The total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Cadanidan dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the unemployment rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher unemployment rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. We need both to deviate in the same direction to create a trade. Today, it's nice to have one of these rare occurrences that don't come out with the highly anticipated NFP report. This data is Hot data, and we could get some pip's again today.
Historic Deviations and Their Outcome
March 12 2021 We saw a healthy + 184k positive deviation on the headline data Employment Change. With a positive 1% change in the Unemployment rate, which created a trade for me, I took on EURCAD to avoid any conflict from US data that came out simultaneously. I banked a few pips.
February 5 2021 We had NFP simultaneously; however, big devs worked slowly on EURCAD and USDCAD. We couldn't trade this simultaneously as NFP as NFP is likely to overshadow this report.
October 9 2020 We also had the same setup as of today and March, where this report doesn't come out with NFP; however, the forecast range was much broader. We still saw a good move on CAD pairs, although this was all over in the first minute.
My Forecasts For Today
Empl Chg - Full Time 0
Employment Change 100
Unemployment Rate 8.0
Today's Trade Plan
We have to look at the three main lines.
Employment Change = Shows how many jobs were gained or added in the last month.
Full Time= How many of those jobs were Full time because they have less value to the economy if they are part-time.
Unemployment = More Unemployment is bad, and less is good.
If we get a deviation from Employment change of around +75 (This is the key line of data)
Add to that a +20 Full Time
And 0.2+- from Unemployment
Then we should see some great moves.
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
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