GBPUSD volatility continues

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GBPUSD volatility continues (not surprising). Back near the middle of the range.

Lows from 2018 stall the early fall

The GBPUSD fell in the Asia-Pacific session and in doing so approached the lows for 2018 at 1.26612 (from August) and yesterday (at 1.2658). The low today reached 1.2670.


The holding above those lows suggested buyers were leaning against the lows. They won. The sellers turned to buyers. The price started to move back higher.

Technically, the rise took the price back above the some swing levels at 1.2747-53, the 100 hour MA (blue line) and the 200 hour MA (green line ) on the move to the 50% midpoint of the range since November 22 at 1.2792. The high reached 1.27965 (just below 1.2800).

What now?

We trade between the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.27514 and 1.27745. The hourly bars above the 200 hour MA have not been able to muster a close above the level. A trade might be to lean against the upper MA. You would hoping for a break below the 100 hour MA (and 1.27474 level).

The story in the GBPUSD is mostly focused on the Brexit vote on December 11. The horses will jockey for position. The traders will likely lean against lows and highs. Yesterday, the pair stopped near trend lines at the highs. Today and yesterday, the price stalled at year lows.

It can be a crap shot on where the levels are but if you see levels that make sense to you, they likely mean something to other traders as well. If you believe that traders lean to define and limit risk and "risk a little to make more than a little", you may "make more than a little" on your trades.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... e-20181205
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GBPUSD to face earnings data with Brexit vote off the table

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GBP/USD to face earnings data with Brexit vote off the table

  • PM May's refusal to submit her Withdrawal Proposal to the UK parliament yesterday will see plenty of Brexit rhetoric in the headlines today.
  • Earnings data is on the docket, but soft economic readings for the UK lately could see the Cable in a weakened position once again.

GBP/USD is currently grinding its way back above 1.2580 following Monday's decline from the 1.2770 region, fueled by the news that Prime Minister Theresa May would pulling her Brexit Withdrawal Proposal from the parliamentary vote that was slated for today in the UK's House of Commons, and the Cable heads into Tuesday that promises plenty of talking heads delivering a barrage of Brexit-focused headlines, as well as plenty of high-impact data on the offering.

With Tuesday's Brexit deal vote now canceled by PM May, who pulled the proposal off of the table after it became clear that her divorce bill had no hope of passing in the UK parliamentary vote, the focus will now be on what the next steps of Brexit will be as May heads back to Brussels in a bid to secure further concessions from European Union leaders, who have so far given very little middle ground.

Key UK data will be dropping early in the London market session, with Average Earnings, ILO Unemployment, and Claimant Counts all dropping at 09:30 GMT. Average Earning (excluding bonuses) for the 3rd quarter are expected to hold steady at 3.2%, alongside the ILO Unemployment Rate, which is forecast to remain at 4.1%, while the Claimant Count Change from October was seen at 20.2 thousand, but the key reading for the day will be earnings, and a flubbed release could easily see the Cable take another header below 1.2500.

GBP/USD Levels to watch
The Sterling's corrective bounce following PM May's withdrawal of her divorce bill sees limited upside, and as FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik noted, shortside interest remains strong:

"The GBP/USD pair bounced from the mentioned low but just in corrective mode after hitting 1.25, and by no means changing the negative technical stance. Having spent the second half of the last week struggling with a daily descendant trend line, it finally fell below it, now trading over 100 pips from it. In the 4 hours chart, a bearish 20 SMA converges with the mentioned trend line, as technical indicators maintain their downward slopes around oversold readings, signaling strong selling interest. The next big support, should the 1.2500 figure gets broken, is the 1.2330/5 price zone, where the pair has multiple weekly lows and highs back from 2016 and 2017. "

Support levels: 1.2500 1.2465 1.2430

Resistance levels: 1.2590 1.2640 1.2675

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-t ... 1812110459
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Sterling pressured with Brexit can kicked further down the road

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Sterling pressured with Brexit can kicked further down the road


Market Overview

The uncertainty in UK politics surrounding Brexit is enormous. Often with events, uncertainty comes into a binary pattern of potential events. However, with Brexit, there is such an array of potential scenarios that could play out that it is almost impossible to predict. What happens in situations of such significant uncertainty? Sell now and figure it all out later. UK Gilt yields falling sharply are not helping the pound either. This seems to be the path for sterling right now. The end result determines the means, right? Well, in this instance, it may not be the case, as Theresa May has succumbed to domestic pressure surrounding the seemingly unacceptable elements of the Withdrawal Agreement deal with the EU-27 (i.e. she cannot be the deal voted through on the current numbers). So she will go back to the EU and try to extract more concessions from the EU. It would be quite something if this proves to be successful in any substantive way, but this is likely to be a futile attempt. Cue analogies of cans being kicked down the road. Whilst this happens, today’s “meaningful vote” has been postponed and the UK remains in limbo/purgatory over the true outcome on Brexit. The volatility on sterling shows no sign of letting up.

Read more: https://www.hantecfx.com/sterling-press ... -the-road/
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GBPUSD Analysis: Trades Sideways

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GBP/USD Analysis: Trades Sideways

During Tuesday’s trading session, the currency exchange rate was resisted by the 55-hour SMA to pass through the support levels of the monthly S1 and the weekly S2 . During Wednesday’s morning hours, the British Pound was located between the weekly S2 and the weekly S3 to trade at the 1.2537 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the currency exchange rate will break the resistance of the 55-hour SMA to use the technical indicator as a support level to break through the monthly S2 at 1.2565 to trade near the 1.2555 level.

On the other side, the rate could be resisted by the 55-hour simple moving average to push the British pound to pass through the support level of the monthly S2 at 1.2435 to trade at the 1.2400 level during the trading session on Wednesday.


Source: https://money.net & https://www.actionforex.com/contributor ... -sideways/
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GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Hampered by resistance, aiming below 1.2600

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Hampered by resistance, aiming below 1.2600

Intraday action on GBP/USD remains underpinned by soft support from the 1.2600-12615 zone, and swings higher continue to fail to develop meaningful momentum as the Sterling continues to be cowed by Brexit headlines.

GBP/USD, 5-Minute
The past two weeks have seen the Cable break near-term consolidation to mark in a new 20-month low at 1.2477, and the bullish recovery saw stiff new resistance priced in at the previous support level of 1.2670.
GBP/USD, 30-Minute
The past two months sees the GBP/USD pairing stuck in a bearish cycle, accelerating out of the regular selling zone, and the bullish bounceback has seen the Cable return to a nominally bearish cycle as bidders get pushed back into the overarching bear-trend.
GBP/USD, 4-Hour
Overview:
Today Last Price: 1.2628
Today Daily change: -37 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.292%
Today Daily Open: 1.2665

Trends:
Previous Daily SMA20: 1.2746
Previous Daily SMA50: 1.29
Previous Daily SMA100: 1.2937
Previous Daily SMA200: 1.3263

Levels:

Previous Daily High: 1.2688
Previous Daily Low: 1.2593
Previous Weekly High: 1.284
Previous Weekly Low: 1.2659
Previous Monthly High: 1.3176
Previous Monthly Low: 1.2723
Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2629
Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2651
Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2609
Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2554
Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2515
Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.2704
Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.2743
Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.2798

Sources: https://Money.net & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-t ... 1812140637
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GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Headed back towards challenging 200-hour SMA

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Headed back towards challenging 200-hour SMA stiff resistance

  • The pair finally broke out of its Asian session consolidation phase and was now seen building on the momentum further beyond the 1.2600 handle.
  • Technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart have been gaining traction and remained supportive of the ongoing up-move amid a modest USD retracement.
  • However, oscillators on 4-hourly/daily charts are yet to move out of the bearish territory and hence, any subsequent might remain capped near the 200-hour SMA.

GBP/USD 1-hourly chart
Overview:
Today Last Price: 1.2627
Today Daily change: 46 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.366%
Today Daily Open: 1.2581

Trends:
Previous Daily SMA20: 1.2734
Previous Daily SMA50: 1.2889
Previous Daily SMA100: 1.2931
Previous Daily SMA200: 1.3256

Levels:
Previous Daily High: 1.2676
Previous Daily Low: 1.2529
Previous Weekly High: 1.276
Previous Weekly Low: 1.2477
Previous Monthly High: 1.3176
Previous Monthly Low: 1.2723
Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2585
Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.262
Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2515
Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2449
Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2369
Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.2662
Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.2742
Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.2808

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-t ... 1812171146
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UK final Q3 2018 GDP comes with no surprises

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UK Q3 2018 GDP final 0.6% vs 0.6% exp q/q: Prior 0.6% 1.5% vs 1.5% exp/prior y/y $GBP

  • Q3 2018 UK GDP final revision 21 December 2018
  • GDP final 0.6% vs 0.6% exp q/q. Prior 0.6%. Q2 0.4%
    1.5% vs 1.5% exp y/y. Prior 1.5%
  • Business investment -1.1% vs -1.2% prior q/q
    -1.8% vs -1.9% prior y/y
  • Exports 1.1% vs 2.7% prior q/q
    -1.3% vs 0.7% prior y/y
  • Imports 0.8% vs 0.0% prior q/q
    0.2% vs -0.5% prior y/y
  • Employee compensation 1.4% vs 1.3% prior q/q
    4.2% vs 3.9% prior y/y
  • Disposable income 0.0% q/q
    1.4% y/y
  • Household spending 0.5% unch q/q
    1.8% unch y/y
  • Gross fixed cap formation 0.5% vs 0.6% prior q/q
    -0.3% vs 0.0% prior y/y

Nothing much to write home about. The wires are screaming that biz investment is the worst since Q1 2016 but it was better than the prelim so how bad did that make it. GBPUSD doing nothing at 1.2660.

Household spending was unchanged but that’s no good if disposable income isn’t there. The only other plus side was wages being revised up. That suggests that everything that’s coming in, is going out on bills. That could show a softer consumer down the line.
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GBPUSD Technical Analysis:Fails near 100-hour SMA

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Once again fails near 100-hour SMA

  • For the second consecutive session, the pair struggled to build on its intraday positive momentum and started retreating from 100-hour SMA hurdle near the 1.2670-75 region.
  • Technical indicators on hourly/daily charts have been recovering from the bearish territory but are still far from supporting prospects for any further near-term positive move.


GBP/USD 1-hourly chart
Looking at the daily chart, the pair has been oscillating within a broader trading range over the past 1-1/2 week, suggesting indecision over the near-term trajectory.
Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a decisive break through the mentioned trading band before traders start positioning for the pair's next leg of a directional move.

Daily chart

Overview:
Today Last Price: 1.2654
Today Daily change: 0.0 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.00%
Today Daily Open: 1.2654

Trends:
Previous Daily SMA20: 1.2663
Previous Daily SMA50: 1.28
Previous Daily SMA100: 1.29
Previous Daily SMA200: 1.3199

Levels:
Previous Daily High: 1.2676
Previous Daily Low: 1.2616
Previous Weekly High: 1.2708
Previous Weekly Low: 1.2574
Previous Monthly High: 1.3176
Previous Monthly Low: 1.2723
Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2653
Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2639
Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2622
Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2589
Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2562
Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.2681
Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.2708
Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.274

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-t ... 1812280859
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GBPUSD trimming the hatches with Brexit vote around the corner

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GBP/USD trimming the hatches with Brexit vote around the corner

  • Sterling traders pushed into the middle ahead of UK parliament's Brexit vote.
  • After Brexit deal vote, plenty of high-impact data remains on the week.

GBP/USD is trading softly lower into 1.2840 as investors turn their eyes to tomorrow's critical parliamentary vote on PM May's Brexit withdrawal proposal, which is expected to face resounding defeat.

Monday brings little action on the economic calendar, but Tuesday's parliamentary vote will see traders keeping a close eye on headlines today as they try to find a safe place to stand ahead of the almost-guaranteed washout of Prime Minister Theresa May's current withdrawal deal, which is seen losing by a devastating margin in the House of Commons, after which PM May's government will have just three days to deliver an alternative plan, and Cable traders are buckling down ahead of the key vote.

The early week sees little of note on the economic calendar for both the Sterling and the Greenback, but after tomorrow's parliamentary vote plenty of action is still to come this week, with inflation figures for both currencies due, as well as headline Retail Sailes in the mid-week.

GBP/USD Levels to watch
Despite Brexit issues coming in a for a landing, Cable technicals are leaning higher, according to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik: "from a technical point of view, the daily chart offers a bullish stance, as the pair has held throughout the week above a bullish 20 DMA, now gaining upward traction around 1.2680, as technical indicators maintain their upward slopes in positive levels, although with limited strength. In the 4 hours chart, the upside is also favored, as despite losing upward momentum, technical indicators hold near their daily highs, while the pair develops above its 20 SMA and the 200 EMA. If the pair loses the 1.2800 level, however, the risk will turn to the downside, at least short-term."

Support levels: 1.2805 1.2760 1.2720
Resistance levels: 1.2865 1.2900 1.2945

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-t ... 1901140500
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GBPUSD set for a challenge of 1.3000

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GBP/USD set for a challenge of 1.3000, lagging UK retail sales clouding the picture

  • Despite a bullish push to end the week, Cable markets remain tense as Brexit uncertainty settles in for the long haul.
  • PM May may have won her no-confidence vote, but her hands remain tied, with only days to produce an alternative Brexit deal.

GBP/USD is trading just south of the major 1.3000 handle as Pound sentiment improves heading into the week's end, with the Cable floating near 1.2980 and sticking near Thursday's closing prices.

Retail Sales data is slated for Friday morning, dropping at 09:30 GMT with December's annualized Retail Sales forecast to hold steady at 3.6%, but the decidedly mid-tier data is unlikely to drive much attention as markets remain focused on Brexit developments.

Prime Minister Theresa May, having survived a no-confidence vote, still faces an unwinnable uphill task, with a deadline of Monday to produce an alternative Brexit withdrawal agreement, or PM May may have no choice but to face a Brexit delay despite her government's vehement opposition to such a move. But in the interest of averting an economic disaster in the shape of a hard Brexit, May's government may face no choice but to face down an extension of Article 50, and the Brexit wheel is set to resume turning over slowly after two years of little to no progress, and the grim reality facing the Cable could see the GBP restrained in the long-term, but in the meantime, Pound traders are enjoying a much-needed bounceback at the tail-end of a tough week.

GBP/USD Levels to watch
Despite Brexit uncertainty set to continue into the future, Sterling traders are beginning to finally push out for more gains, and GBP/USD is set for a bullish continuation according to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik:

The pair is technically bullish, approaching the key 1.3000 mark. The 4 hours chart shows that a bullish 20 SMA keeps providing intraday dynamic support, currently at around 1.2870, while the indicator keeps advancing above the 200 EMA, this last modestly bullish over 200 pips below the current level. The RSI indicator in the mentioned chart near oversold levels, while the Momentum maintains a bullish slope well above its midline, indicating the advance may continue during the upcoming sessions.

Support levels: 1.2930 1.2885 1.2840
Resistance levels: 1.3000 1.3035 1.3080

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-s ... 1901180504
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