Re: CFTC commitment of traders report

The charts summarize the relative position of an exchange rate relative to its performance over the last year. The yellow background that indicates the square dimension of the chart. The orange dot indicates today's position relative to the high (top of chart) and low (bottom of chart) of the FX index during the last 365 days. So if the orange dot is close to the top, the currency is close to its highest valuation. If the orange dot is close to the bottom, the currency is near its lowest valuation. The blue bars indicate the distribution of valuations over the course of one year. The span between high and low valuation is divided into ten ranges (ie, deciles). Then the number of days during which the currency's valuation has been in each of these deciles is counted. The number of days is proportional to the width of each of the ten blue bars. Thus the position of the orange dot relative to the width of the blue bars indicates if the current valuation is a relatively common event or a relatively rare event. For example, if the bulk of valuations has been in the lower deciles, and the orange dot is near the top where the bars are narrow, the currency has recently moved up sharply. These charts ("FX conifers") are a simple method of visually summarizing the performance of a currency over the time period of one year. One useful feature of this chart is that it automatically adjusts for the different volatility of currencies, as the span between one-year high and one-year low is a reflection of a currency's volatility.

Re: CFTC commitment of traders report

You may use this tool to gauge the financial liquidity - more importantly, look at the ANFCI values
─ When liquidity is tightening, take bearish trades. When liquidity is loosening, take bullish trades (USD centric).
─ Risk is a coincident indicator, credit is a lagging indicator, and leverage is a leading indicator of financial stress.


IMHO: Three consecutive weeks of Tighter Financial Conditions may indicate that the Fed or Market expectations of a rate cut are pricing-in since the 25th of May 2019.

Re: CFTC commitment of traders report

The Commitment of Traders Report: Week #24-23 (Speculative and Managed Money)

Financial Conditions ( U.S. Centric ):

─ Tighter @ Week-ending 7th June 2019
─ Tighter @ Week-ending 31st May
─ Tighter @ Week-ending 24th May
─ Steady @ Week-ending 17th May
─ Loosening @ Week-ending 10th May

Current Week #24: 12th June 2019 (GMT +8)


Previous Week #23: 5th June 2019 (GMT +8)

Re: CFTC commitment of traders report

Weekly COT Report: Traders Ditch USD For A Fourth Consecutive Week

  • Traders reduced net-long exposure to USD for a 4th consecutive week, shedding -$1.1 billion of long positions to $19.6k billion (23.3k billion against G10 currencies)
    The Canadian dollar saw the largest weekly change, where net-short exposure was reduced by -23.3k contracts
    Bearish exposure on Japanese yen futures is at its least bearish level since June 2018
    Bearish exposure on Canadian dollar futures is at its least bearish level since December 2018
  • 82.9% of large speculators are bullish on gold, making it the highest long to short ratio since September 2016
    WTI bulls reduced gross long positions for a 9th consecutive week, yet net-long exposure has increased as shorts were covered at a faster pace
    Traders are net-long on Silver for a 3rd consecutive week, and at their most bullish level since early March ... tive-week/

Re: CFTC commitment of traders report

✍ The Commitments of Traders (CoT) Report

※ Speculative ─ mid to long-term positioning
※ Managed Money (Slow & Fast money) ─ near to mid-term positioning

☛ The CoT data is issued by the CFTC every Friday (Saturday, GMT+8) to provide market participants a breakdown of each Tuesday's (Wednesday, GMT+8) open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC. In plain English, this is a report that shows what positions major traders are taking in a number of financial and commodity markets. It provides a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.

☛ The CoT data is an essential tool for gauging current and future sentiment in Futures or Forex market. It is highly advisable not to use CoT data alone when it comes to your trading decision. This report is not designed as a market entry tool, because the market can be near-term bullish in a long-term downtrend. Although, it can be used to confirm the mid/long term fundamental bias in a given market.

☛ Though there is never one report or tool that can give you certainty about where prices are headed in the future, the CoT data does allow the small investors a way to see what larger traders are doing and to possibly position their positions accordingly. Such as, if there is a large managed money short interest in gold, that is often an indicator that a rally may be coming because the market is overly pessimistic and saturated with shorts - so you may want to take a long position (on normal market conditions). 
Current CoT data Week #37: Futures Only
11th September 2019 (GMT +8)
Speculative and Based on Legacy Format
Current CoT data Week #37: Futures & Options
11th September 2019 (GMT +8)
Managed Money