Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#10062
Hello everyone!! Thank you for all your replies, it is much appreciated. If anyone was confused as to what I was describing, here is a picture showing the issue. https://www.screencast.com/t/GLSPrnvA2 . The yellow arrows is where the Orange ZZ line was, as you can see the 2 short trades that Xard pointed out were "against" the orange ZZ since it was on the bottom when he took the trade. Also, Xard mentions to take "meat off the bone" when you get next semafor (white line or orange ZZ) but how would that be possible if it's already on the bottom and you're trading against it? Just trying to clear up some of the rules for myself and potentially other members that have the same questions!

All the Best

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#10063
harveyspecter wrote:
Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:27 am
Hello everyone!! Thank you for all your replies, it is much appreciated. If anyone was confused as to what I was describing, here is a picture showing the issue. https://www.screencast.com/t/GLSPrnvA2 . The yellow arrows is where the Orange ZZ line was, as you can see the 2 short trades that Xard pointed out were "against" the orange ZZ since it was on the bottom when he took the trade. Also, Xard mentions to take "meat off the bone" when you get next semafor (white line or orange ZZ) but how would that be possible if it's already on the bottom and you're trading against it? Just trying to clear up some of the rules for myself and potentially other members that have the same questions!

All the Best

That’s why xard said to wait till the second dots.. anyway let me try to explain my take on why those trades are valid.

Let’s break it down to a couple parts..

Part 1:
98727352-5F2F-4EA4-A7CB-F3E688979E87.jpeg
So, the big semafor is on the place where you put that yellow arrow. At this point in time, the big semafor just says “hey price might go up now” and that’s all. However, if you take PA into consideration, you can see that previous semafors (circled in yellow) making lower lows and lower highs, and therefore I would have taken the sell trade too.


Part 2:
9639DDB4-C0D8-45D6-8D67-59AC1D79804E.png
Now moving on to second part. If the big semafor was at the first yellow arrow, it WILL continue to repaint once the price has crossed below the yellow line I highlighted. However, just as above reason, the PA is still making lower lows and lower highs, and I would have taken this trade as well. Why? Price tries to break the daily open line, and got rejected off it nicely with a large down candle just after the red semafor, then continuing its downtrend. Also, take a look the the blue candles.. they have long top wicks which shows that the sellers are still going strong, stopping price from going up.

Part 3:
6A07A94F-3EF2-4FC9-AA89-762C9AD3CB29.jpeg
Now, at this point the big semafor has already repainted many times, and I hope the above explanation helps you to understand it. At this point, I personally will stop taking any trades until something is confirmed by either a breakout or any other PA stuff. The reason being price has formed a double top (highlighted line) which states that’s a decent resistance level. Just look at how everytime it touches it, it just gets rejected off with a big fat down candle.


Anyhow this is just my take on how this system works, and that’s why I mentioned previously not to use any semafors as signals. Instead, use them with other PA and trend confirmation stuff before entering. Also, the posts above this has mentioned a simulator.. maybe you can use that to help you understand better how this entire system works. Took me awhile too but still manage to get it.

This system shows you the road.. you’ll need to find a good entry/exit strategy to make this work right. I’ll suggest to start with the RSIMA on v13..

As of Right now I’m still working on my exit strategy….

Edit : I don’t know how xard manages to pull off exiting at the green dots on a sell trade.. but from a guess standpoint I think he’ll bail once the subwindow line crosses up.. or something like that

Hope this helps

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#10064
As soon as there was a break of support ( annotated 1) I took sell.

We had a golden nugget to support No.2. But my risk was comparatively lesser on this trade

than this morning trade. Reason : No.4 was a big semaphore.

Hence my target was confluence of No.3 pivot support and 2/8th Murray Math. With this trade i made my 1% today.
Capture8.JPG

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#10065
s4jikian wrote:
Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:34 am
That’s why xard said to wait till the second dots.. anyway let me try to explain my take on why those trades are valid.

Let’s break it down to a couple parts..

Part 1:
Image


So, the big semafor is on the place where you put that yellow arrow. At this point in time, the big semafor just says “hey price might go up now” and that’s all. However, if you take PA into consideration, you can see that previous semafors (circled in yellow) making lower lows and lower highs, and therefore I would have taken the sell trade too.


Part 2:
Image


Now moving on to second part. If the big semafor was at the first yellow arrow, it WILL continue to repaint once the price has crossed below the yellow line I highlighted. However, just as above reason, the PA is still making lower lows and lower highs, and I would have taken this trade as well. Why? Price tries to break the daily open line, and got rejected off it nicely with a large down candle just after the red semafor, then continuing its downtrend. Also, take a look the the blue candles.. they have long top wicks which shows that the sellers are still going strong, stopping price from going up.

Part 3:
Image


Now, at this point the big semafor has already repainted many times, and I hope the above explanation helps you to understand it. At this point, I personally will stop taking any trades until something is confirmed by either a breakout or any other PA stuff. The reason being price has formed a double top (highlighted line) which states that’s a decent resistance level. Just look at how everytime it touches it, it just gets rejected off with a big fat down candle.


Anyhow this is just my take on how this system works, and that’s why I mentioned previously not to use any semafors as signals. Instead, use them with other PA and trend confirmation stuff before entering. Also, the posts above this has mentioned a simulator.. maybe you can use that to help you understand better how this entire system works. Took me awhile too but still manage to get it.

This system shows you the road.. you’ll need to find a good entry/exit strategy to make this work right. I’ll suggest to start with the RSIMA on v13..

As of Right now I’m still working on my exit strategy….

Edit : I don’t know how xard manages to pull off exiting at the green dots on a sell trade.. but from a guess standpoint I think he’ll bail once the subwindow line crosses up.. or something like that

Hope this helps
Thank you for your personal feedback. I completely understand that the Orange ZZ repaints and "why" you would take the trade. Here is what Xard says https://www.screencast.com/t/F9WTHLrLLKM. So even though it repaints and price will probably continue to make lower lows you shouldn't be taking it against the orange ZZ since it was on the bottom in real time. Hopefully Xard can clear up any misconceptions about this. I know you trade it differently but I am solely talking about why Xard would take these trades since it's clearly against what hey says to do.


Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#10066
He clearly says @ After a new orange is formed...wait for the trend to change !! There is no misconception.

New orange semaphore is confirmed only after the 2nd dot or break of trend line with good momentum.

Assume the semaphores as S/D areas. Once it breaks it goes bit further away !! You will then sleep well :)

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#10068
harveyspecter wrote:
Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:58 am
Thank you for your personal feedback. I completely understand that the Orange ZZ repaints and "why" you would take the trade. Here is what Xard says https://www.screencast.com/t/F9WTHLrLLKM. So even though it repaints and price will probably continue to make lower lows you shouldn't be taking it against the orange ZZ since it was on the bottom in real time. Hopefully Xard can clear up any misconceptions about this. I know you trade it differently but I am solely talking about why Xard would take these trades since it's clearly against what hey says to do.
Ahh, if this is it, then I think he replied to your post a couple pages back.
Capture.PNG


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