Commitment Of Traders Report: CAD Bears Throw In The Towel

After stubbornly holding an extreme net short loonie position over the past seven weeks, non-commercials drastically slashed the net position with the bulk of the shift attributed to a short covering. Aside from scaling back on the Canadian dollar position, speculators added to every other net position among the major currencies with notable builds in the euro and Japanese yen.

The loonie net short declined from 82,881 contracts to 49,495 contracts. Gross long contracts rose marginally to 28,698 and the bulk of the shift was attributed to a drop in gross short contracts from 111,388 to 78,193. The shift is not surprising considering the shift in the Bank of Canada’s stance earlier in June but what is surprising is how long it look for bears to shift their stance.

The loonie had a sharp rise on Wednesday which suggests a further moderation took place in the net short following the report cut-off date

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CFTC Commitments of Traders: EUR longs increase. JPY shorts also move higher.

EUR long 77K vs 59K long last week. Longs increased by 18K
GBP short 28K vs 39K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 11K.
JPY short 75K vs 61K short last week. Shorts increased by 14K
CHF short 0K vs 5K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
CAD short 39K vs 49K short. Shorts trimmed by 10K.
AUD long 32k vs long 20k last week. Longs increased by 12K.
NZD long 29K vs 25K long last week. Longs increased by 4K

Commitment Of Traders Report: Speculators Becoming Increasingly Bearish Japanese Yen

The latest COT report showed non-commercials getting long most of the major currencies, likely attributed to a further weakening of the dollar. The Japanese yen was the only currency that showed a clear bearish bias as a significant weekly build took the net short to the largest size since the middle of January.

Non-commercials held the yen net short by 75,036 in the week to July 3rd, up from 61,350 contracts in the prior week. The build is attributed to an increase in gross short contracts from 99,604 to 118,684. Yen bulls do not appear convinced that the current leg of weakness will be sustained as the gross long increased from 38,254 contracts to 43,648.

Euro bulls remain confident and a build in gross long contracts to 185,925 reflects the largest gross long in over three years. Bears cut back on positions for a second consecutive week. Last week’s report showed bears scaling back to 120,976 from 122,393 contracts. This week’s report reflected a more aggressive short covering to 108,461 contracts. The net long position rose to 77,464 from 58,695 contracts.

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CFTC Commitments of Traders: CAD spec position nearly square. Thus nearly ends the worst chapter in spec history

Forex futures net speculative positions as of the close of business on Tuesday July 11, 2017
  • EUR long 84K vs 77K long last week. Longs increased by 7K
  • GBP short 24K vs 28K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K.
  • JPY short 112K vs 75K short last week. Shorts increased by 37K
  • CHF short 0K vs 0K short last week. No change
  • CAD short 9K vs 39K short. Shorts trimmed by 30K.
  • AUD long 37k vs 32k last week. Longs increased by 5K.
  • NZD long 32K vs 29K long last week. Longs increased by 3K

Commitment Of Traders Report: Yen Bears Get Aggressive, Euro Net Long Rises To 6-Year High

This week’s COT report shows some significant shifts in the major currencies with a similar theme as last week. Non-commercials increased their bearish USD bets by getting long all of the other major currencies with the exception of the Japanese yen.

The Japanese yen saw a notable shift in the last report but speculators stepped on the gas in the week to July 11th by increasing the net short from 75,036 to 112,125 contracts. This marks a roughly 50% week over week increase in the net position and takes it to the largest size seen in over a year.

The shift is attributed mostly to increasing bearish sentiment as the gross short position rose from 118,684 contracts to 152,903. Speculators scaled back on long contracts but the draw wasn’t significant and the gross long remains higher than what was reported in the week to June 27th.

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ANZ on CFTC data - "overall net USD longs to their lowest since May 2016"

  • Further reducing their net long USD positions
  • Brought the overall net USD longs to their lowest since May 2016
  • Net long ICE USD positions, which mirror the DXY, were at a three-year low
  • With dovish remarks from Fed Chair Yellen and weak CPI and retail sales prints last week, long USD positions are likely to have retreated further
  • Dollar selling was broad based against the G10 currencies except the JPY
  • Funds were most bullish on commodity currencies. This was led by CAD ... Meanwhile, AUD and NZD saw further net buying
  • Funds unwound their net short EUR positions by USD1.4bn to turn net long ahead of the upcoming ECB meeting
  • net long 10-year UST positions were cut for the third successive week, as yields continued to head higher

IMM Report: EUR/JPY Vulnerable As Positioning Risks Mount

This week’s report showed that CAD and EUR saw the greatest positive w/w swings while JPY suffered notably.

CAD and CHF are held flat, while EUR, AUD, MXN and NZD are all held net long

In particular, mounting positioning risk that leaves EUR/JPY vulnerable to a pullback on longs profit-taking.

Bullish EUR positioning has pushed to a fresh multi-year high with the net long climbing $1.0bn w/w to $12.0bn..."JPY is the only sizeable net short ($12.3bn), followed by GBP ($1.9b),

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