Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Krelian99 wrote:This and some other points I'm d'accord with him. I don't see him as authority. I also don't like his fractals using as support/resistance.



Then show us your definition of a fractal... But why you need all these indicators? What has that to do with Chaos Theory? There are also fractals that looks like the ones from B. Williams.
Hey boss, why depend on me for such simple questions when it is all laid out neatly for you to consider and accept or reject in the chaology? That is the point of this thread. Forum members first read the proposition and then engage with me and other participants to share and learn whatever our perspectives are on the issues arising. That way we can all have fun. In fact you might even discover that you understand this thing more than I do and lead me through your thinking and that way I can improve my thinking also. So you are not being fair to me or the others who have read or are reading the output if you want me to repeat what I have already put out in elaborate detail, here. I want to engage not with partial views from me or any other person but with views that have a firsthand understanding of the chaology. Come on lets have fun and all you have asked are all in there - neatly laid out and waiting for you.



BTW: Did you know that mathematics is unable to define what a fractal is? Not even the great Mandelbrot could - that is how tough it is (Mandelbrot of course is a genius in the path of Einstein). But we do a nice job in the chaology - check it out boss.


Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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I'm no boss. You are contrary to yourself. That's what confuses me.

Page 6 of your presentation is dedicated to the predictability and that it can be improved.
Also we do not predict - NEVER. [post #26]
Page 8: "The point here is that fractals are described by precise mathematical rules and properties -  and these describe fractals NOT to be random." Following page is about mathematic models of Fractal Geometry.
BTW: Did you know that mathematics is unable to define what a fractal is?[post #31]
Pages 12-16 are the important ones in my eyes, and yes I absolutely agree. Understand the money flow and you understand the market. But who knows if you say that's already obsolete. And then I see the chart you posted and this has nothing to do with the idea of these 5 pages of your presentation in your first post and has nothing to do with the Chaos Theory as you describe at page 12-16 either. Obviously, you see the market in a different way when you use this chart, and here I wondered what YOU define as fractal. Have you read or understood your own presentation? I'm not so sure, and I'm also not sure whether you understood B. Williams, but please go on trying to insult me per PM if you have fun with that. I have still a real life.

Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Fellow members,if saying yes yes and ok is good for any and every thing then universe is stopped at its current status even after more centuries,i think to oppose some thing and exchange plus/minus is the part of study and learning and a cause and intention to improve some thing in its better form,also it provide chance to the narrator to explain it more accurate and proper way,so i hope cross talk discussion will be increase knowledge as a results more in concise way .... not in the sense to win or defeat
regards
Indicator is just a tool.

Use it only if it can benefit you. Leave it if you don't know how to use it optimally.

Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Krelian99 wrote:I'm no boss. You are contrary to yourself. That's what confuses me.

Page 6 of your presentation is dedicated to the predictability and that it can be improved.


Page 8: "The point here is that fractals are described by precise mathematical rules and properties -  and these describe fractals NOT to be random." Following page is about mathematic models of Fractal Geometry.


Pages 12-16 are the important ones in my eyes, and yes I absolutely agree. Understand the money flow and you understand the market. But who knows if you say that's already obsolete. And then I see the chart you posted and this has nothing to do with the idea of these 5 pages of your presentation in your first post and has nothing to do with the Chaos Theory as you describe at page 12-16 either. Obviously, you see the market in a different way when you use this chart, and here I wondered what YOU define as fractal. Have you read or understood your own presentation? I'm not so sure, and I'm also not sure whether you understood B. Williams, but please go on trying to insult me per PM if you have fun with that. I have still a real life.
Aha - now we can talk and of course (reading the stuff once again, this time without annoyance toward anything we have said to each other so far would indeed help). But let us deal with your questions one by one. a) Slides 11 - 17 to which you refer as 12 - 16 have nothing whatsoever to do with money flow - that section has to do with market microstructure, order flow and how the microstructure defines spot pivots, highlighting the iterative nature of the process and especially how i) the order matching process defines dynamic "demand and supply schedules" in order to process ii) latent dynamic "demand and supply curves" in market time. iii) We then show how the output of this process resolves in price points (clearing points) called spot pivots we especially show how something called intermittency (or aperiodic cyclicality - the signature sign of chaos) conditions the microstructure. iv) We then move from that to define why and how the simplicity and recursion of market transactions define the fractality of markets. v) After which we define and justify what we call fractal primitives by the Iterated Functions Systems (IFS) formalism of fractal geometry (thus incontrovertibly defining what a market fractal is and how it behaves) vi) finally we define the self-affine nature of market fractals for exactly how they define in micro (and therefore macro) space i.e. as linear inequalities and show clearly how the feedback loop works in the cyclical flow of markets. The problem with thinking of this section as dealing with money flow is that it misses the point and especially the fit with the technical descriptions of chaos in slides 2 and 3 (I hope you understood those and their importance to our discovery) as well as the connection with fractals in slides 6 - 9  (which is a very short and simple course in fractal geometry). So everything follows a logical sequence from the first slide to the last in the series. I of course cannot discuss the more interesting sections beyond where you apparently stopped and which shows the behavior and nature of fractals in the macrostructure and the final parts which shows how we trade fractals because you clearly have not read them (otherwise you would be clear how and why all of our charts, as they are now, are expressions of the same thing we describe in the chaology whether we track them as fractals or as Gann squares or whatever). I would of course encourage that you persist beyond where you stopped as you will then see what I mean here even more clearly. b) So we NEVER predict because the model is so intuitive you just sit back and let it tell when to trade and for what range (once the indication is that price is locked into a defined phase in a defined direction and for a defined range) so there is in fact no sense in which my chart or the chart you showed us earlier in the thread are not about chaos and fractals. However, in order to understand why in fact my chart particularly fits the thinking outlined please review this post. There is no contradiction whatsoever and I would encourage you to explore our meanings with an open mind (and especially ignore at this point whatever seeming animosity existed before now since we are now getting to be on the same page. Sometimes the human process of developing a positive relationship does not begin on a positive note but our goals are the same to improve our understanding of the market and as such we should be friends don't you think?). Finally, boss is a fun word friends use to call each other and of course you being from a different culture than me implies that you may not fully understand the nuances of my behaviors and me yours but lets not hold that against each other. No insult was intended. Of course you know the reference to our PM discussions (which finally led I think to this positive development) is more a misunderstanding now resolved than anything else - as gentlemen we should bear no grudge and move on. We are now best friends are we NOT? Cheers mate and thanks for taking your time to begin the process of constructive engagement.

:)

Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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This is to the everybody crowd,

It is best to view the slides in Powerpoint slide show mode because of the animations contained.I attach again here the presentation guide to allow joined-up thinking as one reviews the sequence of slides.I really do hope we can think and talk about the presentation in a constructive way as there is much we can share - of that I am convinced.Best wishes to all,


Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Darkdoji wrote:What baffles me is that none of us lived in the time of Dow, Gann, E. Waves etc but we celebrate their theories though dated. Then came along one even greater than them by the name of Mandelbrot and we ignore what he has to say, in our very time? That is what I do not understand. Pity because the loss will be ours he is done and gone.


Dow, Gann, E. Waves were all pagans who believed in multiple deities...while I love my mandelbrot with butter, cheese and a thin slice of meat...but sometimes I develop strong heartburn after digesting it...

Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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You are there where many were before. They wanted to slay the markets with pure math and failed. They did everything to make Turtles and HFT failing in the end. In homogeneous systems you can slay it with math only, no question. All the very nice approaches when you have no direct physical connection of input and output. But ask yourself, is the market homogeneous? Yes, the market repeats patterns all the time and that at certain places. That also doesn't help you, other chaos knights tried and had only moderate success. All the different traders with different moods and interests and changing them over time. Best proof was last week. All waited for NFP release on Friday. The market behaved clearly different from normal. When you respect their rules you could do some pips, NTL. Deal with it. You have to play on their 'rigged' field, so their rules. When you have really much money you can play the markets to your rules, but wouldn't you do everything with your possibilities that others loose and you get even more money? And wouldn't it be just a self-fulfilling prophecy again as well, as Fibonacchi, TLs, Elliot Waves and so on? No question that Mandelbrot is an interesting man and had clever ideas, but bankers play another game and maybe have never heard of Mandelbrot. What you can do is to look for something-something session-wise. Very often the NY-session moves anti-London-session and Asian session is mostly calm (see Asian-session BO strategy). Traditionally, USDJPY raise a bit before it falls a while at the end of March. So, also as pure TA trader I have to respect some FA, otherwise...

PS: Pava is right. Mandelbrot is a religion to you. The free human-driven market is a universe where it fails. You can ask the Chicago Boys. They always, really always, failed because they didn't calculate with the uncertainty factor 'human' in their equations.


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