Re: GBP news

51
pdtech wrote: Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:35 am

Vp Explains how it works here.

The video is sensible. most of the time the traders sentiment is against the market trend. (and why its in this way refers to the philosophy of traders minds and herd behavior. which is not really the subject of this thread.)
In short as I remember it was around 11 or 12 years ago that a retail forex broker (fxcm) start to release its clients position on the net called "Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)". SSI has been released two times a day, short after fxcm some brokers released their clients position cumulative long and short ratio. (including: Oanda, Dukascopy bank, Alpari And Easyforex which later changed to easymarket ) after some years some of other brokers released the ratio too.
on the first days of SSI some traders had been started to analyzing the data. those days it was something unique. between mentioned brokers only fxcm oprator one time told that the SSI is a contrarian Indicator. while other mentioned brokers never explain more and stated that "these data are only the clients long/short ratio and we dont have any more explain".

after analyzing the long/short ratio by those traders and by another group later, these conclusion I remember have been made:
1- Most of the times the crowed is on the wrong side of the market/trend.(based on the long/short ratio.
2- on a long choppy market the Ratio is less reliable.
3- The Ratio is more reliable on FX majors.
4- Its better to use the average of position ratio of several brokers data not just one broker.
5- The Ratio has nothing to do with scalpers,
6-the best usage of long/short ratio is for swing trading strategies which involved longer duration.


above is the short story of Long/short Ratio as far as I remember.


GBPUSD gathering pace for a test of 1.3220 ahead of Carney

52
GBP/USD gathering pace for a test of 1.3220 ahead of Carney

  • Renewed Brexit optimism amid UK PM May’s plans, USD weakness remain supportive.
  • Will it test 1.3260 ahead of Carney’s speech, UK Parliament vote on another round of amendments holds the key.

The GBP/USD pair continuous to trade cautiously around the 1.32 handle, as the bulls await fresh Brexit-related headlines for a retest of three-month highs at 1.3217 reached last Friday.

Focus on UK Parliamentary vote on Brexit Plan B
Having faced rejection just shy of the multi-month highs above the 1.32 handle in early Asia, the spot retreated to 1.3190 levels before entering a phase of bullish consolidation, as markets digest the latest Brexit-related developments, with the Irish Foreign Minister Coveney having expressed no need for further compromise on the Irish border backstop.

Meanwhile, the sentiment around the pound also remains buoyed by the Sun News report, citing that the UK PM May privately told the Cabinet she will rule out a no deal Brexit.

The ongoing upbeat momentum around the Cable found extra legs on Friday following the reports that the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) decided to privately agree to support UK PM May’s ‘Plan B’ Brexit Deal.

Adding to it, the US dollar was broadly sold-off into a Dow Jones Newswires report that suggested the Fed would pause its balance sheet normalization sooner than expected. Moreover, dovish expectations from the FOMC decision due to be announced on Wednesday also keep the USD bulls on the back foot.

Looking ahead, the UK Parliamentary vote on the amendments to the UK PM May’s Brexit Plan B due tomorrow will remain in the spotlight, keeping the GBP traders on the edge. In the meantime, the BOE Governor Mark Carney’s speech due later today at 1430 GMT will be closely eyed for near-term trading impetus.

Carney is likely to participate in a question and answer session, along with other MPC members, about the future of money at the Bank of England's Future Forum, in London.

GBP/USD Technical Levels

Overview:
Today Last Price: 1.3206
Today Daily change: -7 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.05%
Today Daily Open: 1.3213

Trends:
Daily SMA20: 1.2852
Daily SMA50: 1.2765
Daily SMA100: 1.2898
Daily SMA200: 1.3062

Levels:
Previous Daily High: 1.3214
Previous Daily Low: 1.3053
Previous Weekly High: 1.3214
Previous Weekly Low: 1.283
Previous Monthly High: 1.284
Previous Monthly Low: 1.2477
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3152
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3114
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3106
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2999
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2945
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3266
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.332
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3427

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-g ... 1901280441
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎

GBPUSD weaker, looks to 1.3000 post-PMI

53
GBP/USD weaker, looks to 1.3000 post-PMI

  • Cable drops further in the wake of PMI figures.
  • Key Services PMI slipped back to 50.1 in January.
  • Brexit headlines remain absent ahead of the February 14 vote.

The selling pressure around the Sterling is now picking up pace and dragging GBP/USD to the vicinity of the psychological support at 1.3000 the figure.

GBP/USD offered on poor data

Cable is intensifying the weekly leg lower after the critical Services PMI came in below expectations at 50.1 in January, the lowest level since July 2016.

The sentiment around the British Pound has been deteriorating as of late following renewed pessimism and increasing uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations, all forcing spot to recede from last week’s 2019 highs above 1.3200 the figure.

Still on Brexit, UK’s PM Theresa May is expected to defend her plan to clinch a deal and avoid a ‘hard border scenario’ at today’s visit to Northern Ireland.

GBP/USD levels to consider

As of writing, the pair is losing 0.15% at 1.3016 facing the next support at 1.3000 (high Jan.17) seconded by 1.2965 (21-day SMA) and finally 1.2902 (100-day SMA). On the other hand, a break above 1.3089 (10-day SMA) will open the door to 1.3217 (2019 high Jan.25) and then 1.3257 (monthly high Oct.12 2018).


Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-w ... 1902050946
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎

LikeCable reverses to the best levels of the day on Carney

54
Cable reverses to the best levels of the day on Carney

Cable rises a full cent from the lows
Cable is in the midst of a solid turnaround.

After falling as low as 1.2854, the pair has jumped to 1.2960. Carney highlighted the "fog of Brexit" and warned about a no deal. He also said uncertainty is hurting the economy but the underlying message was optimism, especially if a deal is struck.

The pound is on a five-day losing streak and touched the worst level since Jan 22 but has turned around quickly and is now at a session high. A rise above 1.2979 would mark an outside day and a potential bottom.


Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/cable- ... y-20190207
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎


GBPUSD inches toward low from last week

56
mlawson71 wrote: Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:44 am Do you guys think it may rally above 1.3000 again?
It's heading south for now :thumbdown:

GBPUSD inches toward low from last week, and away from 100 day MA above

1.2853 was the low from Thursday

The GBPUSD is making a break to the downside. Earlier, I wrote how the pair was testing the 100 day MA and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.28909 and 1.28833 respectively, with a narrow trading range.

Now, the range for the day has been extended AND the price is moving away from those key MAs. Stay below, keeps the sellers in control. Move above and we could/should see some of the sellers taking profit. PS the 100 hour MA remains another ceiling that would need to be broken for the bulls to take more control.


So bears remain in control. The next target is the low from last week at 1.28531. A move below it will look toward the 50% of the move up from the Jan 2019 low at 1.28346.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... k-20190211
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎

GBPUSD buyers retain near-term control as Brexit deal hopes still in limbo

60
Cable buyers retain near-term control as Brexit deal hopes still in limbo

Cable holds just above 1.2900 as May continues to buy more time for a deal
The dollar recouped some of its losses earlier but was unable to hang on to them with price testing the 200-hour MA (blue line) before bouncing back up. There is some negative sentiment surrounding UK politics today as several Labour MPs are due to announce their resignation in the next half-hour or so over Brexit among other things.

That said, it's not likely to drive strong declines in the pound but it could present some fear that Brexit is continuing to form cracks in UK politics and that is something to be mindful about.

But just looking at price action in cable, buyers are still in near-term control but they are lacking much needed positive headlines to justify a break to the upside and build on the bullish momentum from Friday.

Currently, resistance from the swing region around 1.2925-30 is acting as a good cap to price gains; there's also the 200-bar MA on the H4 chart @ 1.2920. Offers are then seen closer to 1.2950 thereafter.

Despite the sentiment in the Labour party, things there are not likely to cause massive changes to the Brexit state of play. Theresa May is still buying more time to secure a last-minute Brexit deal and as such, the pound is left waiting on further developments in Westminster and Brussels before being able to find steady footing.

I still see the 1.3000 handle as being the mid-point in determining Brexit sentiment and I also still want to find a solid reason (technical or fundamental) to go long on the pound. As it stands, I would wait for more clues before rejoining the party here as fundamentally there isn't much reason to play either side now and technically, the near-term bullish bias isn't overwhelmingly strong either.

In any case, for near-term direction, look towards a further break above 1.2930 for buyers to extend gains. And for sellers, it's trying to find a break back below the 200-hour MA @ 1.2893 before targeting the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 1.2862.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... o-20190218
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Sogou [Bot] and 17 guests