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EURUSD moves to daily highs near 1.1470 on upbeat CPI

#462
EUR/USD moves to daily highs near 1.1470 on upbeat CPI

  • Spot clinches fresh tops on flash EMU CPI.
  • Advanced Core CPI in Euroland seen higher in January.
  • US Non-farm Payrolls, ISM Manufacturing coming up next.

The sentiment around the shared currency has reverted the initial pessimism and is now lifting EUR/USD to new session peaks near 1.1470.

EUR/USD bid after positive CPI

The pair is seeing its upside renovated today after advanced inflation figures in the euro area surprised to the upside for the current month. In fact, tracked by the headline CPI, prices are seen rising 1.4% from a year earlier and 1.1% when comes to prices stripping food and energy costs.

The now better tone in the risk-associated space is also hurting the buck and dragging the US Dollar Index to fresh lows in the mid-95.00s.

Moving forward, US Non-farm Payrolls and the ISM Manufacturing would be in centre stage later in the NA session.

What to look for around EUR/USD

Recent Q4 GDP figures in Euroland coupled with today’s inflation figures sparked some optimism among traders, keeping up hopes that the ongoing slowdown in the region could be temporary. Politics in Euroland will also be a factor to have in mind in the next months, with EU parliamentary elections coming up in May and investors vigilant on the social scenario in France and populist developments in Italy. On the USD-side, the now neutral stance from the Fed carries the potential to limit occasional bullish attempts, while markets keep looking for clues regarding the timing of the end of the balance sheet run-off.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.19% at 1.1468 facing the next hurdle at 1.1514 (high Jan.31) seconded by 1.1515 (50% Fibo of the September-November drop) and finally 1.1569 (2019 high Jan.9). On the other hand, a break below 1.1434 (low Feb.1) would target 1.1422 (21-day SMA) en route to 1.1390 (55-day SMA).

Screen Shot 2019-02-01 at 11.36.43-636846142233343087.png

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-m ... 1902011037
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EURUSD stuck at 1.1440 following EMU data

#463
EUR/USD parked around 1.1440 following EMU data

  • The pair trades within a tight range near 1.1440.
  • DXY approaches the 95.80 region, or daily highs.
  • EMU Sentix index dropped to -3.7 in February.

The mood around the shared currency stays somewhat depressed on Monday, with EUR/USD parked around the 1.1440 area so far.

EUR/USD weaker on EMU data

The pair remains confined to trade within a narrow range today amidst the continuation of the improved tone around the greenback, particularly following Friday’s report on the US labour market and auspicious results from the ISM manufacturing and the U-Mich index.

Earlier in the session, EMU’s Investor Confidence tracked by the Sentix index dropped further to -3.7 for the current month from -1.5 and -1.1 forecasted. Still in Euroland, Producer Prices contracted 0.8% MoM in December and rose 3.0% from a year earlier, both prints missing expectations.

Later in the NA session, November’s Factory Orders will be the only release of note.

What to look for around EUR/USD

The extent and duration of the slowdown in Euroland continues to be in centre stage following recent figures from Q4 GDP, while higher-than-expected advanced CPI figures in January appear to have sparked some optimism among investors. On the political side, the upcoming EU parliamentary elections (May) should start to gather extra interest, always with a close eye on the potential advance of populist views among members.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.08% at 1.1444 and a break below 1.1425 (21-day SMA) would target 1.1412 (10-day SMA) en route to 1.1406 (low Jan.30). On the other hand, the next hurdle emerges at 1.1514 (high Jan.31) seconded by 1.1515 (50% Fibo of the September-November drop) and finally 1.1569 (2019 high Jan.9).

Screen Shot 2019-02-04 at 11.41.47-636848737731822808.png

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-p ... 1902041043
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EURUSD grinds to session low after the European Commission slashes growth forecasts

#464
EURUSD grinds to session low after the European Commission slashes growth forecasts

The euro is catching up to the kiwi as the worst performing major currency today

7-2-2019-6-20-29-pm.png

The single currency slips to its lowest levels on the day against the dollar as the greenback pushes higher alongside some mild weakness in the euro following the European Commission's release of its latest growth forecasts. The low today for EUR/USD touches 1.1332.

We're now at a key area with support from the 3 January low @ 1.1338 also called upon and a dip below that will only see support close to 1.1300 as the next line of defense for buyers. The move lower here comes in conjunction with some negative pricing seen in European assets.

Often seen as an indication for rate hike expectations, the EUR 5Y inflation swap forward just fell to its weakest level since November 2016. That indicates that the market's long-term view of inflation expectations are dwindling and that doesn't bode well for any ECB rate hike pricing.

7-2-2019-6-18-06-pm.png

At the same time, we're also seeing the yields spread between Italy and Germany 10-year bonds widen to its highest level in almost two months, at 282 bps currently:

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... s-20190207
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EURUSD Technical Analysis: Rising odds for a test of YTD lows around 1.1290

#465
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Rising odds for a test of YTD lows around 1.1290

  • EUR/USD remains on the defensive, intensifying the bearish sentiment following the recent breakdown of the critical 200-week SMA in the 1.1330 region.
  • Further losses should meet strong support in the 1.1289/69 band in the near term, where coincide YTD lows and December 2018 lows. This area is expected to hold the downside.
  • On the other hand, a surpass of the key 100-day SMA at 1.1424 should mitigate the downside pressure.

Daily chart
Screen Shot 2019-02-11 at 09.52.24-636854720120748287.png

Overview:
Today Last Price: 1.1318
Today Daily change: 20 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.04%
Today Daily Open: 1.1322

Trends:
Daily SMA20: 1.1399
Daily SMA50: 1.14
Daily SMA100: 1.1425
Daily SMA200: 1.1544

Levels:
Previous Daily High: 1.1353
Previous Daily Low: 1.132
Previous Weekly High: 1.1462
Previous Weekly Low: 1.132
Previous Monthly High: 1.1586
Previous Monthly Low: 1.1289
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1333
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.134
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1311
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.13
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1279
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1343
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1364
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1375

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-t ... 1902110854
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Re: EUR/USD

#466
The pair is stuck in such consolidation that I don't know what fundamentals will be necessary for a breakout.

EURUSD finds some support ahead of mid-1.1200s amid a modest USD pullback

#467
EUR/USD finds some support ahead of mid-1.1200s amid a modest USD pullback

  • The shared currency remains depressed amid slowdown fears in the region’s core economies.
  • A modest USD profit-taking lends some support and eases the prevalent bearish pressure.

EURUSD-4-hours_Pro_real_time.png

The EUR/USD pair reversed an early European session dip to fresh 2019 lows and quickly recovered around 25-30 pips, albeit lacked any strong follow-through.

The pair extended its bearish trajectory from levels beyond the key 1.1500 psychological mark and lost some additional ground on Tuesday. The pair fell to an intraday low level of 1.1258 - the lowest level since Nov. 13, albeit managed to find some support at lower levels amid a modest US Dollar pull-back.

Despite a follow-through uptick in the US Treasury bond yields and news of the deal to avert a fresh government shutdown, the greenback failed to capitalize on the recent rally to multi-week tops and was seen as one of the key factors that extended some support to the major, at least for the time being.

The uptick, however, lacked any strong conviction and remained capped amid growing market concerns about the health of the Euro-zone's economic growth, further reaffirmed by Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann's comments this Tuesday, which now seems to have pushed the ECB's planned rate hike to 2020.

Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through recovery before confirming that the pair might have formed a near-term bottom and positioning for any further near-term appreciating move as the focus now shifts to scheduled speeches by several FOMC officials, including the Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Technical levels to watch

Overview:
Today Last Price: 1.1278
Today Daily change %: 0.02%
Today Daily Open: 1.1276

Trends:
Daily SMA20: 1.139
Daily SMA50: 1.1398
Daily SMA100: 1.1421
Daily SMA200: 1.1541

Levels:
Previous Daily High: 1.1332
Previous Daily Low: 1.1267
Previous Weekly High: 1.1462
Previous Weekly Low: 1.132
Previous Monthly High: 1.1586
Previous Monthly Low: 1.1289
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1292
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1307
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1252
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1228
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1188
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1316
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1356
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.138

Sources: (Chart) https://forex-station.com & (Article) https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-f ... 1902121146
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EURUSD: Bearish short-term technical - Scotiabank

#469
mlawson71 wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:29 am
Consolidation continues, I think it is possible it will form a double bottom at 1.1270.
Yes, agree!

EUR/USD: Bearish short-term technical - Scotiabank

EURUSD-Daily_Feb_13_Pro_real_time .png

Scotiabank’s analysts think that the short-term technical for EUR/USD are on the bearish side and traders should trade the currency pair with caution for the time being.

Key Quotes

“Momentum indicators are bearish and the DMI’s are confirming.”

“EUR appears to have broken the ascending channel from November and near-term support appears limited ahead of the November low around 1.1220.”

“We are somewhat cautious however, given that EUR continues to trade within the range and given that it has shown a remarkable ability to rally from the mid/upper-1.12s in several instances over the past few months.”

Sources: (Chart) https://forex-station.com & (Article) https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-b ... 1902130516
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Re: EUR/USD

#470
It does seem bearish but it has not broken out below 1.1270 so the possibility for a double bottom remains.



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