GBPUSD fall continues. Trades at lowest level since October 4th

Moves away from 100 day MA

The latest headline from a Sky source says an unnamed Tory centrist has sent PM May a vote of no-confidence letter.


Looking at the hourly chart of the GBPUSD, the price of the pair stalled right near the 100 day MA at 1.3085 area. That hold and subsequent headlines outlining the discontent within the ranks, sent the price tumbling lower. The low has now reached 1.2972. That is the lowest low since October 4. The low for the month of October comes in at 1.29206. That is the next key target for the pair.

On the move lower, the price has cracked below the 1.3023-30 area. That was a swing area going back to October 3rd, and the 1.3000 level. Those are risk levels for shorts.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/gbpusd ... h-20181022

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Risks are skewed to the downside


- As seen in the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair closed at1.2960 on Monday, confirming a downside break of the trendline connecting the Aug. 15 low and Oct. 4 low.
- The pair failed to hold on to gains above the trendline resistance (former support) yesterday, reinforcing the bearish view put forward by the downside break of the diagonal line on Monday.
- At 44, the relative strength index (RSI) is biased toward the bears. The MACD is signaling that the bearish momentum is gathering pace.
- The momentum studies - 5-day, 10-day, and 21-day EMAs - are trending north indicating a bearish setup.
- As a result, the odds are stacked in favor of a drop to 1.2905 (61.8% Fib R of 1.2662/1.3299).
- The bearish view would be invalidated only above the 10-day EMA.


Daily chart
Spot Rate: 1.2980

Daily High: 1.2991

Daily Low: 1.2973

Trend: Bearish

Resistance

R1: 1.3024 (trendline resistance)

R2: 1.3046 (10-day EMA)

R3: 1.3063 (50-day EMA)

Support

S1: 1.2937 (previous day's low)

S2: 1.2905 (61.8% Fib R of 1.2662/1.3299)

S3: 1.2812 (76.4% Fib R of 1.2662/1.3299)

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-t ... 1810240531

GBP/USD holding above 1.2800 ahead of UK budget speech, US consumer spending data

- The Sterling's Brexit woes are far from over ahead of Monday's Exchequers budget speech.
- Key US data due in the day to also tug on markets' risk strings as investors fear a steepening global slowdown.


The GBP/USD is trading softly up in early Monday trading, testing the waters near 1.2830 ahead of a tense day that sees the latest annual budget speech from the UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Monday is slated to see the latest Annual Budget from the Exchequer Chancellor Phillip Hammond, and the chancellor is expected to unveil key details from the UK's budgetary outlook, somewhere around 15:30 GMT, and traders are tensing ahead of the report in case Hammond plays too many safe cards and focuses too much on the possibility of further extending the UK's austerity measures, as well as planned funding solutions in the face of a potential no-deal Brexit.

Elsewhere on the docket will be UK Mortgage Approvals at 09:30 GMT, expected to decline from the previous reading of 66.44 thousand to 64.75 thousand, but the headier reading for the day will be the US Consumption Expenditure reading at 12:30 GMT, which is expected to clock in at 2%, in-line with the previous figure, for the year into September.

GBP/USD levels to watch

Downside pressure can be expected to mount for the Cable as the pair continues to see declines broad-base against a framework of continued Brexit-bearish headlines, and as noted by FXStreet's own Mario Blascak, PhD: "Technically, the GBP/USD is moving in a downward sloping trend framed by last week’s high of 1.3238 and Monday’s high of 1.3091. After falling sharply on Monday towards 1.2940, the GBP/USD recovered on Brexit optimism on Tuesday just to fall back to October lows on Wednesday and fell further down on Thursday and Friday. The technical oscillators including Momentum and the Relative Strength Index both turned higher in the neutral territory on a daily chart. The Slow Stochastics made a move deeply into the bullish territory with swing upwards being the most probable move. After the GBP/USD fell past price target of 1.2920 and fell below 1.2800 to reach a 7week low, the pressure on falling further towards 2018 low of 1.2662 will mount."

Bullish GBP...

Source:

GBP/USD bounces off 2-month lows, still deep in the red near mid-1.2700s

- Brexit uncertainties continue to dent sentiment surrounding the British Pound.
- Resurgent USD demand further collaborates towards aggravating the selling pressure.
- Traders now seemed to lighten their bearish bets ahead of BoE’s Super Thursday.

The GBP/USD pair remained heavily offered through the early North-American session, albeit quickly recovered around 30-pips from over two-month lows touched in the past hour.

Against the backdrop of persistent Brexit uncertainties, the pair kept losing ground for the fourth trading session in the previous five and was being weighed down by a goodish pickup in the USD demand. In fact, the key US Dollar Index rallied to 2-1/2 month tops and was seen as one of the key factors behind the pair's sharp retracement from an intraday high level of 1.2813.

The downfall accelerated further after the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond said that a no-deal Brexit would be a shock to the economy and would require fiscal stimulus. The pair tumbled to the 1.2730 region, the lowest since August 20, albeit seems to found some support at lower levels.

The rebound lacked any fundamental catalyst in terms of any economic data or Brexit related news/developments and could be solely attributed to some short-covering, especially after the recent slump and ahead of this week's key event risk - BoE's Super Thursday.

The pair is now trying to stabilize just above mid-1.2700s as market participants now look forward to the release of Conference Board's consumer confidence index, the key highlight from today's relatively thin US economic docket, in order to grab some short-term trading opportunities.

Technical levels to watch

A follow-through selling has the potential to continue dragging the pair further towards the 1.2700 handle en-route YTD lows support around the 1.2665-60 region. On the flip side, the 1.2775 level, followed by the 1.2800 handle might now act as immediate resistance levels, above which a bout of short-covering could lift the pair further towards the 1.2840-50 supply zone.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-b ... 1810301321

Cable Spikes After UK's Raab Promises Brexit Deal By Nov 21st

Source:

GBP/USD falls back below 1.30 on conflicting Brexit reports

- The British Pound is feeling the pull of gravity on Telegraph report.
- The GBP/USD is back below 1.30, having hit a high of 1.3023 earlier today.


The British Pound is witnessing a solid two-way business in Asia.

The currency pair found bids in early Asian in response to a Sunday Times report stating that Prime Minister May has planned an all-UK customs deal with the EU, which would resolve the Irish border issue.

The optimism, however, was short-lived as May's office dismissed that report as speculation. Further, the Telegraph reported that British Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab on Tuesday privately demanded the right to pull Britain out of a "backstop" arrangement for the Irish border after three months. That pitch may not be acceptable to the European Union.

These conflicting reports are complicating matters for the GBP traders. At press time, the currency pair is trading at 1.2990, having clocked a high and low of 1.3023 and 1.2986, respectively.

The psychological level of 1.30 has been put to test since Thursday, but a convincing close above that level has so far remained elusive.

GBP/USD Technical Levels

GBP/USD

Overview:
Last Price: 1.2992
Daily change: 24 pips
Daily change: 0.185%
Daily Open: 1.2968
Trends:
Daily SMA20: 1.3003
Daily SMA50: 1.3021
Daily SMA100: 1.3042
Daily SMA200: 1.343
Levels:
Daily High: 1.3042
Daily Low: 1.2952
Weekly High: 1.3042
Weekly Low: 1.2696
Monthly High: 1.326
Monthly Low: 1.2696
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2986
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3008
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2932
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2896
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2841
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3023
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3078
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3114

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bolstered at 1.3130 on Brexit hopes

The GBP/USD's intraday action over the last twenty-four hours has seen the pair clip into a new near-term high near 1.3175, but the pair has faded back heading into Thursday's main trading sessions, digging in just north of the 1.3100 handle.
GBP/USD analysis: Brexit optimism overshadows it all


GBP/USD M5
Over the past week, the Cable has lifted firmly on rising hopes for a successful Brexit negotiation, with yet another key self-imposed deadline of this Friday expected to reveal any kind of last-minute deal in proceedings, and the GBP has been bolstered by hopes for a last-minute deal, and the Cable has been rising in a healthy uptrend, lifting from the 200-period moving average.

GBP/USD M15
The Cable has pushed into a bullish reversal, crossing the 200-hour moving average and keeping bid above the 50-hour moving average near the 1.3100 handle.


GBP/USD H1

Overview:
Last Price: 1.3134
Daily change: -3.0 pips
Daily change: -0.0228%
Daily Open: 1.3137
Trends:
Daily SMA20: 1.2996
Daily SMA50: 1.3031
Daily SMA100: 1.3039
Daily SMA200: 1.3414
Levels:
Daily High: 1.3176
Daily Low: 1.3074
Weekly High: 1.3042
Weekly Low: 1.2696
Monthly High: 1.326
Monthly Low: 1.2696
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3137
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3112
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3082
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3027
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.298
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3184
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3231
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3286

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-t ... 1811080651

Preview of UK GDP data due Friday 9 November 2018

Economic growth data for the UK Q3 of 2018

Previews via:
Nomura:
Based on our forecasts for flat industrial production, a small 0.1% rise in service sector output and a modest rebound in construction output, GDP would rise by 0.1% in September. That would in turn imply a 0.6% q-o-q growth rate for Q3. While it would take a material downside surprise to the monthly rate to yield something weaker than 0.6% q-o-q, only a small upside surprise could easily push growth up to 0.7% during the quarter relative to our 0.6% view.

Also, Nomura on IP:
The manufacturing PMI and CBI surveys held up reasonably well in September before falling in October; however, car production (worth just 6½% of total industrial production and about 9% of manufacturing) was weak during September according to the SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) figures. We forecast a flat manufacturing reading, but the risk is that weak auto production ends up dominating the figures.

GDP preview via RBC:
The UK economy looks set to avoid the 'weaker momentum' that afflicted the euro area in Q3 … and instead we expect growth to accelerate from Q2's 0.4% q/q to 0.6% q/q. Even though growth was flat m/m in August, the July expansion of 0.4% m/m meant that the quarter got off to a very strong start as the good summer weather boosted consumer spending and construction activity. This first release of quarterly GDP now comes with an expenditure breakdown which we expect to show household consumption and investment being the major contributors to third quarter growth.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/previe ... 8-20181109