Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

1254
I'm trying out the new system today. Wasn't able to find any opportunities on HK50 and DOW so I went to check out currencies and saw a good opportunity.

So I placed an buy order based on the semafor, which is the red dots at the bottom, around the second white/blue dot level, after the candle turns blue.

But for some reason the pair keep breaking through the second white dot and recalculate, causing huge losses multiple times. Not sure why is it doing that. Now there are no more second white dots anymore. But I'm stuck in the positions that I placed. What am I doing wrong? How can I prevent such issue from happening in future?

I've drawn the previous second white/blue dots position to the best of my memory using yellow brush.

Thanks
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Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

1255
navlem wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:40 pm I'm trying out the new system today. Wasn't able to find any opportunities on HK50 and DOW so I went to check out currencies and saw a good opportunity.

So I placed an buy order based on the semafor, which is the red dots at the bottom, around the second white/blue dot level, after the candle turns blue.

But for some reason the pair keep breaking through the second white dot and recalculate, causing huge losses multiple times. Not sure why is it doing that. Now there are no more second white dots anymore. But I'm stuck in the positions that I placed. What am I doing wrong? How can I prevent such issue from happening in future?

I've drawn the previous second white/blue dots position to the best of my memory using yellow brush.

Thanks

Welcome to trading.


Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

1257
Another example of another bad trade today.

Bought XAUUSD just now on the second white dot on the M30 chart, it pushed through the second white dot. And as we speak, it pushed through the bullish red semafor too.

I took this screenshot just before it pushed downwards through the red semafor.

I'm not sure if I'm doing something wrong or what. Anybody can advise?
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Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

1258
Today on the 30 min we were waiting for price to come down on both HK & DOW to make a blue dot on the 30 min
Then we watch the 1 min and wait for the 2nd White Dot off our Blue Dot.
We now have our entry BUY trades on both HK & DOW
Enclosed charts for your perusal
Xard777

PS Yes, there was mega scalping trades inside the HK orange box today but if we simply look at trading the 30 min and picking up our best entry off the 1 min then we are still trading off the 30 min BIAS - Now a new Red Dot has appeared on the 30 min so our BIAS should now be down when the next 2nd white dot appears on 1 min, 5 min etc..
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XARD: If Carlsberg made charts... Probably the best charts in the world

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

1259
xard777 wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:58 am In a nutshell - we want to trade from 30 min Red Semafor to 30 min Green Semafor to 30 min Red Semafor Ad Infinitum.
However, our Semafors have a tendency to recalc so a way around this is to use the 2nd White Dot to confirm the possibility that the current Semafor will no longer recalc and we can therefore make our trade to the next Green/Red Semafor with impunity. The problem that exists is that the 2nd White Dot can also recalc, it may not even turn up on the 1min chart and sometimes not even on the 5min chart and sometimes not even on the 15 min chart. That's sometimes, in most cases it will appear on one or two TFs below the 30 min and allow us to commit a trade towards the next Semafor on the 30 min TF (Woohoo kerching).

I got temporarily bogged down looking for a retracement of the 2nd White Dot towards the 61% and 78% zone level and missed out of some golden opportunities. It turns out that the 2nd white Dot can appear at as little as the 30% retracement level and hold the line then reverse and continue on the main trend.
The problem here is if we then enter at this level only to see price retrace back to 61% (or even 99%) can be a lot to swallow on the negative side - a position that none of us want to be in. I am finding that the 5min chart is giving us our best 2nd White Dot from which to trade toward our 30 Min Semafor. Hence, the 30 min & 5 min charts on my trading screen.
Hopefully other traders will see this and perhaps we can have a workaround for any inconsistencies along the way.
All the best
Xard777

PS Here is what the latest setup will look like...
Here we have the 30 Min chart showing 5 min White Dots, 15 min Blue Dots and 30 min Semafor Red Dots (Red Dots will cover up both white & blue Dots on the chart).
The 15 Min blue Dots are same as 5 min white Dots but showing on the 15 min TF - so in theory you are looking for the Highest/Lowest white or blue 2nd Dot from which to trade to the next Red Dot

This way you can simply stay on the 30 min chart at all times and get to trade the smaller TF 2nd Dots (be it 5 min or 15 min).

THIS IS HOW I WOULD TRADE THIS SETUP
Dear Xard,
I. Let me address your intuitively dismissed retracement level idea with some quite strong quantitative confirmation of your decision (not mine, but the author of the course I posted; sorry I remembered it vaguely, but couldn't find it sooner, as it wasn't in the course or the book, but a blogpost):
"In fact, if you take an objective look at retracements, you’ll start to see something interesting. Retracements can “kinda stop anywhere” in the previous swing, but, on average, they retrace “about half, maybe a little more”. In all my years of trading, I haven’t found a more reliable rule than that, and it’s also borne out in quantitative testing." "This chart shows swing retracements across the horizontal axis. (E.g., 60 means that the swing retraced 60% of the previous swing.) You can see that the peak is somewhere around 60%, with a very wide margin of error."
In the blogpost (especially below the section 'Buying pullbacks'):

II. XARD: Should we wait for the corrected package, or is it usable (can I set it on 5 mins autorefresh somewhere)?

III. navlem: these dots aren't carved in stone. You shouldn't jump on the gun like a too fast lover, but wait for some kind of confirmation: e.g. candle formation, or at least use a limit order (and not an immediate market order) above (long), or below (short), the entry candle to give chance that it doesn't go immediately against you

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

1260
navlem wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:55 pm Another example of another bad trade today.

Bought XAUUSD just now on the second white dot on the M30 chart, it pushed through the second white dot. And as we speak, it pushed through the bullish red semafor too.

I took this screenshot just before it pushed downwards through the red semafor.

I'm not sure if I'm doing something wrong or what. Anybody can advise?
ok
1. pink (sell) candles
2. red/purple background
3. red tma/cg thing
4. red MA

i would have seen the trend is short and said, right ill wait to see the retest of the prior swing low (green semafor) is broken.

and

zoom out - what happened on the left? support isnt til 1548, 1540.

I have said it many times here, you cannot chuck out the basics of trading and put this in its place, it sits on top and many people cannot get that. Hence chasing price round like this and saying which dot this dot that dot. ZZ repaints end of story.

you are trading against shadows who use machines - generally they will continue doing more of what just happened, they will seek to break you.
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