Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

1192
xard777 wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:07 am Hi everyone,

My apologies for not being on the thread lately but I have been busy trading HK50 during the first couple of hours of opening in the Asia time and trading the Dow during the first couple of hours of it opening in the US time. In between I catch up on sleep.

I know a lot of people like to trade the 4hrs charts but that tends to involve carry trades that I try to stay away from as sooner or later you end up getting caught in some kind of backlash that will be devastating for your account.

Most traders will opt for 1hr trading and very few will look at 1min but I would like to point out that if you make 100 pips on one trade then you have some leeway with your next trade and so on. If we can identify when the market moves then we can close in on potential trades with a high success rate.

Take a look at today's trades during the first couple of hours of the Dow opening bell - marked with an orange box - there was in excess of +500 Pip$ in trades after price had crossed the trend line on the 1min. OK, I am not saying that you will go out and make all these trades each and every day, but the potential to gleam a couple of hundred Pip$ during the first couple of hours of the opening bell is possible. The plus side is that you are in and out of your positions inside two hours - no risk of a carry trade which means you get to sleep like a baby, rested and ready for the next day's trading.

One other thing, watch closely the green/red Semafors for BIAS CHANGE - expect PRICE TO HOLD at the 2nd white Dot off these green/red Semafors followed by a MASSIVE move off the 2nd white Dot (usually towards the next green/red Semafor. This strategy applies to ALL time frames but plays out much quicker on the smaller TFs. - sorry for the rush job with the graphics but my dinner is ready.

IF YOU WANT TO BE 100% SUCCESSFUL WITH YOUR TRADING THEN SIMPLY TRADE OFF THE 2ND WHITE DOT

All the best
Xard
Dear Xard,
:D You shouldn’t apologize for anything, for living your own life especially after your generous offerings.
Trading strategy: your advice (in bold characters) is the one strategy I settled on: trading pullbacks (countertrend breaks) in trends. According to my investigation this is one of the most (maybe the most) consistent strategy!
I think most of the questioners can settle now (if they can comprehend that the Holy Grail is something like this). And your set-up can be a good tool to identify these spots, when a temporary counter move switches back into the direction of the main trend move.
Timeframe: You are totally spot on many of us would prefer higher timeframes – not because they are better (maybe easier to manage), but they require less time commitment as we also have other pressing activities (maybe later, if trading could totally make up for regular jobs the preference can change rapidly).
But if I understand your remarks well: the 20200130-package can be used on also H1 (or H4), can’t it? Are there any modifications to be made to have a proper set-up for H1?
Exit- leaving too much on the table: maybe you should focus on partial close where you generally close, and let the other half with trailing stop.
Challenge: I try to participate in testing the recent set-up with the ‘2nd white dot’-strategy you announced, though I will be quite busy right from the beginning of February till mid March, that’s why it might be easier for me to use higher timeframe like H1.
MMath-lines: sorry if I'm persistent, but unfortunately they are good for indices, and gold, but labels are still missing for currencies...
(HK50: Hong Kong market opens at 2:30AM for me, sorry, if I settle on others like DAX :) )

XARD: Yes, the strategy will work fine on H1 however, there will be times when you end up with a carry trade on the 1hr and to be honest I would prefer to be in control of my trading at ALL times and not leave it to chance. Plus, it is much easier and quicker to pick up the 2nd White Dot on the 5 min TF (usually several times during the trading session) and win big on Pip$ that pay out better than your local ATM. By nature we tend to take our profits way too early and watch in awe as the market shows off and continues to carry on without a care in the world (and without us) to new levels. How many times have we been a spectator only to see it run 500, 600, 700 Pip$ without us :-(

I know that Gann and Murrey both used the strategy where they would sell half their position at profit and let the remaining half run.

Well, we can now play it at it's own game by trading off the 2nd White Dot and staying in the trade all the way till it hits the black channel line (Payback is a bitch).

I know a lot of traders prefer to trade within their own timezone but if you make the effort to trade HK you will more than amply be rewarded.
The biggest payouts are from HK open till 10 am London time and yes there are other rewards in the DOW market as well - it is just a big lottery payout that retail traders never ever had before.
All the best
Xard777
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Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

1193
To help the beginners (and maybe Xard, so he doesn't have to face so much questions :) ) closing their knowledge gap, and form a more solid base I recommend you a free course teaching from the basics till you can totally get Xard's strategy of trading pullbacks. The author is Adam Grimes, who wrote The Art and Science of Technical Analysis: Market Structure, Price Action, and Trading Strategies. I have seen much weaker, scam courses sold for hundreds of $, so I think it fits Xard's generosity. You only have to register: PS: I hope it's OK to recommend a free course, if not pls delete.
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Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

1196
Hi Xard,

Thank you for being such an awesome human being. Your indicators are life changing. I will also be taking part in the "2nd white dot" challenge for the next 2 months.

I have a few questions though :

1. If I see multiple white dots in the chart, for example 6 white dots in a row, do I count the 2nd white dot, 4th white dot, and 6th white dot as "2nd white dot"? Or just purely the second white dot is the "2nd white dot"?
XARD: The multiple Dots will no doubt be at the same level and the 4th or 6th dot may well have breached the 2nd Dot level but still within an acceptable range where we then see price reverse and continue in the direction of the main trend move. In a perfect world we are looking for the second white dot to retrace between the region of 61.8% and 78.4%. However, in a chaos environment we will see the 2nd dot retrace as much as 99% or possibly only to as little as 45%. The principle remains the same just market chaos conditions playing out in our sterile 2nd Dot strategy is all.
Basically, it is not a perfect world and we try to fit it into our perfect model :-) When price crosses back down we should look at entering our trade. The colour candle system should back this up.

2. If ADR is a good indicator of what to trade (which is why you choose indices over currencies), would this work well on Bitcoin? Since it's even more volatile than indices based on ADR.
XARD: I do not see why it would not work on Bitcoin. That said, we know it works on indices.

3. I have encountered extreme repainting before, like the second white dot keep disappearing and readjusting to a new position as I keep opening new trades, even though I waited for the trend to change and the candles to change colour. How should I react in such situation?
XARD: If that happens a lot then I suggests that you increase the time frame, start at 1min, then 5 etc until you have found what works for you. Most times the 2nd wht dot works a treat on indices in ALL timeframes. I have stopped chasing currencies - my setup is primarily based on indices.

XARD: I have increased my trend lines to 89 EMA & 34 EMA to help eliminate false entry moves.
I will post that setup at a later date.

Once again, thank you for being awesome. I appreciate your help and time.
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Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

1197
I have traded and tested these pullbacks countless of times, The problem is risk management when it comes to lower time frames like m1 and m5 if you are new trader and just based your stop loss on the top semafor as you will be stopped out most of the times and small time frames will always give you an early start of trade where you wish you want to enter or wish you did not. Xard is at the top of his game and can easily tell where the direction bias is, Please use demo account and test countless of times. Here is an indicator to show you the previous semafors where they are formed.

XARD: Another reason why I watch the 30min and 5min - waiting and watching for reaction of the smaller tf in the direction of the larger tf... winner winner chicken dinner.
Also, in your picture in the orange box, you want to match your white dot with the change of the thick blue/red tma line
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Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

1198
markstep wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 5:34 pm I have traded and tested these pullbacks countless of times, The problem is risk management when it comes to lower time frames like m1 and m5 if you are new trader and just based your stop loss on the top semafor as you will be stopped out most of the times and small time frames will always give you an early start of trade where you wish you want to enter or wish you did not. Xard is at the top of his game and can easily tell where the direction bias is, Please use demo account and test countless of times. Here is an indicator to show you the previous semafors where they are formed.

XARD: Another reason why I watch the 30min and 5min - waiting and watching for reaction of the smaller tf in the direction of the larger tf... winner winner chicken dinner.
Also, in your picture in the orange box, you want to match your white dot with the change of the thick blue/red tma line
If you tested countless times (I surely did less) you know that there's no strategy with 100% win rate, we work with probabilities. We aim for an edge: a bigger probability of catching a good value trend move than a failed one. Pullbacks gives you a chance on getting in the market relatively cheap and with the potential of significant move in the right direction, BUT they might develop into complex (zigzag) pullbacks, or even the trend itself can also change. You have to plan for these events. E.g. complex pullbacks many times lead to even more robust trend moves, so you can even reenter, after your SL was hit. Work with a sensible risk level, and you won't be hurt by some losses (=price of winners).

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

1199
navlem wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:20 pm XARD: I have increased my trend lines to 89 EMA & 34 EMA to help eliminate false entry moves.
I will post that setup at a later date.
Dear XARD, I read about modifying the MAs, please consider sharing a final version that could be a fixed one, which remains more comparable over the Feb-March test period. (Huh, I really miss the arrows in the lower right corner showing the trend on most of the timeframes in the newest version... :) If I put that indicator (ADX-SAR) back, even with ADX HISTO the arrows still don't show up...)

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

1200
There was an interesting setup on the 4H chart from last week on the eur/aud. You can see how important it is to watch the TMA line. In the case of this trade, each time the price pulled back to the gold line the TMA was red above (we have an up bias), but when it changed to only blue it moved strongly to the upside. I am seeing how important it is to monitor this type of occurrence, especially when using the second dot strategy.
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