Oh no, who will fund the invasion of the southern border and the fight for reparations now?

ouch

Chickenspicy wrote: Mon May 15, 2023 10:33 pm ouch

New York State on the Skids.

Chickenspicy wrote: Mon May 15, 2023 10:33 pm ouch

Ouch......

The numbers: The New York Fed’s Empire State business conditions index, a gauge of manufacturing activity in the state, plunged 42.6 points in May to negative 31.8, the regional Fed bank said Monday.
Economists had expected a reading of negative 5, according to a survey by the Wall Street Journal.
Any reading below zero indicates deteriorating conditions.

Key details: The index for new orders dropped 53.1 points to negative 28 in May, reversing completely a sharp 46.7 point gain in April.
The shipments index fell 40.3 points to negative 16.4, almost reversing a 37.3 gain in the prior month.
Unfilled orders fell 13.2 points to negative 13.2
The measure of expectations six months ahead ticked up 3.2 points to 9.8 in May.

Big picture: Last month, the Empire State index exceeded expectations and jumped 35.4 points to 10.8. Today’s decline wiped out all that improvement and adds to fears about a recession.
The recent volatility in the data has been a puzzle for economists. In general, there is widespread pessimism about the manufacturing sector. Higher interest rates have cooled capital spending and overseas activity has been tepid. Even China’s reopening from COVID has not been a spark for manufacturing that many expected.

Oh, they shipped so many weapons and Billions to the Ukraine. And they are manufacturing a lot more. Doesn't that count!?.....

Ogee wrote: Mon May 15, 2023 4:00 pm


Oh no, who will fund the invasion of the southern border and the fight for reparations now?

to compile economic information

we would take the last three to four numbers for previous numbers
add them all together and divide them by the amount of them 3-4

then when the new number comes out we see that number if it is above the average

and also plot it on a scale in between the range of the previous, which is the highest number minus the lowest previous numbers
id say the rest is out of the know unless because it has to do with minds

then the rest is up to technicals

Chickenspicy wrote: Mon May 15, 2023 10:33 pm ouch

EJ Antoni @RealEJAntoni
From NY Fed: empire state manufacturing survey has biggest drop ever, Apr data was just blip on radar, as expected; new orders plummet, price increases remain, future capital expenditures drop to zero, general conditions near '09 lows, labor still falling - this is Stagflation:

Ogee wrote: Tue May 16, 2023 12:43 am

this over demand too right?

Chickenspicy wrote: Tue May 16, 2023 1:03 am this over demand too right?

So stagflation is just saying there is inflation during a stagnant economy which shouldn't happen normally. The near term forward spread is the difference between current market treasury yield and the 18 month futures yield and that it's below zero means it's inverted and so predicting not a 'soft landing' but a stock market crash and a recession. But in the past the recession comes after the spread climbs back up above zero and no longer inverted so for timing worth keeping an eye on.

Ogee wrote: Tue May 16, 2023 2:15 am Stagflation is just saying there is inflation during a stagnant economy which shouldn't happen normally.

Best definition for "stagflation". Thanks for explaining it in layman's terms Ogee!

No doubt, we'll be hearing this strange word quite often now.