Re: EUR/USD

308
EUR/USD, GBP/USD Trade Lower After Underwhelming Brexit Progress

Talking Points:

- EU and UK are open to extended Brexit transition and implementation period.

- Officials from both parties expressed optimism and a desire to conclude Brexit.

- Irish border issues still remain the key sticking point in Brexit discussions.

As the two-day EU Summit drew to a close Thursday, it would seem Brexit is still very much a work in progress. Although nothing was cemented either way – deal or no deal – officials from both parties expressed optimism and announced agreement over a few key issues. One such issue was the possibility of an extension for the transition period. But neither the British Pound nor the Euro seem to be inspired by the progress made the past few days.

European Council President Donald Tusk and UK Prime Minister Theresa May reiterated their willingness to accept an extension, which was later confirmed by comments from European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. Juncker said “extending the transition period will probably happen.”

At this time, neither side has commented on the exact length of the extension period. Based on media reports, it would appear likely that the transition window would be pushed back from December 2020 to December 2021 at a minimum.

Read more: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundament ... gress.html
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EUR/USD: Downside exposed

309
EUR/USD: Downside exposed as Italy yield spreads spike, US-DE spreads continue to rise

The EUR/USD dropped to 1.1449 yesterday - the lowest level since Oct. 9 - and looks set to drop further to 1.14 as various yield spreads are rising in the EUR-negative manner.

Technical Overview
The pair trades at its lowest in over a week, and with a strong downward momentum according to technical readings in the 4 hours chart, as the price is further below sharply bearish 20 and 100 SMA, both still converging above the current level, as technical indicators resumed their slides now nearing oversold readings. Given the repeated failure to surpass the 1.1520 area, the 23.6% retracement of its latest daily decline, the pair has now room to extend its decline to 1.1430, the base of the mentioned decline.

Support levels: 1.1430 1.1400 1.1365

Resistance levels: 1.1490 1.1520 1.1575

Fundamental Overview
A short-lived attempt to recover ground at the beginning of the London session was capped by selling interest around a Fibonacci resistance level, a sign of resurgent dollar's demand. Such advance was backed by a positive opening of European equities and an uptick in US Treasury yields. Stocks and yields, however, turned south after the American opening, with mounting concerns about slowing global economy after the Chinese stock market collapsed overnight. There were minor macroeconomic releases both shores of the Atlantic that had little effects on the pair, with a modest increase in the German's Wholesale Price Index in September, and the October US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, which came in at 22.2, beating the market's estimates of 20.0. The pair made a second attempt to break above 1.1520 on comments from ECB's Draghi, who repeated his optimistic outlook of the local economy, but sellers pushed the price back lower.

This Friday, the EU will only offer the August Current Account, while the US will release Existing Home Sales data for September, while a couple of FOMC's members will hit the wires, nothing that can affect sentiment-related trading.


Read more: https://www.fxstreet.com/currencies/eur ... neric-news
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EUR/USD fragile, now looks to 1.1400

310
FX Strategists at UOB Group noted the pair looks vulnerable and could test the 1.1400 area in the next weeks.

Key Quotes
24-hour view: “The ‘target’ indicated at 1.1470 yesterday was exceeded as EUR slumped to an overnight low of 1.1447. Downward momentum has improved considerably and from here, a break of last month’s 1.1430 would not surprise at all and the next support at 1.1400 may just come into the picture as well. On the upside, we expect 1.1510 to be strong enough to cap any intraday EUR strength (minor resistance is at 1.1485)”.

Next 1-3 weeks: “We indicated yesterday (18 Oct, spot at 1.1505) EUR could “weaken further in the coming days” but highlighted “strong support is expected at 1.1430”. However, the subsequent decline was more rapid and ‘impulsive’ than expected as EUR plummeted to a low of 1.1447. The price action not only suggests a break of 1.1430 seems likely now but also the next support at 1.1400 is ‘vulnerable’. Looking ahead, a clear break of 1.1400 would be a good indication that EUR could threaten the year-to-date low near 1.1300. All in, we expect EUR to stay on the defensive in the coming days unless it can reclaim 1.1540 (‘key resistance’ was at 1.1590 yesterday)”.
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