jgxpro wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:57 pm
Dear Xard,
I. Let me address your intuitively dismissed retracement level idea with some quite strong quantitative confirmation of your decision (not mine, but the author of the course I posted; sorry I remembered it vaguely, but couldn't find it sooner, as it wasn't in the course or the book, but a blogpost):
"In fact, if you take an objective look at retracements, you’ll start to see something interesting. Retracements can “kinda stop anywhere” in the previous swing, but, on average, they retrace “about half, maybe a little more”. In all my years of trading, I haven’t found a more reliable rule than that, and it’s also borne out in quantitative testing."
Retracement level distribution.png
"This chart shows swing retracements across the horizontal axis. (E.g., 60 means that the swing retraced 60% of the previous swing.) You can see that the peak is somewhere around 60%, with a very wide margin of error."

II. XARD: Should we wait for the corrected package, or is it usable (can I set it on 5 mins autorefresh somewhere)?

III. navlem: these dots aren't carved in stone. You shouldn't jump on the gun like a too fast lover, but wait for some kind of confirmation: e.g. candle formation, or at least use a limit order (and not an immediate market order) above (long), or below (short), the entry candle to give chance that it doesn't go immediately against you

francisfinley stimpy wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:31 pm
ive just read those links, take it with a pinch of salt, the guy is a publisher first and foremost.
livermore didnt make millions because he paid attention to that, he made it because he identified what constitutes a swing and then he made is % threshold - you can use fibs or moon rising over jupiter. its never going to be a fixed % in 2020

as above you are playing against the decepticons.

jgxpro wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:41 pm
I'm not sure we are on different side of this... Did we read the same articles? I posted a quantitative testing, which mostly invalidates famous ratios and percentages, as the distribution is so spread out, you shouldn't deal with it too much. So I backed up the decision not to give to much importance of the extent of retracements. An approximate belief of 'retracement is about half of trend leg' isn't worse as chasing 61,8%, or not really considering this at all.

francisfinley stimpy wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:50 pm


no, its subjective based on the approach. It doesn't invalidate anything at all. Its an article to push his "AlgoSwings® tool".
The median and mean is 63% according to his calcs - well if you still used 61% you are going to go well then?

as above this stuff is totally subjective. You have to work out what is a lower low, lower high, higher high, higher low. Work out the swing and your belief in where to enter the retrace/pullback - to try and quash "a" number is silly - "you mean to say 61% doesnt work every single time?! damn you grimes!!"

He is a publisher first and foremost.

jgxpro wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:01 pm
Huh, so much for quantitative tests. How could you read the opposite of what he backed up?
Don't you see with your own eyes, that the median and mean here is so weak you can't give it significance? There are almost as many 40% retracements or 80% retracements as the median around 60%! Not 63 instead of 61, but you can't even give it the 40-80% range with confidence! He discredited the chase for any golden numbers for me in this regard and I'm in shock you can read it otherwise... If his stuff is totally subjective, what about yours, stimpy?
You are then a witch hunter first and foremost, who burns anyone no matter who he /she is lol.

normannasty wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:08 pm I'm totally lost. I know francis I'm stupid.
We speaking about second dot and there are dotted lines on the pics and on the templates.

xard777 wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:13 pm Today on the 30 min we were waiting for price to come down on both HK & DOW to make a blue dot on the 30 min
Then we watch the 1 min and wait for the 2nd White Dot off our Blue Dot.
We now have our entry BUY trades on both HK & DOW
Enclosed charts for your perusal
Xard777

PS Yes, there was mega scalping trades inside the HK orange box today but if we simply look at trading the 30 min and picking up our best entry off the 1 min then we are still trading off the 30 min BIAS - Now a new Red Dot has appeared on the 30 min so our BIAS should now be down when the next 2nd white dot appears on 1 min, 5 min etc..

francisfinley stimpy wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:22 pm

Go through the course posted or google swing trading. Jesse Livermore talked about it too.

The most basic definition of what you need to do is in the back of mark douglas's''s's "trading in the zone" he only makes one mention of a method to use. Its what xard is employing here.

you are looking to understand higher lows, higher highs & lower lows and lower highs in relation to swing trading. It is just one method/strategy of trading price.
You then get in on a retrace/pullback.

price zig zags naturally and that is what xard is presenting to you here - i dont support or reject it either way - its a templated view on what is happening underneath.

Dont focus solely on the dots - that is just an end point of a zig zag. its still price underneath, as i said go over the basics first before you get stuck into systems/methods.