Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#8491
FourXXXX wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:47 pm
I am risking no more than 0.5% on each trade, I will increase that as I get better with this system. So I would have to be wrong more than 28 times to lose 14%.
So you figure 14% is the max. dropdown you could live with (for the time being).
How did you reach the number 28? Did you back- and forward-test your win rate and know that this is your probable worst case scenario (very professional) or is it just a random number you came up with (very gambling-style)?
Not being mathematically-minded I may be wrong but I think it would be less than 14% dropdown (taking the original sum as the basis of calculation) because as you continue to lose the total sum of your capital decreases: therefore 0.5% would be less and less each time.
And then again, of course, there'd be the cost of trading (broker, market order vs limit order etc).


Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#8493
josi wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:51 pm
So you figure 14% is the max. dropdown you could live with (for the time being).
How did you reach the number 28? Did you back- and forward-test your win rate and know that this is your probable worst case scenario (very professional) or is it just a random number you came up with (very gambling-style)?
Not being mathematically-minded I may be wrong but I think it would be less than 14% dropdown (taking the original sum as the basis of calculation) because as you continue to lose the total sum of your capital decreases: therefore 0.5% would be less and less each time.
And then again, of course, there'd be the cost of trading (broker, market order vs limit order etc).
I never said 14% is the maximum I could live with that is @Kenrobert1's number.

Yes, I agree with this,

"Not being mathematically-minded I may be wrong but I think it would be less than 14% dropdown (taking the original sum as the basis of calculation) because as you continue to lose the total sum of your capital decreases: therefore 0.5% would be less and less each time."

Go back and read the post again a little more carefully before you try to criticize me, this is what I said: "So I would have to be wrong more than 28 times to lose 14%." CAPISCE!

As for brokerage costs that is already factored into the 0.5% risk by my EA that I use for placing trades.


What do you hope to gain with your criticism of me and others on here? In future, I will not be responding to your trolling!
"If you only knew the magnificence of the 3, 6 and 9, then you would have the key to the universe" Nikola Tesla

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#8494
josi wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:51 pm
So you figure 14% is the max. dropdown you could live with (for the time being).
How did you reach the number 28? Did you back- and forward-test your win rate and know that this is your probable worst case scenario (very professional) or is it just a random number you came up with (very gambling-style)?
Not being mathematically-minded I may be wrong but I think it would be less than 14% dropdown (taking the original sum as the basis of calculation) because as you continue to lose the total sum of your capital decreases: therefore 0.5% would be less and less each time.
And then again, of course, there'd be the cost of trading (broker, market order vs limit order etc).
Hi Josi,
I think you have the wrong end of the stick. FourXXXX is just showing the courtesy of replying and informing another user that he uses half a percent as his risk per trade. So a rough 14% x 1/2 = 28. Simple math I think.

I see you are a senior member and I am fairly new in posting to this forum (even though I have been following for a while now). The question I have for you is whether you realise you are being very negative - I think this is called "Trolling".

Can I ask, what is it exactly that you are contributing to the conversation? Or was this just a brain-fart?
Troll: a person who intentionally antagonizes others online by posting inflammatory, irrelevant, or offensive comments or other disruptive. Internet users adopted the word "troll" to denote someone who intentionally disrupts online communities.
Mattathias Schwartz

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#8495
FourXXXX wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:44 pm
What do you hope to gain with your criticism of me and others on here? In future, I will not be responding to your trolling!
Here we go again - "trolling"
What else is new?
"buy the dip" and "trolling": what has this thread come to?
You do what you have to do, pal!


Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#8496
Musashi wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:45 pm
So a rough 14% x 1/2 = 28. Simple math I think.
Maybe too simple maths, really.
Do you think "brainfart" is an insult? Or is it "trolling"?
Isn't it at all interesting how FourXXXX (or is it XXXX) arrived at 28 (not 21, 13 or 86)?

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#8499
Josi Mate,

If you are interested in this system please post charts and your learning.

We can learn from each other. That is what Fourxxx and some of us are doing here.

We could be right or wrong but we are learning.

Ask yourself : What am I doing?

Regards With Due Respects
SK

ChartRe: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#8500
Missed Entry 1, and 2, ( because of my other half), but got in on 3 for my 3rd and last trade for the day.

Yes, could have gotten in earlier, but higher risk and no clear confirmation from higher time frames.

I'm out with just over 6% - happy with the day, even happier with the consistency ;)

Thanks folks
Thanks Xard

Time for dinner
AUS200 1 September 2021 (Trade3).png
Troll: a person who intentionally antagonizes others online by posting inflammatory, irrelevant, or offensive comments or other disruptive. Internet users adopted the word "troll" to denote someone who intentionally disrupts online communities.
Mattathias Schwartz


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