GBP/USD challenges 1.3000 post-UK data

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GBP/USD challenges 1.3000 post-UK data

- Cable stays weak near 1.30 post-UK data on Friday.
- UK’s advanced Q3 GDP matched previous estimates at 0.6% QoQ.
- Brexit negotiation remains the key driver for Sterling.

The selling bias around the British Pound remains well and sound during the second half of the week, although some decent contention turned up in the sub-1.30 area for GBP/USD, session lows.

GBP/USD looks to Brexit headlines for direction

Cable is down for the second consecutive session so far at the end of the week, coming under further downside pressure mainly in response to the lack of progress in the UK-EU Brexit negotiations.

Today’s UK data have lent some support to the Sterling after preliminary Q3 GDP figures now see the economy expanding 0.6% QoQ and 1.5% on a yearly basis, matching forecasts.

Further UK data saw Industrial Production coming in flat inter-month in September and Manufacturing Production expanding 0.2%. In addition, the trade deficit shrunk to 9.73 billion in September, bettering estimates.

GBP/USD levels to consider

As of writing, the pair is losing 0.44% at 1.3005 and a breakdown of 1.2989 (21-day SMA) would open the door to 1.2959 (10-day SMA) and finally 1.2921 (low Oct.4). On the upside, the next hurdle is located at 1.3176 (high Nov.7) seconded by 1.3259 (high Oct.12) and then 1.3299 (high Sep.20).

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-c ... 1811090953
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Four UK ministers on verge of quitting, EU rejects latest plan

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Four UK ministers on verge of quitting, EU rejects latest plan: Sunday Times


LONDON (Reuters) - Four British ministers who back remaining in the European Union are on the verge of quitting Theresa May’s government over Brexit, the Sunday Times reported, as pressures built on the prime minister from all sides.

The newspaper also said that the European Union had rejected May’s plan for an independent mechanism to oversee Britain’s departure from any temporary customs arrangement it agrees. The newspaper sourced the development to British sources, and not sources in the EU team.

May is trying to hammer out the final details of the British divorce deal but the talks have become stuck over how the two sides can prevent a hard border from being required in Ireland.

Britain has proposed a UK-wide temporary customs arrangement with the EU to resolve the issue but Brexiteers in her party want London to have the final say on when that arrangement would end, to prevent it from being tied indefinitely to the bloc.

A senior cabinet minister was quoted in the paper as saying: “This is the moment she has to face down Brussels and make it clear to them that they need to compromise, or we will leave without a deal.”

An EU diplomat told Reuters earlier on Saturday that they were cautiously hopeful that an EU summit could happen in November to endorse the deal but that the volatile situation in Britain made it very difficult to predict.

Other EU diplomats said several issues remained unresolved.

May is expected to meet with her cabinet this week to set out her plans for the divorce deal. She was dealt a blow on Friday when junior minister Jo Johnston, who voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum, quit over her plan.

To add to the pressure, a leading member of a group of Brexiteer lawmakers in parliament joined with the Brexit spokesman for the small Northern Irish party that props up May’s party in government to warn that they could not vote for the deal as it currently stands.

Steve Baker, a former junior Brexit minister who resigned over May’s so-called Chequers proposals on Brexit, and Sammy Wilson of the DUP wrote in the Sunday Telegraph newspaper that they could not back a deal if it treated Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the country.

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May had been expected to hold a vote in parliament on her deal before the end of the year.

A spokeswoman for May’s Downing Street office said the talks were going down to the wire. “The prime minister has always said these negotiations are tough and toughest in the final stages.

“The prime minister has told colleagues this week we should aim to conclude the withdrawal agreement as soon as possible but we will not do that at any cost.”

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKCN1NF0RS
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GBP/USD clings to gains near 1.2900 handle

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GBP/USD clings to gains near 1.2900 handle, moves little after UK jobs data

• A subdued USD price action helps stage a modest rebound after the overnight slump.
• Mixed UK labour market report does little to provide any meaningful impetus.
• Brexit uncertainties might continue to keep a lid on any strong recovery move.


The GBP/USD pair held on to its goodish recovery gains near the 1.2900 handle and had a rather muted reaction to the mixed UK labour market report.

The pair stalled last week's sharp retracement slide from the 1.3175 region and caught some bids on Tuesday, snapping three consecutive days of losing streak. With investors still digesting the latest negative Brexit headlines, a subdued US Dollar price action was seen as one of the key factors behind the pair's initial rebound.

The pair, however, failed to capitalize on the positive momentum and moved little after the latest UK employment details showed that average earnings data (excluding bonus) recorded a growth of 3.2% during the past three months to September.

The reading was better than 3.1% growth expected and an upwardly revised 2.8% previous, albeit was largely negated by an unexpected rise in the UK unemployment rate, coming in at 4.1% 3m/y in September as compared to 4.0% previous and expected.

Adding to the disappointment, the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits jumped by 20.2K in October as against 4.3K rise anticipated and an upwardly revised reading of 23.2K in the previous month.

It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to build on the positive momentum or runs into some fresh supply at higher levels amid persistent Brexit uncertainties, given that the likelihood of an EU Brexit summit might have been pushed to December 13-14.

Technical levels to watch
Any subsequent up-move is likely to confront fresh supply near the 1.2945-50 region, above which a bout of short-covering could lift the pair further towards reclaiming the key 1.30 psychological mark. On the flip side, the 1.2845 level now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken is likely to accelerate the fall further towards challenging the 1.2800 round figure mark.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-c ... 1811130945
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Further GBP Price Drop Likely as Brexit Deal Faces Strong Opposition

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Further GBP Price Drop Likely as Brexit Deal Faces Strong Opposition

GBP PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
  • The proposed Brexit agreement between UK PM Theresa May and the EU is facing strong political opposition all round in the UK.
  • That means the likely next move in the GBPUSD price is lower still as she struggles to win approval for it.

GBP PRICE AT RISK
GBPUSD is dropping further below 1.30 in Europe Thursday after a highly volatile session Wednesday as traders weighed up the impact of the proposed Brexit deal between UK Prime Minister Theresa May and the EU. Moreover, it could well come under more downward pressure in the days ahead as opposition to the agreement dents confidence in the Pound.

May is due to make a statement on the agreement in Parliament Thursday ahead of a likely EU Summit later this month, perhaps on November 25, but she faces a series of hurdles and a stumble at any one of them could lead to more GBP weakness.

GBPUSD PRICE CHART, DAILY TIMEFRAME (JULY 1 – NOVEMBER 15, 2018)
In particular, the deal has to be ratified by the UK Parliament and that looks currently to be very difficult to achieve amid hostility from the opposition Labour Party and from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party that holds the balance of power in Parliament.

May also faces dissent from both the hardline supporters of Brexit and those wishing to remain in the EU within her own ruling Conservative Party. Despite winning the approval of her cabinet for the potential agreement, the Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and a junior minister in the government resigned early Thursday and more resignations are possible.

May could also face a no-confidence vote in Parliament as Brexit hardliners gather signatures for a challenge to her authority that could ultimately lead to her downfall.

GBPUSD PRICE CHART, FIVE-MINUTE TIMEFRAME (NOVEMBER 14-15, 2018)
For now, a possible first target is Wednesday’s 1.2881 low and a drop below support there would likely lead to more losses near-term.


Source: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_al ... ition.html
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GBP/USD hanging just below 1.2900

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GBP/USD hanging just below 1.2900 after premature Brexit hope

  • Thin Friday markets await further details on the newest round of Brexit agreements being promised by UK PM May.
  • Monday's upcoming Brexit summit and EU vote on the deal will be capturing significant attention in the run-up.

The GBP/USD is bumping into the 1.2880 region after Thursday's mid-day announcement of a flurry of Brexit deals saw the Cable surging over 1.2% into a new weekly high of 1.2927 before bedding back down just shy of the 1.2900 major technical level.

Friday's economic calendar remains free and clear of UK data on the offering, but Brexit headlines would have rendered any data largely irrelevant anyway, after UK sentiment pinned firmly into the optimistic end of the spectrum yesterday following several leaks surrounding the EU-UK's latest 'agreement to have an agreement', wrapped up in a new Brexit agreement that remains to be agreed to. Spain remains a tricky thorn in the side of both parties, threatening to overturn the newest agreement when it gets voted on at the EU-UK Brexit summit on Monday unless sufficient 'clarity' on Gibraltar's borders are included in the text of the agreement. Following that, the new raft of Brexit agreements, which waits to be completed this weekend, will need to survive a vote within the UK's own parliament, which is summarily stacked with Eurosceptic Brexiteers who continue to threaten to veto any agreement tabled by Prime Minister Theresa May, leaving significant headwinds on the path to a clean Brexit.

GBP/USD Levels to watch
Despite obvious pitfalls looming ahead, Brexit optimism has left the Pound in an elevated chart position, but even that sees itself teetering on the brink, as noted by FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik: "according to technical readings in the 4 hours chart, as the rally stalled well below a mild bearish 200 EMA, although above a directionless 20 SMA, while technical indicators entered positive ground before losing directional strength. Given the Brexit situation, the upward potential for the Pound is quite limited, with spikes being taking as selling opportunities by speculative interest."

Support levels: 1.2840 1.2800 1.2765

Resistance levels: 1.2890 1.2930 1.2965
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GBP/USD fades a spike beyond 1.2800 handle, back near daily lows

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GBP/USD fades a spike beyond 1.2800 handle, back near daily lows

  • The latest leg of a sudden pickup lacked any catalyst and quickly ran out of steam.
  • Persistent Brexit uncertainties continue to dent sentiment surrounding the GBP.
  • A modest USD uptick further collaborated towards capping any meaningful up-move.

The GBP/USD pair faded a knee-jerk spike to levels beyond the 1.2800 handle and quickly retreated to the lower end of its daily trading range.

After consolidating in a range through the Asian/early European session, the pair picked up the pace in the last hour and jumped an intraday high level of 1.2810.

The up-move lacked any obvious catalyst but coincided with the news that the UK trade secretary Liam Fox has urged MPs to vote for Theresa May’s controversial EU withdrawal plan.

However, investors seemed convinced that the UK PM Theresa May will fail to get the Brexit deal past parliament, which eventually kept a lid on any runaway rally for the British Pound.

The pair has now retreated back to the 1.2780 region, the lower end of its daily trading range, and was further weighed down by a modest US Dollar uptick, which remained supported by Thursday's FOMC meeting minutes.

The latest FOMC meeting minutes reaffirmed prospects for another rate hike in December and largely offset Wednesday's dovish sounding comments by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell and eventually extended some support to the greenback.

In absence of any major market moving economic releases from the UK, the incoming Brexit-related headlines might continue to drive sentiment surrounding the British Pound and infuse some volatility around the major.

Later during the early North-American session, a scheduled speech by New York Fed President John Williams and the release of Chicago PMI might also help traders grab some short-term opportunities on the last trading day of the week.

Technical levels to watch
Immediate support is pegged near the 1.2760 zone and is followed by the 1.2725 level, below which the pair is likely to break through the 1.2700 handle retest yearly lows, around the 1.2665-60 region. On the flip side, any attempted move back above the 1.2800 handle now seems to confront resistance near the 1.2825 region, which is closely followed overnight swing highs, around mid-1.2800s.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-f ... 1811300950
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