NZD long 35K vs 36K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1K

Commitment Of Traders: Speculators Raise Bearish Bets On Pound

Bearish dollar sentiment continued to dominate positioning in the currency markets. Last week, speculators added long to all the major futures currencies except the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. This week, the exceptions were the New Zealand dollar and the British pound.

The increase in bearish sentiment towards the British pound was significant. The position size had shrunk to 16,473 contracts in the last report which reflected the smallest net short in the time period following the EU referendum. The net short rose to 26,197 contracts attributed mostly to a build in gross short contracts. Despite the roughly 60% week over week increase in the net short, it remains well below levels seen in March and April.

Non-commercials scaled back on the Japanese yen net short after adding to the position over the prior four consecutive weeks. The net short declined from 126,919 to 121,489 contracts with a draw in both gross long and gross short positions. The position size remains near a three and a half year high.

After shifting to a net long in the last report, speculators added to the loonie position. The net long rose from 8,043 contracts to 26,613 contracts. Similar to the prior week, the build was attributed to an increase in long positioning and a further cut of bearish bets. The largest loonie net long position held this year was 30,090 contracts at the end of February.

A rise in the Aussie net long shows it at a 15-month high. The net long rose from 51,356 to 56,374 contracts, marking a sixth consecutive week of improving sentiment. The Australian dollar’s antipodean counterpart, the New Zealand dollar, saw a small decline to end nine consecutive weeks of improving sentiment. The net long edged down from 35,981 contracts to 34,805.

The euro net long was little changed and remains near six-year highs. The position edged lower from 91,321 contracts to 90,842 contracts.

CFTC Commitments of Traders. EUR and JPY positions trimmed. CAD longs highest since Jan. 2013.

EUR long 83K vs 91K long last week. Longs cut by 8K
GBP short 29K vs 26K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K.
JPY short 112K vs 121K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 9K
CHF short 1K vs 2K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
CAD long 41K vs 27K short. CAD longs increased by 14K.
AUD long 61k vs 56k last week. Longs increased by 5K.
NZD long 35K vs 35K long last week. No change from the prior week


Little changes in the net speculative positions
EUR longs were trimmed by 8K
JPY shorts were also trimmed in the current week (by 9K)
CAD longs rose. That position has been on an upward trajectory. The longs are the largest since January 2013. It was not long ago, that the CAD short was the largest on record. The CAD is ending the week lower and is ending the week at the lowest level since July 18.

Commitment Of Traders: CAD Bullish Bet At 4.5 Year High

The biggest take away from this week’s COT report was a build in the net long loonie position to levels not seen since early 2013. Non-commercials also scaled back on bullish euro bets and bearish yen bets and added a little to the Aussie net long.

It was the tenth consecutive week that loonie sentiment improved. Speculators have been adding over 10,000 contracts to the gross long every week for the past four weeks. The net long rose from 26,613 contracts to 42,247 contracts. The weekly build was almost entirely attributed to a build in gross long contracts as gross short positioning declined by only 1,525 contracts.

Euro bulls scaled back for a second consecutive week. The net long position declined to 82,637 from 90,842 contracts with the draw in the gross long outpacing by the build in gross shorts by about three to one.

The euro position is the largest net long among the major currencies by a significant margin. In dollar terms, the euro is held net long by roughly $12 billion compared to the second largest net long, the Australian dollar, at roughly $5 billion.

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IMM Report: Largest Bet Against USD Since 2012, Largest CAD long Since 2013

Latest IMM report (covering up to Tuesday Aug 1 and were released Friday Aug 4).

Overall, aggregate bear bet on the USD, expressed via the major currencies, rose by USD1.3bn in the week to total just over USD11bn, the largest bet against the USD overall since 2012.

In addition, the gross CAD shorts are covering but gross CAD longs are adding to exposure strongly with the net long CAD position reflects the most bullish the market has been on the CAD since 2013.

Finally, on the EUR front, the longs were trimmed very lightly last week and a bit more aggressively this week, perhaps reflecting market concerns that the EUR rally had run on too far, too fast.

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