Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#4472
ImpLaNT wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:24 pm
RplusT wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:40 pm
Xard's new version of the Semafor really got me hooked. I spent more time at the computer over the weekend, then I do when trading. I'm a firm believer in Empirical Science i.e. measurements or data collected through direct observation or experimentation. I have spent lots of time to figure out how to apply a wave structure theory to the market and find out the current position within that structure, which is most important. Sometimes wondering if such structure can be applied if price action is random? But then, Xard comes up with this new version of an indicator and suddenly it all falls in place. It's a real eye opener. Moving back and forth between the TFs from 1m to the highest, it's so easy to see the structure. I'm absolutely puzzled. This is not just an Indicator, it's a highly valuable tool, a real treasure. Well, at least I see it that way and want to express my gratitude to Xard by writing this comment. Thank you so much!
I wonder why this semaphore is so special? This is just a semaphore ... Even if its parameters ideally fall into the market reversals today, it can be said with all certainty that this will definitely not happen tomorrow. Its not an adaptive indicator. The parameters of the zigzag can be twisted indefinitely, but unfortunately this will not make the zigzag smarter ...

And to be completely honest ... Sorry, but I don't understand why there is so much noise and joy around this release? Everyone is making noise, rejoicing .... Personally, I don't really understand the essence of this joy ... Someone tried to look inside the indicators to understand how it works now? This is the same system as in September. In this version of MAv3, Xard abandoned the idea of ​​matching the trend line of the minor TF with the signal line of the major TF. And...this is where the differences end ... Yes, two indicators have been added, which, through markers, show the second point (obviously for especially gifted people who have not learned to count to two). That's all...
If I understood correctly, then the direction of trade by the Xard's words is determined by the semaphores of older periods. But as I said, these are just semaphores. Imagine a long and drawn-out trend that will repaint the big semaphore 5 times or more day after day. And you will enter a pullback trade against the market every time with this approach. This problem was inherent in all previous setups, nothing has changed in this.
At the same time, I don't want to blame Xard in any way ... It's just that this is an almost insoluble problem. I have been struggling with a solution for several years now. A lot of options and approaches have been tried. Result - no solution. Nor is it in this setup. And words, like ... you need to look at the direction of the trend in the older TF's - these are just words ... Not words, this is an indicator on the chart that will clearly indicate when you can enter a trade, and when it is better not to do it. Here's an example ...


Screenshot_706.png



The system gives a clear buy signal from 3470. But you shouldn't do this ... The correct signal for Friday is sell from 3499, which appeared at the end of the day. Those who bought from 3470 were still very lucky that this false upside jump was quite high ... The most likely development of events in such cases is a passage up by 100-120 pips to collect all stops of the crowd, and then down with two or three candles approximately 100 pips each without any second points. This happened more than once and will continue to happen, and everyone who will simply trade using semaphores will always fall into these traps. So, excuse me friends, if I ruined anyone's anticipation of profitable trading next week ... But I'm such an asshole, I always tell the truth, sometimes at the most inopportune time for this.
why was it a fake signal that was a beautiful buy

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#4473
ImpLaNT wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:24 pm

I wonder why this semaphore is so special? This is just a semaphore ... Even if its parameters ideally fall into the market reversals today, it can be said with all certainty that this will definitely not happen tomorrow. Its not an adaptive indicator. The parameters of the zigzag can be twisted indefinitely, but unfortunately this will not make the zigzag smarter ...

And to be completely honest ... Sorry, but I don't understand why there is so much noise and joy around this release? Everyone is making noise, rejoicing .... Personally, I don't really understand the essence of this joy ... Someone tried to look inside the indicators to understand how it works now? This is the same system as in September. In this version of MAv3, Xard abandoned the idea of ​​matching the trend line of the minor TF with the signal line of the major TF. And...this is where the differences end ... Yes, two indicators have been added, which, through markers, show the second point (obviously for especially gifted people who have not learned to count to two). That's all...
If I understood correctly, then the direction of trade by the Xard's words is determined by the semaphores of older periods. But as I said, these are just semaphores. Imagine a long and drawn-out trend that will repaint the big semaphore 5 times or more day after day. And you will enter a pullback trade against the market every time with this approach. This problem was inherent in all previous setups, nothing has changed in this.
At the same time, I don't want to blame Xard in any way ... It's just that this is an almost insoluble problem. I have been struggling with a solution for several years now. A lot of options and approaches have been tried. Result - no solution. Nor is it in this setup. And words, like ... you need to look at the direction of the trend in the older TF's - these are just words ... Not words, this is an indicator on the chart that will clearly indicate when you can enter a trade, and when it is better not to do it. Here's an example ...


Screenshot_706.png



The system gives a clear buy signal from 3470. But you shouldn't do this ... The correct signal for Friday is sell from 3499, which appeared at the end of the day. Those who bought from 3470 were still very lucky that this false upside jump was quite high ... The most likely development of events in such cases is a passage up by 100-120 pips to collect all stops of the crowd, and then down with two or three candles approximately 100 pips each without any second points. This happened more than once and will continue to happen, and everyone who will simply trade using semaphores will always fall into these traps. So, excuse me friends, if I ruined anyone's anticipation of profitable trading next week ... But I'm such an asshole, I always tell the truth, sometimes at the most inopportune time for this.
To put it in a nutshell....... it's not simply some dots, it's the big picture that becomes very clear. I'm sure you heard and read about waves (or cycle) theories. Now I can see at a glance where I am at any time and where my general bias should be. It is of course a total misunderstanding that Semaphores are signals to get into a trade. They show highs and lows and with Xards approach, they also show me the cycle movements. That's most important to me. For getting into a trade there's a lot more to it.

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#4474
RplusT wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:46 pm

To put it in a nutshell....... it's not simply some dots, it's the big picture that becomes very clear. I'm sure you heard and read about waves (or cycle) theories. Now I can see at a glance where I am at any time and where my general bias should be. It is of course a total misunderstanding that Semaphores are signals to get into a trade. They show highs and lows and with Xards approach, they also show me the cycle movements. That's most important to me. For getting into a trade there's a lot more to it.
Perhaps this is my main problem ... I didn’t really hear ... I know the Elliott waves theory too deeply (i can say by heart). And by the way, just like this system, it has that almost the same drawback - the lack of an unambiguous interpretation of the current situation. On any chart, you can draw several (usually 2-3) variants of wave counting and all of them will comply with the rules of the theory. Everything becomes unambiguous only on historical data (just like with semaphores), but no one needs it anymore ...

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#4475
Hi ImpLaNT
i don't think you are an asshole. It's just how you see the new tools. New or not new; Semaphore is semaphore and zigzag is zigzag.
Anyone who has followed every new idea from XARD here at FS from page 1 (February 17, 2017) now has a completely different view of action today. Because it will soon be 4 years. I see this as a kind of training and have learned a lot during that time and of course from the critics of some other members.
At this point, I would like to thank XARD very much. Because leading a thread and pulling it through for so long is not for everyone.[/quote]

... and I completely agree with RplusT with his comment.
Trade what you see, not what you think


Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#4476
ImpLaNT wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:01 pm
And by the way, just like this system, it has that almost the same drawback - the lack of an unambiguous interpretation of the current situation. On any chart, you can draw several (usually 2-3) variants of wave counting and all of them will comply with the rules of the theory. Everything becomes unambiguous only on historical data (just like with semaphores), but no one needs it anymore ...
1. If anyone had indicators that give an "unambiguous interpretation" (i. e. signals that generate a 100% win rate) you would not have a market anymore - it wouldn't be called trading but taking.
2. If for you - (with all your experience) it is easy to interpret the market cycle and its different waves: good. That does not mean that Xard's attempt at making it more visual (even for beginners) is futile, on the contrary: Xard's method is not helping proficient and skillful traders but - most of all - people who still are - more or less - at the beginning of a long journey. And the way he visualizes it right now could accelerate those people's learning curve considerably.
Maybe this is what you don't like - that it took you years of frustration before you understood market cycles while now it can be done in less than a month if an interested and willing person really puts her/his mind to it. (Understanding the market cycles - by the way - does not at all mean that you are able to make money.)

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#4477
ImpLaNT wrote: ↑
Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:01 am
And by the way, just like this system, it has that almost the same drawback - the lack of an unambiguous interpretation of the current situation. On any chart, you can draw several (usually 2-3) variants of wave counting and all of them will comply with the rules of the theory. Everything becomes unambiguous only on historical data (just like with semaphores), but no one needs it anymore ..



That's where I think you got it wrong......cycles cannot show on historical data if those cycles do not exist. On the contrary, it's proof that what seems random to us actually does fit into that theory very well. Drawing some variants in historical data and declare that as theory is nonsense. There are major cycles and minor cycles that one cannot just simply change. Knowing those, and with Xard's approach, seeing them at a glance, gives me the freedom to concentrate on the rest of my trading. instead of spending a lot of time to figure that out. But then, I'm aware that this is and has been my personal approach, and thus I do not tell anyone how to trade.

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#4478
josi wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:20 pm

(Understanding the market cycles - by the way - does not at all mean that you are able to make money.)
Here you are absolutely right. The more you know, the worse you sleep ... This is an axiom
In the same way, I can unequivocally say that a system based on semaphores and crossing of two MA's has nothing to do with market cycles. Market cycles are much more complex. It may not be rocket science, but at the same time there is a lot to learn ...

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#4479
josi wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:20 pm
ImpLaNT wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:01 pm
And by the way, just like this system, it has that almost the same drawback - the lack of an unambiguous interpretation of the current situation. On any chart, you can draw several (usually 2-3) variants of wave counting and all of them will comply with the rules of the theory. Everything becomes unambiguous only on historical data (just like with semaphores), but no one needs it anymore ...
1. If anyone had indicators that give an "unambiguous interpretation" (i. e. signals that generate a 100% win rate) you would not have a market anymore - it wouldn't be called trading but taking.
2. If for you - (with all your experience) it is easy to interpret the market cycle and its different waves: good. That does not mean that Xard's attempt at making it more visual (even for beginners) is futile, on the contrary: Xard's method is not helping proficient and skillful traders but - most of all - people who still are - more or less - at the beginning of a long journey. And the way he visualizes it right now could accelerate those people's learning curve considerably.
Maybe this is what you don't like - that it took you years of frustration before you understood market cycles while now it can be done in less than a month if an interested and willing person really puts her/his mind to it. (Understanding the market cycles - by the way - does not at all mean that you are able to make money.)
I'm Just Totally agree with you, I'm just new here I am trying to learn everything I can and I have been reading from far away just to try to understand everything that helps me become better at trading. I barely understand on the fly how the charts work. I've been trying to understand all this for a year and a half and now it's more than clear with the Xard system. I feel like it's a blessing to me. I can learn this System and start to make some money and at the same time learn to do what I would really like to do for many years.
XARD
you are a true blessing to many of us who only barely understand this world. You are a great man and thank you for all your effort

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

#4480
ImpLaNT wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:51 pm
In the same way, I can unequivocally say that a system based on semaphores and crossing of two MA's has nothing to do with market cycles.
That may be the reason why Xard's system cannot be reduced to "semaphores and the crossing of two MAs" - as - by the way - you know only too well.


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