Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

71
nathanvbasko wrote: Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:09 am I am still in Chaos after reading the thread so far
Sir, I sincerely hope you will keep with the thread - even if at this point, what I have put out appears to you more like babble, than something worth a good (or even exceptional) trader's time. It is not as simple as to just lay out a "formula" or list to do (and not to do) items and describe such a listing as a "system" as may be common. This is something more profound and far more complex than to handle in that way. It is a way to see and trade the market differently and I admit I am not a professional "trainer" and maybe I have not the skills to communicate as one. I also am not selling anything, I am just motivated to share. The intention is to share with those traders like me, who have traded the tenebrific methods of "technicals" and "fundamentals" mindlessly for so long, without sustainable gain. That is, to show that in fact, there is a third and far more profitable (and accurate) way to read and trade the markets. Professor Benoit Mandelbrot who discovered fractal geometry is quoted as saying, “Fractal geometry is not just a chapter of mathematics, but one that helps Everyman to see the same world differently.” Mandelbrot was NOT a trader and could not understand why anyone would actually trade the markets if they actually knew what they were getting into "mathematically." What he probably did not understand (because he was not a trader) is that traders who do get to understand what the market is "mathematically" would learn to use that understanding to control the risk Mandelbrot was so alarmed by (and thereby fulfil their objectives far more efficiently profits wise), since traders by inclination, are people who will take the risk regardless to make the market. I pray you would at least be patient with us and soon you might begin to see the sense in it all. Cheers (-_-)

PS: Mathematics, broadly, will describe various aspects of the market according to different formalisms. What I mean by understanding the market "mathematically" is understanding the market by Mandelbrot's mathematics. As esoteric as that mathematics is, the average trader (non mathematician) is exceptionally lucky in that Mandelbrot's mathematics is in fact intuitive because it is visual and speaks to exactly what we deal with as traders everyday. So in the end it is about understanding something you already know in a formalized sense which allows you to visualize (see) the market differently. You do not have to be a mathematician to know the maths, but you need to be a trader intent on beating the market consistently.
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Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

72
Darkdoji wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 5:10 pm
Sir, I sincerely hope you will keep with the thread - even if at this point this may appear to you more like babble than something worth a good (or even exceptional) trader's time. It is not as simple as to just lay out a "formula" or a listing of to do items and describe it as a "system" as may be common to you. This is something more profound and far more complex than to handle in that way. It is a way to see and trade the market differently and I admit I am not a professional "trainer" and maybe I have not the skills to communicate as one. I also am not selling anything, I am just motivated to share with those traders like me who traded the tenebrific methods of "technicals" and "fundamentals" mindlessly for so long without sustainable gain, that there is, in fact, a third and far more profitable way to read and trade the markets. Professor Benoit Mandelbrot who discovered fractal geometry is quoted as saying, “Fractal geometry is not just a chapter of mathematics, but one that helps Everyman to see the same world differently.” Mandelbrot was not a trader and could not understand why anyone would actually trade the markets if they actually knew what they were getting into "mathematically." What he probably did not understand was traders who do get to understand what the market is "mathematically" would learn to use that understanding to control the risk Mandelbrot was so alarmed by. I pray you would at least be patient with us and soon you might begin to see the sense in it all. Cheers (-_-)
Dark! It's great to see your posts bro. Keep posting, I love reading through them. I don't think Nate was being mean, he was just kidding :P

Thank you for your great posts about Chaos Theory.
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Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

73
Darkdoji wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 5:10 pm
Sir, I sincerely hope you will keep with the thread - even if at this point, what I have put out appears to you more like babble, than something worth a good (or even exceptional) trader's time. It is not as simple as to just lay out a "formula" or list to do (and not to do) items and describe such a listing as a "system" as may be common. This is something more profound and far more complex than to handle in that way. It is a way to see and trade the market differently and I admit I am not a professional "trainer" and maybe I have not the skills to communicate as one. I also am not selling anything, I am just motivated to share. The intention is to share with those traders like me, who have traded the tenebrific methods of "technicals" and "fundamentals" mindlessly for so long, without sustainable gain. That is, to show that in fact, there is a third and far more profitable (and accurate) way to read and trade the markets. Professor Benoit Mandelbrot who discovered fractal geometry is quoted as saying, “Fractal geometry is not just a chapter of mathematics, but one that helps Everyman to see the same world differently.” Mandelbrot was NOT a trader and could not understand why anyone would actually trade the markets if they actually knew what they were getting into "mathematically." What he probably did not understand (because he was not a trader) is that traders who do get to understand what the market is "mathematically" would learn to use that understanding to control the risk Mandelbrot was so alarmed by (and thereby fulfil their objectives far more efficiently profits wise), since traders by inclination, are people who will take the risk regardless to make the market. I pray you would at least be patient with us and soon you might begin to see the sense in it all. Cheers (-_-)

PS: Mathematics, broadly, will describe various aspects of the market according to different formalisms. What I mean by understanding the market "mathematically" is understanding the market by Mandelbrot's mathematics. As esoteric as that mathematics is, the average trader (non mathematician) is exceptionally lucky in that Mandelbrot's mathematics is in fact intuitive because it is visual and speaks to exactly what we deal with as traders everyday. So in the end it is about understanding something you already know in a formalized sense which allows you to visualize (see) the market differently. You do not have to be a mathematician to know the maths, but you need to be a trader intent on beating the market consistently.
Hi Dark...

Nice read again, I really enjoyed your post about Chaos Theory, a very much informative posting about the topic.
Yes, Jimmy was right, I'm kidding only. It just means I wanted more information.

By the way, ...first time I heard or read about the word "tenebrific". I will try to squeeze (forcefully use) this out or use it often to sound intelligent ; )─ But, again, just kidding (it is true, I think I will). Anyway, that third-wheeling kind of trading more profitable is something I look forward to getting more information from you. Of course in trading terms, as third-wheeling is not a good thing personally.

Keep it up.

Kindest regards...
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my charts sing... ♪  I did it, My... Way...  ♬ ; )─

Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Jimmy wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 5:14 pm
Dark! It's great to see your posts bro. Keep posting, I love reading through them. I don't think Nate was being mean, he was just kidding :P

Thank you for your great posts about Chaos Theory.
Thanks bro I appreciate. I am truly passionate about this because for me it is a breakthrough in trading. Been trading over 13 years, 9 of those I spent studying first chaos theory and then fractal geometry to understand them both enough to adapt that understanding into trading ability (I am not the smartest person on the planet obviously to be so slow on the uptake - mean). Why? Because experience showed me that the 2 coequally linear methods of "technicals" and "fundamentals" were gambles in a non-linear and aperiodically cyclical theatre and I did not know how much of a gamble they were until chaos taught me why they would NEVER pay me. In those years before mastery of the sciences I lost something like 65K$ but persisted to this point in part because I want my money back - all of it plus (where I come from 65K$ is a fortune to the average person). One of the problems was to find tools (indicators) that suited the mathematics of a single point bounced around in limiting space by some mechanism that iterated that point incessantly (in our case the binary buy/sell actions of market participants). So-called "technical" tools sought to follow "trends" in the linear sense and not in the non-linear sense of chaos (and as such "technical" tools are tough to win with consistently on the "technical" logic of how markets work). That is how I came to this site and how for 9 years I studied the different tools offered by Mladen, mr. tools and others (from TSD) mostly for free (though I bought some). Later I will show how I use some of them and how amazing the results are when you unmask the market to read it as an iterative system rather than what we see depicted as charts of bars or candles (which are just convenient graphical representations of market transactions, not necessarily representation of behaviour intrinsic to the system or market). I found the best and most effective tools here and apart from the fact that the quality of coding was to my mind exceptional and the library of options expansive, the explanations and knowledge of how the tools were designed to work shared here was (and is) a real service to the trading community. I could not have had the sense to read them as I do now (I am not a coder and when I say adapt I mean the way they are read not how they work). I owe it therefore to this site to share what I believe is something sincerely useful to traders like me.

(-_-) Cheers and thanks once again for your kind words.

BTW: I sincerely think that all the traders that use this site (in my experience) are not only exceptionally knowledgeable, many are truly gifted - what I picked up from discussions of John Ehlers "technical" ideas and discussions on cyclic and other tools generally is simply amazing. I salute them all, especially Mladen and mr. tools (the latter helped explain stuff in email exchanges and provided insights on what works and the former in my opinion is an exceptionally gifted coder and a highly principled person). Still happy to learn so anyone with a perspective which I might be missing should please let me know - I am always ready to learn new things.

Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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nathanvbasko wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:31 pm
Hi Dark...

Nice read again, I really enjoyed your post about Chaos Theory, a very much informative posting about the topic.
Yes, Jimmy was right, I'm kidding only. It just means I wanted more information.

By the way, ...first time I heard or read about the word "tenebrific". I will try to squeeze (forcefully use) this out or use it often to sound intelligent ; )─ But, again, just kidding (it is true, I think I will). Anyway, that third-wheeling kind of trading more profitable is something I look forward to getting more information from you. Of course in trading terms, as third-wheeling is not a good thing personally.

Keep it up.

Kindest regards...

Hi, Nath that is perfectly ok I would have left this stuff here anyway regardless. Third-wheeling is your count (because if the first two are false models of the market then this is the first) but in any case, I will show you my trading results and you can measure the risk, returns, range of trades, timing, etc. If you do not like it or think it not spectacular enough, straight away dump my views - so just started trading cash again (after every tranche of lost capital I go back to demo, maths, phase space, etc to rework but this is final. Also if I waited until I am "big" and "successful" I might not have the time then). Yea tenebrific is a rare word. And like you, I try to squeeze words like that for the same reason. So we are not at all different on that score (everyone does it I think). But this time I am not squeezing usage - I sincerely mean it. Those methods blind you then blame you for inability suggesting all the while it is to do with your knowledge, or skill or your mental make up, etc. Meanwhile, it is nothing to do with you but really to do with being misled by the methods. For instance, Mr. Wave based his wave theory on Dow's psychological waves and the notion that the market is driven by human emotion. If this were correct, then the frequency of win trades using that tool or concept will be exceptional for "experts" in the approach. But notice that they struggle like everyone else - because Elliot's waves are apophenic and random data completely unrelated to the actual behavior of the system. So if you measure the frequency of success of "experts" in that theory, you might find that you are in fact measuring the degree to which the theory is dissonant relative to the reality of markets. Just a thought. Apophenia accurately describes much of the basis of "technical" and "fundamental" studies. Well known in gambling often ignored in trading. The past masters I find did all they could to find patterns they could rely on but in fact, failed. Others after them came and added "fundamentals" in an attempt to "improve" on the past. But like the past, they did not consider the mathematics of iterates in complex dynamical systems. Of course, the past masters could not do that because the computer was not invented. Without computers, the discovery of chaos theory and fractal geometry was impossible (only been around 50 years now). But we have no excuse to not know better. Cheers (-_-)


Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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This is what I wrote in response to this article (I am a guest there so whether I get published is at the discretion of the administrator). I find "scarecrows" everywhere I look in the article above. It reads to me, like a listing of why whatever choice I have made as to the current "trend" may suddenly go wrong. More than anything, its effect is to scare me, make me doubt my prospects (given an event ahead). It is also that mindset, formed from reading this style (if you like) of analysis, that causes traders to doubt their chart readings, thereby increasing the unforced error rate in trade decision-making and, therefore, losses when trading around event time (and I can speak for self). This posting style I call "scarecrow" analysis is very typical of "fundamental" and "technical" analysts. These articles, claim to know everything that might affect direction this or that way, but NEVER give a confident read of what is the most likely outcome. They leave the strong suggestion, therefore, (and implant the fear) that the market is random (in the sense of erratic). But what if you knew that all the factors usually mentioned in situations like this, do not account for direction at all? What if you knew that, the market is simply a mathematically chaotic system underpinned by a fractal structure and therefore nonrandom? You would trade what you know and cut out the noise from market opinion. For instance, Gold is persistent down at this time and therefore it should be the trading plan to sell Gold around the NFPs release (that is if you have not been selling rallies before now and or are day trading). Regardless of print, Gold MUST fall. Why? Because chaos shows that outcome depends on sequence and sequence alone and therefore "trends" persist (the market is not random). There is no point trying to predict the unpredictable when you can trade what you know. Just a thought.
(-_-)

PS: On posting this I got back to my console and saw that the system of pivoting had updated to read a reversal higher is more likely i.e. a sequence change up is indicated. I took out my 4 trades in profit and holding on to see when the signal that gives me entry go ahead up will indicate trade up is safe.

Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Darkdoji wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:58 pm
Darkjoy, i am keen to see how you are combining Chaos and Fractals, I have to say I am not a great fun of fractals (because i do not understand how to use them), but your take of the application of Chaos theory, to what appear to be a chaotic system, is very interesting, and it reflects the trend in professional/blue-chip which more and more are using machine learning and AI on their trading algorithms.

Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Fabio.g wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 6:59 pm

Darkjoy, i am keen to see how you are combining Chaos and Fractals, I have to say I am not a great fun of fractals (because i do not understand how to use them), but your take of the application of Chaos theory, to what appear to be a chaotic system, is very interesting, and it reflects the trend in professional/blue-chip which more and more are using machine learning and AI on their trading algorithms.

Hi Fabio, please forgive my silence for so long after your post. My trading is in a spot of trouble (rather significant trouble) and I am desperately trying to salvage things even now. Not much merit in anything I say here unless I can get the model to work as designed. So please give me sometime to sort myself out and I will give you a full and interesting response to your very interesting (and important) remarks). I hope you understand and will bear with me for a bit. Merit is important in what I am trying to do and say here. The name is Darkdoji not Darkjoy. Thank you for your understanding. It will not be long, I pray.

(-_-)
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Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Darkdoji wrote: Wed Jul 24, 2019 7:54 pm Hi Fabio, please forgive my silence for so long after your post. My trading is in a spot of trouble (rather significant trouble) and I am desperately trying to salvage things even now.

(-_-)
Prayers to you Dark. You're not alone, I'm stuck in a terrible long trade in EUR/USD for a few months now.

Wishing you a speedy exit and a breakeven.
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Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

80
Darkdoji wrote: Wed Jul 24, 2019 7:54 pm
Hi Fabio, please forgive my silence for so long after your post. My trading is in a spot of trouble (rather significant trouble) and I am desperately trying to salvage things even now. Not much merit in anything I say here unless I can get the model to work as designed. So please give me sometime to sort myself out and I will give you a full and interesting response to your very interesting (and important) remarks). I hope you understand and will bear with me for a bit. Merit is important in what I am trying to do and say here. The name is Darkdoji not Darkjoy. Thank you for your understanding. It will not be long, I pray.

(-_-)
Darkdoji

no worries, i am actually in the same position. but i am trying to understand if i can implement some machine learning techniques into the chaos theory, by mean of python.


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