Ogee wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:46 pm
Yesterday, for the first time, the actual Ukrainian army attacked Russian defences in the counteroffensive.
Mikael Valtersson
@MikaelValterss1
Former officer Swedish Armed Forces/Air Defence, former defence politician and chief of staff Sweden Democrats. Current political and military analyst.
Stockholm, Sverige
ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS JUNE 4
June 4th UkrAF scaled up offensive operations on the Southern Front, but the losses are too high for long time success. Earlier operations were mainly reconnaissance in force with platoon and company sized combat groups. Yesterday the ukrainian forces seemed to be battalion sized combat groups. According to Russian MoD 8 UkrAF battalions was involved in offensive operations SE of Mala Tokmachka (1), at the Vremivka salient (2) and East of Vuhledar towards Velikonovoselovka (3). The fighting was intense, but on most places ukrainian forces was turned back, mainly by intense russian artillery and air attacks. On some places UkrAF succeeded in capturing a couple of hundred meters.
There are two different media stories about the fighting. The ukrainian side is very quiet about both the attacks and eventual losses on their side. Russian sources are much more liberal with information, both in text and videos. IF the russian information is correct, this explains the ukrainian silence, since the ukrainian side seldom concedes major losses on their side and tries to shift attention to other subjects.
According to the russian side, ukrainian losses amount at least 10 tanks, nearly 40 IFVs or APCs and at least 250 eliminated (KIA or very badly WIA). With this number of eliminated, the number of wounded would probably be 750-1000.
Are these numbers true, the prospects for a ukrainian counteroffensive looks very dim. This is even if we don't take into account the ongoing intense russian air and artillery offensive against UkrAF troop concentrations, ammunition and fuel depots.
With losses of over 1000 KIA and WIA that means that a ukrainian brigade of 4000 man loose at least 25 percent of its manpower. That's on the brink of making a brigade unusable. Two days fighting with such losses would destroy a brigades battle capability. 24 days with such losses would in effect destroy the entire fist of 12 brigades UkrAF has gathered for the counteroffensive. With losses of around 12 brigades, 25 000 KIA/WIA, 250 tanks and 1000 IFVs/APCs all the strategic reserves UkrAF has built during the last 6 months would be gone. In exchange the ukrainian side could have advanced maybe 10 km on some places or more generally 2-3 km along maybe half the southern front.
Once again, IF the russian claims are true, RuAF must feel relieved and UkrAF very worried by the results of the fighting on the Southern front June 4th.
Map from Institute of War
oh come on, do you even know what persons tweets you are linking?
This is a swedish person, that was thrown out of all his political engagements (swedish extreme right wing party SD), and lost his job at the airforce 2014-2015, because he is a nazi, and he was passing on secret military information, no wonder he is helping the russian propaganda.
i have some swedish news articles if you dont believe me, im sure they can be ran through google translate if someone can bothered with the truth, this guy is exposed nazi, he calls himself Adolf Hitler online. and he is a big fan of Russia, omg the garbage you link xD
Why would a nazi get info from russia about what happens at the frontline?
Russia works with nazis, is that what youre admitting?
Or doesnt he have russian ties you'd want to say? then how would he know shit about whats going on at the frontline, he has no clue! he's a fat swedish nazi bastard living in his mothers basement, that wants attention. this is just propaganda.
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/hitler ... rs-expert/
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/valter ... -facebook/
https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/sds-t ... ropaganda/
https://nyheter24.se/nyheter/politik/78 ... propaganda
https://www.svd.se/a/zLqLJb/utkastad-sd ... ekreterare
However the counteroffensive is going, you dont know shit, troll accounts dont know shit, so why spread misinformation?
Vatnik