Re: GARCH Volatility Predictor

11
Jimmy wrote: Sun Mar 20, 2022 11:48 pm This is the latest version that was upgraded with additional features by Mrtools (as posted here).
I'd love to say something positive about this indicator because - again and again - people have tried to propagate its "usefulness".
But - sadly - it is no use in actual trading whatsoever. I have not come across one single person - as yet - who actually found it applicable to any system.
I know I may be totally wrong.
[Whenever somebody claims that this or that can be done, but cannot actually show you how and under what conditions she or he did/does this: remain extremely scepitcal.]
{It reminds me of the guy who repeatedly claimed he is almost about to make 100% per day for a longer period of time. Whatever else may be wrong with him, he certainly doesn't understand the concept of exponential growth.}
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Jimmy


Re: GARCH Volatility Predictor

12
josi wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:28 am I'd love to say something positive about this indicator because - again and again - people have tried to propagate its "usefulness".
But - sadly - it is no use in actual trading whatsoever. I have not come across one single person - as yet - who actually found it applicable to any system.
I know I may be totally wrong.
[Whenever somebody claims that this or that can be done, but cannot actually show you how and under what conditions she or he did/does this: remain extremely scepitcal.]
{It reminds me of the guy who repeatedly claimed he is almost about to make 100% per day for a longer period of time. Whatever else may be wrong with him, he certainly doesn't understand the concept of exponential growth.}
As with most indicators its purpose is to make your decision making easier, so if you indecisive wether to take a trade or not, its input about volatility low/high might help for a few to push them to a decision.
An experienced Trader can certainly "see" if the current environment is Volatile or not and can make his decision based on that, BUT if you aim for an indicator based system that uses as less discretion as possible it CAN be a good indicator to use to enforce consistency with the entries you are taking.
Watch how in this example Chart how on 2 of those entries the Garch SPIKED high, so essentially you dont care at all what the garch shows you until you get an Entry and then the higher the Garch spikes on the given entry the higher your confidence can grow (maybe confidence isnt the right word, but you get the point)

So I can agree that the Garch has very little usage the more discretionary your trading is and gains more usage the less discretionary your trading is and then it additionally depends on how/when you are entering the Market. So overall its very difficult to either find the right settings or the right volume indicator that find any meaning in your trading.
These users thanked the author PumbaPLS for the post (total 4):
josi, Jimmy, keys898, Jedidiah
You cannot solve a problem from the same consciousness that created it. You must learn to see the world anew

Re: GARCH Volatility Predictor

15
josi wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:28 am {It reminds me of the guy who repeatedly claimed he is almost about to make 100% per day for a longer period of time. Whatever else may be wrong with him, he certainly doesn't understand the concept of exponential growth.}
To finish of this thought:
He still claims he is making anything between 60 and 80 percent per day:
This is what he should have made over 30 days, had he started with a thousand bucks (and made "only" 60% per day):

1000
1600
2560
4096
6554
10486
16777
26844
42950
68719
109951
175922
281475
450360
720576
1152922
1844674
2951479
4722366
7555786
12089258
19342813
30948501
49517602
79228163
126765060
202824096
324518554
519229686
830767497
1329227996
2126764793

Need I say more?
These users thanked the author josi for the post:
Jedidiah


Re: GARCH Volatility Predictor

16
PumbaPLS wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:36 am As with most indicators its purpose is to make your decision making easier, so if you indecisive wether to take a trade or not, its input about volatility low/high might help for a few to push them to a decision.
An experienced Trader can certainly "see" if the current environment is Volatile or not and can make his decision based on that, BUT if you aim for an indicator based system that uses as less discretion as possible it CAN be a good indicator to use to enforce consistency with the entries you are taking.

TrainingChart.png

Watch how in this example Chart how on 2 of those entries the Garch SPIKED high, so essentially you dont care at all what the garch shows you until you get an Entry and then the higher the Garch spikes on the given entry the higher your confidence can grow (maybe confidence isnt the right word, but you get the point)

So I can agree that the Garch has very little usage the more discretionary your trading is and gains more usage the less discretionary your trading is and then it additionally depends on how/when you are entering the Market. So overall its very difficult to either find the right settings or the right volume indicator that find any meaning in your trading.
Would you post your indicators and template please?
More smiling, less worrying. More compassion, less judgment. More blessed, less stressed. More love, less hate.


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