Re: A New Trading Game (chaos game) Played for Money and Played in Risk- Free Space

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Manu9710 wrote: Sun Feb 12, 2023 12:43 pm is a Mladen indicator based on the fourier transform
Another Mladen indicator that does this so well is the TMA and initially when I started modeling the market (as a polynomial function), I tortured that indicator to confess its secrets --> very useful I found. The market though (I found out) could not be modelled the way I was going then and so my lovely TMA and other crazily fantastic Mladen indicators e.g. Better Bollinger Bands, etc had to give way. TMA and another indicator mrtools spent a lot of time making right for me do feature in Orbit but not in the way I used them before I understood chaos. Once I did understand chaos I stopped trying to use indicators as indicators and began to see them more in the analytic frame, i.e. what chaotic information can they be tortured to confess and what topological properties do they exhibit in range. But I tell you this was (Forex Station) and I guess still is the hub of the greatest trading indicators. Though now I know that an accurate MA will not give you crosses that lead you to trade the entire scale interval the market offers and not because there is anything wrong with them ---> but the way the market fluctuates often neutralizes their readings in terms of what is going on and what will happen next.

(-_-)


Re: A New Trading Game (chaos game) Played for Money and Played in Risk- Free Space

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So after I rest a bit from the pain in my arms typing the trading will do the math - visual and simple so everyone can see the fit with the model and as such trust what they trade and know that it took ten years but we got it dead right. Give me a little while to think how best to present that in a way everyone can relate to easy.

(-_-)
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LikeRe: A New Trading Game (chaos game) Played for Money and Played in Risk- Free Space

363
[quote=Darkdoji post_id=1295503421 time=1676203657 user_id=4869844]
TRADING ORBIT THE TOOL FOR REAL
Background
Orbit the Tool is an exact Oscillator model of the market, an oscillator model is as explained in a handout already provided. At all times, the model reports the state of the market exactly. Therefore, to trade by the model the user has no need for market analysis - reading the model correctly is the same as analysing the market correctly at any time point in a live market.

Price is an iterate (Google up), and our mathematics show that it evolves in bijective streams going up (rally) or down (selloff). What is a bijection? For our purposes, a Semaphore point that moves from the Low of the i - Highlow band to the High of the same band, and a Semaphore point that moves from the High of the i-Highlow band to a low of the same band is bijective. This is true for any and all time frames and note that low and high of i-Highlow depends on when price stops to move id (e.g. 5n at a KSO limit changes sign at either band end).

The difference in the change between a high and a low or a low and a high Semaphore point is called a translation and it is this difference we want to take advantage of when we trade. At a low we buy in the expectation that when a translation to a high occurs we sell to pocket the difference and vice versa. Important to understand that the market is a nested system of pivots, e.g. a Semaphore at 9n low has an exact counterpart in 8n, 7n, ... n and all move together in one and ONLY one direction at a time (but the movement is sequenced so, e.g. n or other partition rising in a falling 9n market does not mean price is behaving differently in the 2 partitions, just shows that price rises to fall and falls to rise but signals the range (depth) of change by partition (i.e., price as a unit strictly follows the Strange Attractor pattern always).

So the main question for a trader is timing. When is a Semaphore (or a point), ready to translate id? Reading Orbit indications tell you when (but note that translation speeds are not even so, e.g. a translation from 0 - 500 points can take a minute or a day, etc but the process remains the same and as described). Orbit the Tool times the begin and end of translations (at scale) exactly. What is scale? For our purposes the size of the range for which price travels as a unit at the same time to a single end point (i.e., all time frames synchronized id), from a low Semaphore to a high Semaphore and vice versa (Spike Events). In the most simplistic sense, use scale to mean the per interval difference between a low 6n Semaphore and a high 6n Semaphore (and vice versa). Do not worry about time frames Orbit measures at intraday scale and price can NEVER move below or above that scale at a time because market movements are constrained by clock time.

Now, because price is an iterate it will repeatedly translate in the said alternate up and down movements (bijections) as it rises (rally) or as it falls (selloff). In other words, price is nonmonotonic because it moves up and down whether it is going up or down. But we know that this up and down movement sustains for one and ONLY one direction at A time (sustains for a scale interval). It is important to understand this because rising price may "pullback" at scale without changing the direction (reversal) and the same is true for falling price. But in trading by the model focus on scale since a movement is not over (the scale interval remains open id) until and unless the bijections in one direction are "complete" at scale or *(n - Xn show new and oppositely signed Semaphores of equal signature + Orbit turns). Signature? Inspect the Semaphore heads and see that they are differently marked and a bijection id is not complete until the marking at a low is the same as at a high and vice versa (X = Y, Y = X).* Take Xn to imply the largest partition (e.g. 5n), for which the given condition is true and whether or not a bijection is complete at scale.

Steps in Trading the Model

Step 1 : Select a Market Window
Orbit the Tool reads the market to scale. This means it reads the longest (zigzag) diagonal available at a time so you get the largest exit possible (i.e. as allowed by the market), in range each move. It does not matter whether you are a so called position trader or a scalper the market allows no more and no less than the Orbit scale at any one time. This can be traded from any market window (M1 - MN). So the choice of market window is for a trader to decide - based on what he is comfortable with in reading available moves. Of course a position trader may prefer the Weekly window and a scalper may prefer the M1 window but the movements they will experience is the same and to the same range though with the different perspectives they can decide things e.g., strategy as one decides to harvest discrete runs and the other invests to hold or whatever per period.

Step 2: Evaluate (scope) the market
Common sense demands you scope the charts every time you begin a session (i.e., page to the left and right of your trade window to other screens to scope the market). You are looking for Semaphores per page where they are locating relative to the i-Highlow band and what at signature and trying to gain a sense of "price disposition," as well as location of the singularity per page using the MRI e.g., is price in the folding range of the D1 window or is it in the stretching range (gaining a sense of space in direction). What you really want from all of this is the orientation of your trading mind (e.g. if price is folding in WK and is currently at a low what does that imply for movement and what kind of space is available (either direction), measured by the MRI). But when you go back to your trade window keep all your scoping in the back of your mind, make no firm decisions and focus ONLY on what the screenface is telling you. However, before going from scoping to the screenface spend a little time looking at the KSO - where did you meet the intraday array of partitions? At lows, in range (R) or at highs? From your scoping and check on the KSO intraday array any sense of a fit? And with that you now focus on the screenface.

Step 3: Reading the State of the System (Note: the system is the market NOT the tool - this is Chaos and the market is the system you trade)
a) Where is the secret arrow pointed? The secret arrow is the investment direction - we sometimes say long-term but really that is the direction the market is invested in. But the market is also investing in that direction rationally and based on an important fact - where the Initial Value is pointing since that is the direction in which the market is iterating all prior investments in the market and therefore directly related in direction to Spike Event and the Top Arrow which point the way.

b) Where is the range arrow pointed? The range arrow is the current fluctuation or lack of fluctuation in the investment. We say short-term but in fact in the iterative process its up and down changes actually grow direction either way and it is a critical part of system (market) behaviour.

c) Where is the spot arrow pointing? This is the risk for new bets. Are you coming from KSO lows or highs or is the distribution of partitions in the middle, and if so with what signs? Where is 9n - the unit in KSO anyway and what does that mean for the outlook you are reading? You are betting based on your read of a) and b) but the spot arrow is also your (best) lead based on your read of the KSO and Cyclicality - WHY? Momentum of course, how does that look from those 2 and the power reader (so all we have mentioned are not just indications they are context readers and require you to consider why you are deciding the way you are).

d) But where is the confidence you should have in the decision you are about to make? Term Trade arrow and its components is where to find confidence. This tells you how risky what you are about to decide is. It is a measure of how volatility is deviated across partitions. Up or down but also over what partitions? All 6 intraday partitions? Or just the first 3? Stable or in a flux? All 6 intraday is great but only the first 3 is short termist given a lack of hold on the middle market (middle 3) and then again the KSO and Cyclicality - are they incrementing or dementing the chances of growth, and which direction? Last 3 is often history but it is also market inclination (can kick your a*%). In any case should be obvious what to think from reading a - c plus all the points made so far. This is all clearly going to take some practice and observation (but is so intuitively logical learning it this way is a breeze) and I mention all of this only for your peace of mind. Orbit the Tool is intended for strategic traders and all I have said above would not scare a strategic trader it would or should make him see he will be happy with the tool. Orbit is not just accurate it makes the user think rationally in the few minutes, even seconds (with practice), it takes to read the state of the system and input your call.

e) Changing your mind. Yes you can do so quickly and very profitably if despite all reason you go ahead and be yourself and make the wrong call. Well it is a market and if it is not up it is down so you entered up and suddenly all hell breaks the other way -----> kill the wrong input and reenter correctly the Orbit play you now see as the right play. YOU WILL RECOVER ANY LOSS AND MAKE ENOUGH MONEY TO FORGET YOU EVER MESSED UP EVEN WITH THE BEST TRADING SURFACE ON EARTH. Never regret stay alert to correct - Orbit is NEVER wrong but you are not Orbit, you learn to read Orbit correctly.

f) So you are now cruising and feeling good about life and trading - not so tough after all you are saying to yourself. This is also the time to look more closely at the term arrows and strategy lines -----> what are they saying and what does that mean for the price action ahead? The term arrows give you information about now and the future and allows you to work things out in your mind - we have Short-Term (S), Medium-Term (M) and Long- Term (L). They are there to show you what the changes now mean for the positioning of price in future and so do not act on them spontaneously rather allow them to feed your sense of how things are shaping in range so when you do act you do so with a full sense of the market. They relate as well to the Ordinals at the top marked similarly and the Ordinals in addition to pointing direction per term tell you whether the move in term direction is id (one pointer) or in flux (two pointers red and black). Finally, They (term arrows) relate to Price Dynamics which tells you the kind of fluctuation you are trading (Persistent or Anti-persistent), the former will persist id and the latter might soon turn or evolve in to a persistent series - but clearly reflect unstable orbits in terms of where price is headed at a time point.

g) The future of Orbit the Tool is in the cloud. Several more modules and greater functionality and communications. MT4 is constraining such in the prototype tool you are trading (for just 1/3 of what Orbit can do see the problems such as hanging, etc). In the cloud version you should be able to call up context diagrams to tell you more about what is going on. A more sophisticated screenface colour divergence-convergence scheme to tell you intuitively how things are shaping, automatic user defined take profit function (very useful in very volatile assets), very early and direct entry and exit calls, music, news feed, etc. But that needs investor input as it costs a hell of a lot $s to make life that simple for the trader and so I am talking to investors who have no sense or imagination of what the hell I am talking about and always focused on the silly question "so how much does this thing make in a month" - IT IS AN EQUATION IT MAKES MONEY ALL THE TIME AND MULTIPLIED BY THE NUMBER OF SUCCESSFUL USER INCOMEs THE AMOUNT MADE IS UNCOUNTABLE - then they go blank. So we keep trading the prototype until I can find investors who understand what the hell I am talking about and so afford to unleash from the cloud. My aim is to change things so that the haunted may now haunt with a license - if God gives me life to that point. One last thing, newbie traders (I think) keep asking for step by step algorithms and ask things like show us how you make your entries, etc but there is nothing like that to show. You are trading an oscillator model which is loop through ambient space each cycle. So you look to trade from the low KSO (-) range to the high (+) tracking a Semaphore move in 6n to gain the scale interval. Looking at cyclicality and the KSO with all the stuff that has been said above you are guided and you practice with the live feed. Thank you,

The Crow (-_-)

PS: Please do not ask obvious questions you can find for yourself from all the documentation already output. I will not be available for that kind of action. Refer to those handouts and talk to others on the forum. Khan is great and got the hang all by himself within a week of using the tool and is making money now, so lets talk among ourselves what we think and what we know. This is supposed to an open and interactive thread and I am not the sole voice --- it will not be good at all if I am.


Let's hope that God lets him enjoy many years with us.
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Meyney

Re: A New Trading Game (chaos game) Played for Money and Played in Risk- Free Space

365
That the market is nested pivots, makes a lot of sense, after all, if we look at the order book, it is nothing more than orders nested at different levels. I have been doing a retrospective vision of the attractor, to train my eyesight and detect them more easily. I will study your instructions, and I will sit in the KSO, to try to favor the other point that seems crucial to me, to estimate the folding space of the attractor, and to be able to determine turning points


Re: A New Trading Game (chaos game) Played for Money and Played in Risk- Free Space

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Manu9710 wrote: Sat Feb 11, 2023 10:52 pm Here is a curious document that shows and proves that applying chaos theory to financial markets is not as exotic a subject as many may think. This small paper shows parallel research with this system

https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/35988/1/35988.pdf
Yes took a brief look and before now read tons similar to this paper. To tell you the truth I never have had much use for them and ultimately they confused me to no end. There are 3 properties by which a system is classified as chaotic a) sensitivity to initial conditions b) topological transitivity or mixing, and c) dense periodic orbits. All 3 are things one can observe in markets and then add to that (this is me now), a fractal strange attractor. But academics are (to me) a strange lot sometimes (my father was a don a dean of a college so I know them like personally and lived with them growing up), so rather than go for the obvious they insist on measuring the Lyapunov Exponent to declare the presence of chaos. Of course they have their traditions and formalisms in rigorously defining things. But in this case they annoy me like hell - since the Lyapunov Exponent as an indicator of chaos has been a problem. Some find it in markets others do not then those that find it are soon faulted for process etc in an endless rigmarole that is annoying to me. The Lyapunov Exponent measures the rate of bit destruction and I cannot say why, how, or when it was decided as the measure of chaos in a system but for me the 3 things above and other things I have since observed working with chaos simply makes me feel that certain pristine measures make no sense to pursue if the decision is simply to say whether or not the market is chaotic. For instance chaos is defined as the repeated folding and stretching of the space to which a variable maps. Now go to a live MT4 chart and look at tick chart and you will see this with your own very eyes and that is all I need (not to mention how in our templates now we can show this in range). I am a chaotist (a trader who applies the precepts of chaos theory and fractal geometry to trading), and not an academic. Even Mandelbrot plays their game. In his book the "Mis - Behaviour of Markets" he would not respond directly to a question of whether or not the market is chaotic. I think for the reason of indefinite findings on the exponent above, he did not want to call on himself the sort of vicious attacks academics wait to unleash on their peers over such a sensitive (but irrelevant) point. But of course he must know - he created the Mandelbrot set (and showed the truly amazing mathematics of chaos and the beauty of its expression as fractal and a thing very much like the market), and unlike the other academics Mandelbrot actually modeled the market as a fractal and therefore would have seen all there is to see that the market is firmly chaotic (and in other parts of the book alluded to that fact). It is just like in trading - some people want to find the Hurst Exponent in range before they say Hurst is present - I say waste of time (especially because as traders we interface and experience very different data sets than academics use to define certain pristine measures). When I can see anti-persistence in a folding range why should I get so pedantic trying to apply silly indicators (which are not adapted to the data series we see in live trading given the they were formulated from extensive time series data), to find Hurst just to trade? When you see a persistent series (exponential divergence), do you need to know by a Hurst exponent that the space to which the variable is mapping is being stretched posts a persistent series? Such people dwelling on pedantic notions where the object is to find solutions to successful trading are for me a complete waste of time (and not at all well informed about the mathematics involved to apply it creatively but rather leaning on academic "statutes" to navigate space evolving in seconds rather than over decades). If I can see it to the same effect as written in the books it is what it is. The question is, is the market unpredictable or not? It is and for the 3 reasons stated above plus other things I have found and others can see with their eyes. Academics can waste your time sometimes and this is true regardless of their utility and knowledge.

The Crow (-_-)
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Manu9710

Re: A New Trading Game (chaos game) Played for Money and Played in Risk- Free Space

367
Jon wrote: Sun Feb 12, 2023 9:35 pm Hi johnere,

I'm not using this tool right now but i can give you some pointers of where you could start. You are probably getting overwhelmed right now so for you it doesn't seem so simple.

Maybe just stick to one currency pair, open two windows. One with a naked chart and the other with orbit the tool. Observe what's going on and watch the commands change on orbit the tool. Create your own checklist of things you want to see before opening a trade.

Baby steps!
I did not want to make this comment but I will because of this very good post. I use a 9 screen custom made trading console and so I can see the whole thing true at once and indeed the perspective from 9 dimensions of market time is certainly more wholesome and allows far better attention to the dynamics than that gained from a single screen. Watching the fluctuations across time frames simultaneously will confirm everything we are trying to do here visually (e.g. like when we say price across time frames move as one - which is when Orbit trades). But of course the expense of multiple screens and what they do to your eyes over time is a drawback but in my case it is a necessity (part of my job) and without which I would NOT have gone as far as I have. In any case anyone that can get more than one view of the market at the same time has a certain advantage I think.
Cheers I like your idea here very much, similar also to using your existing system with Orbit over 2 computers.
(-_-)
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Jon

Re: A New Trading Game (chaos game) Played for Money and Played in Risk- Free Space

368
k_khan_bt wrote: Sat Feb 11, 2023 4:29 pm Leonardo Da Vinci had stated that there are three types of people:...
'Those who see,
Those who can be shown
and those who will not see.'

Thank You brother Sam @Darkdoji i am profitably trading the system in real account, so far its theory is working fine & i want it to work for the rest, accept my best wishes for all of your success in making huge good bucks with the orbit.

Best Regards
Hey Khan glad to see you back and glad to know you have gone real and doing just fine. I knew you would crack it but you did so real fast. From the start the idea was so clear to you but then your persistence and drive to gain from it I think was the trick. In any case huge congrats and best wishes.

(-_-)
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Re: A New Trading Game (chaos game) Played for Money and Played in Risk- Free Space

369
Darkdoji wrote: Mon Feb 13, 2023 7:23 am Hey Khan glad to see you back and glad to know you have gone real and doing just fine. I knew you would crack it but you did so real fast. From the start the idea was so clear to you but then your persistence and drive to gain from it I think was the trick. In any case huge congrats and best wishes.

(-_-)

PS: Hope you will be around more regularly - lots of folk have questions issues about which you might elect to help out in the good spirit of oneness (Not always easy I know but will be grateful for your kindness when you have that time) . Thanks and talk soon.

Re: A New Trading Game (chaos game) Played for Money and Played in Risk- Free Space

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Darkdoji wrote: Mon Feb 13, 2023 1:02 am I did not want to make this comment but I will because of this very good post. I use a 9 screen custom made trading console and so I can see the whole thing true at once and indeed the perspective from 9 dimensions of market time is certainly more wholesome and allows far better attention to the dynamics than that gained from a single screen. Watching the fluctuations across time frames simultaneously will confirm everything we are trying to do here visually (e.g. like when we say price across time frames move as one - which is when Orbit trades). But of course the expense of multiple screens and what they do to your eyes over time is a drawback but in my case it is a necessity (part of my job) and without which I would NOT have gone as far as I have. In any case anyone that can get more than one view of the market at the same time has a certain advantage I think.
Cheers I like your idea here very much, similar also to using your existing system with Orbit over 2 computers.
(-_-)
It would be great if Orbit could be one indicator with buffers for each symbol or unique object names for each red/green symbol and make it more efficient because I can't load it in more than 1 chart without getting out of ram memory and CPU


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