AUD Price at Risk to Political Uncertainty

2
AUD Price at Risk to Political Uncertainty, Fed Bets, BoC Rate Hike

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BEARISH

- Australian Dollar declined despite jobs report as FOMC minutes overshadowed key risk
- Australia’s Prime Minister faces by-election, hung parliament may see AUD gap Monday
- US GDP beat, Fed policy bets and BoC rate hike leaves the Australian Dollar vulnerable

Read more: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundament ... -Hike.html
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎

AUD in Consolidation

3
AUD/USD in Consolidation. GBP/AUD Risks Reversal, AUD/NZD More so

TALKING POINTS – AUD/USD, GBP/AUD, AUD/NZD, HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN


- Critical resistance prevented major AUD/USD upside reversal last week, key support held
- GBP/AUD is closer to a reversal of the dominant uptrend from August, proceed with caution
- AUD/NZD ends consolidation with a bearish reversal pattern, six-month uptrend is at risk


AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Neutral
The Australian Dollar spent most of its time trading sideways against its US counterpart last week. AUD/USD was initially on the verge of an upside reversal, but as anticipated key resistance held around the December/May 2016 lows. Meanwhile immediate support areas are preventing downside progress.

The first one is the September 11th low at 0.70830 which is also closely aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Descending through that then leaves the October 8th low exposed at 0.70390. Until meaningful progress is made in either direction, the technical outlook for AUD/USD will have to be neutral.


GBP/AUD Technical Outlook: Slightly Bearish
Unlike AUD/USD, GBP/AUD descended through a couple of critical support barriers last week. First, the range of former resistance from March/April between 1.84 and 1.85. Then the 2015/2016/2018 horizontal line at 1.83436. However, towards the last few moments of Friday, the British Pound found itself pushing higher against the Australian Dollar, leaving it right on the former area,

One barrier does need to be cleared until we can argue that GBP/AUD is about to reverse the upside progress it has made since August. This is a rising range of support from then, and descending through it would be a strong bearish signal. Given that there may be a chance of such an occurrence this week, the GBP/AUD technical outlook will change to a slightly bearish bias.


AUD/NZD Technical Outlook: Bearish

For some time now, AUD/NZD prices have been largely trading sideways. This was finally broken last week after a descent through 1.08430 as the pair closed at its lowest since June 28th. Looking at the weekly AUD/NZD chart, we can actually see a head & shoulders bearish reversal pattern. Last week’s close marked the break of the neckline.

With that in mind, AUD/NZD may be on the verge of overturning the upside progress it has made for the past six months or so. In the long run, and by measuring the distance between the head and neckline of the candlestick pattern, the pair may face the April 2015 rising trend line. But getting there first requires descending through 1.07777 followed by 1.06699 which may hold as support areas.

Taking this into consideration, the AUD/NZD technical outlook will have to be bearish, especially if we get confirmation of the bearish pattern via more closes lower next week.

Source: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical ... re-so.html
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎

AUD/USD remains bid despite risk-off in Asian equities

4
AUD/USD remains bid despite risk-off in Asian equities

- The AUD is surprisingly reporting gains amid risk aversion.
- The greenback is on the defensive as turmoil may force the Fed to soften is hawkish tone.

Currently, the AUD/USD is reporting a 0.30 percent gain at the session high of 0.7080 despite the heightened risk aversion in the equities.

Stepping back, the Australian dollar and other risk currencies took a beating yesterday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average tanked more than 600 basis points. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also reported sharp losses.

The increased haven demand for the treasuries likely lifted the greenback higher.

However, the Asian desks are viewing things differently - the US dollar is being offered possibly on fears that sustained risk aversion may force the Fed to soften its hawkish stance and delay the December rate hike.

Looking ahead, the corrective rally in the AUD/USD may gather pace if the European and US desks also see market instability taming Fed's aggression.

AUD/USD Technical Levels
Resistance: 0.7106 (previous day's low), 0.7160 (Oct. 17 high), 0.7186 (50-day EMA + falling trendline)

Support: 0.7055 (session low), 0.7041 (Oct. 8 low), 0.70 (psychological support)

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-r ... 1810250336
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎

AUD/USD: recovery rally stalled at 200-hour MA hurdle

5
AUD/USD: recovery rally stalled at 200-hour MA hurdle


- AUD/USD's recovery from the 32-month low of 0.7021 seems to have stalled at the 20-hour moving averaged lined up near 0.71.
- The upside in the AUD is likely being capped by the weakness in the Chinese yuan.

Trend: Bearish

The 200-hour moving average (MA) of 0.7096 is the level to beat for the bulls. This is because the key moving average has proved a tough nut to crack since Friday's NY session.

At press time, the currency pair is trading at 0.7085. A break above the 200-hour MA would signal a continuation of the rally from the 32-month low of 0.7021 hit on Friday and could yield a rally to 0.7160 (Oct. 17 high).

However, a break above the 200-hour MA may remain elusive as the Chinese yuan is on the defensive. For instance, USD/CNH (off shore yuan) has bounced off the 5-day EMA and is currently reporting moderate gains at 0.6598. Further, the S&P 500 futures are down 0.17 percent.

Looking ahead, the AUD/USD could rise well above the 200-hour MA, if the global equities turn positive. A below-forecast US personal spending and core PCE figures could also put a bid under the AUD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Levels


Resistance: 0.7096 (200-hour MA), 0.7160 (Oct. 17 high), 0.72 (psychological level)

Support: 0.7055 (Oct. 25 low), 0.7021 (Friday's low), 0.70 (psychological support)

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-r ... 1810290233
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎


AUD/USD remains under pressure

6
AUD/USD remains under pressure while below 0.7183/0.7260 - Commerzbank

While below the 0.7183/0.7260 area, the Aussie Dollar is expected to remain under pressure, noted Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

Key Quotes

“AUD/USD continues to recover near term and we would allow for a rally to the 55 day moving average at .7183 and the .7260 2018 channel and while capped here this will leave the market under overall pressure”.

“We are looking for reversal for a number of reasons - we have TD support at .6995, the large divergence of the daily RSI and the 13 count on the weekly chart”.

“A close above the channel would be required to negate downside pressure and trigger a move to the .7474 9 th July high on the way to the 200 day ma at .7505”.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-r ... 1810310832
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎

AUD/USD attempting gains above 100-day EMA

8
AUD/USD is attempting gains above 100-day EMA after China trade data release

- AUD/USD is mildy bid above the 100-day EMA, having added 10 pips after China trade data release.
- The AUD's 4 percent recovery rally may fall apart if trade tensions between the US and China escalate.

The AUD/USD jumped 10 pips
to a session high of 0.7280 after China data showed the trade surplus widened to CNY 233.63 billion in October from the previous month's print of CNY 213.23 billion.

The CNY-denominated exports rose 20.1 percent year-on-year, bettering the estimate of 12 percent. Meanwhile, imports surged 26.3 percent, beating the estimate of 14 percent.

In US dollar terms, the trade surplus widened to $34.01 billion from $31.70 billion, but narrowly missed the forecasted figure of $35.00 billion.

The sharp rise in exports may have put a bid under the Aussie dollar. However, a convincing break above 0.73 may remain elusive if the details reveal a drop in the imports of iron ore and copper and a surge in China's surplus with the US.

AUD/USD Technical Levels

Overview:
Last Price: 0.7277
Daily change: -1.0 pips
Daily change: -0.0137%
Daily Open: 0.7278

Trends:
Daily SMA20: 0.7129
Daily SMA50: 0.716
Daily SMA100: 0.7267
Daily SMA200: 0.7478

Levels:
Daily High: 0.7302
Daily Low: 0.7213
Weekly High: 0.726
Weekly Low: 0.705
Monthly High: 0.724
Monthly Low: 0.702
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7268
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7247
Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7227
Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7175
Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7138
Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7316
Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7354
Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7405

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-i ... 1811080321
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎

AUD/USD Technical Analysis – Weekly Wall of Resistance

9
AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Weekly Wall of Resistance Layered at .7252, .7307 and .7349

Based on last week’s close at .7228, the direction of the AUD/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the intermediate 50% level at .7252.


A positive outlook for the economy from the Reserve Bank of Australia helped underpin the Australian Dollar last week, but gains were limited by another hawkish monetary policy statement by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Aussie was also helped by stronger than expected trade data out of China, its largest trading partner.

Last week, the AUD/USD settled at .7228, up 0.0030 or +0.41%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the official interest rate unchanged for the 27th consecutive month at its monetary policy meeting and gave no indication it would lift rates from a record-low 1.50 percent any time soon. “The Australian economy is performing well,” Dr. Lowe said.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve also left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, while reaffirming the likelihood of another rate hike in December.


Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The two week rally has put the AUD/USD in a position to challenge the last main top at .7314. A trade through this level will change the main trend to up. A move through .7020 will signal the resumption of the downtrend.

The new short-term range is .7020 to .7302. Its retracement zone at .7161 to .7128 is the primary downside target.

The intermediate range is .7484 to .7020. Its retracement zone at .7252 to .7307 is the first upside target. This zone was tested last week when the Forex pair rallied to .7302.

The main range is .7677 to .7020. Its retracement zone at .7349 to .7426 is the next upside target.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Based on last week’s close at .7228, the direction of the AUD/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the intermediate 50% level at .7252.

A sustained move under .7252 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into the short-term retracement zone at .7161 to .7128. This is a key area because aggressive counter-trend buyers may attempt to form a secondary higher bottom on a test of this area.

A sustained move over .7252 will signal the presence of buyers. The next rally, however, is likely to be labored because of a series of potential resistance levels including last week’s high at .7302, the intermediate Fibonacci level at .7307, a main top at .7314 and the main 50% level at .7349.

The trigger point for an acceleration to the upside is .7349. Overtaking this level with rising volume could drive the AUD/USD into the main Fibonacci level at .7426.

Source: https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... 349-537210
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎

AUD/USD fails to sustain the bounce above 0.7200

10
AUD/USD fails to sustain the bounce above 0.7200

  • Resurgent US dollar demand, negative oil prices keep the bounce limited.
  • Focus on the Fedspeaks, USD dynamics and China data dump for fresh impetus.

The USD bulls appear to have regained the poise in the European trading, breaking the AUD/USD pair lower from its consolidative phase, following the Asian bounce back above the 0.72 handle.

The Aussie jumped nearly 40-pips and hit daily tops near 0.7220 levels in Asia after the risk sentiment got a lift from the renewed optimism over the US-China trade talks, as the Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He was said to visit the US to discuss on the trade issue ahead of the meeting between the US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi scheduled later this month.

However, the bulls failed to resist above the 0.72 handle, courtesy bearish technical set up and downbeat Australian NAB confidence and condition readings released earlier today. More so, a fresh buying interest seen around the US dollar across its main competitors combined with falling oil prices also dragged the spot lower, as markets await the Fedspeaks and the sentiment on the Wall Street for further momentum.

Also, in focus remains Wednesday’s Australian wage price index data and Chinese economic releases for any sustained recovery momentum in the major.

AUD/USD Technical Levels

Overview:
Last Price: 0.7194
Daily change: 12 pips
Daily change: 0.167%
Daily Open: 0.7182

Trends:
Daily SMA20: 0.7144
Daily SMA50: 0.716
Daily SMA100: 0.7261
Daily SMA200: 0.7466

Levels:
Daily High: 0.7239
Daily Low: 0.7181
Weekly High: 0.7304
Weekly Low: 0.7183
Monthly High: 0.724
Monthly Low: 0.702
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7203
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7217
Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7162
Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7143
Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7104
Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.722
Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7258
Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7278

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-f ... 1811131006
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 37 guests