Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

5241
josi wrote: Tue Jan 05, 2021 7:57 pm
Repeating what you already asserted doesn't make it any more convincing.
I don't tell anybody to do anything (I don't give advice), I want people to think (for themselves).
Empirical evidence:
Look at US100, US500, WS30 etc yesterday, H1.
Everybody can see that yesterday one should have been short (actually, that's why so many were short yesterday - except maybe you.)
You say; don't shorten ever; I give one example which shows clearly your axiom isn't true. Popper calls this falsification.
As I said: long term (investing) is a totally different matter.
But as your answer clearly showed, you don't differentiate between M1 and D1.
Point being: if your daily chart on US500 looked like the the M15 chart (yesterday) we would talk about a major crash - but we don't - it's the timeframe...
But that's why you LOVE your forum...
do you even convince yourself with this nonsense - "Popper.../One half down day"?

1) Google the empirical evidence stating its a waste of time shorting US stocks.
Look at the US stocks chart - it has been a waste of time shorting for 13 years - yes even your crashes on the M1 - because it always bounced back.
Why? because its a long term bull. Because global assets have been in bull mode with stimulus.

2) Google the empirical evidence stating day traders don't make money.

3) If that still isn't enough...
Take 100 traders over the past 100 days that bought US stocks.
Take 100 traders over the past 100 days that sold US stocks.
Can you guess who came out on top?

4) Picking tops and bottoms is fruitless for most - if you are saying run with the trend, on a trend following system page - why are you not only going long?
You make more money buying pullbacks in US stocks and that has been the case for 13 years - BTFD.

Stop telling people lies dressed up in whimsical musings pretending the facts I have written don't exist.
You are arguing with science.
Any halfwit can look at a US stock chart and see its vertical since 2008.
You BTFD in US Stocks until it really ends - global assets have been blowing since the 30% covid discount - they bounced straight back and flew up some.

Help the new guy who is long term bear, in a long term bull market understand why he is wrong and getting his arse kicked - don't bullshit people with doing the wrong thing righter with timeframes.

As I have said - even if dow loses 27000 points today - it is purely a gamble.
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Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

5245
Here is a fun tip re - White Semaphores on the 15m Xmas edition.

Trading 15m off a top Square ALL 2nd Dot White Semaphores will be the highest point until a new bottom Square has formed.

Trading 15m off a bottom Square ALL 2nd Dot White Semaphores will be the lowest point until a new top Square has formed.
Xard777

NB Please note that ALL is used as a maxim, a rule of thumb - like bleach it will work 99% of the time, but good to know none the less.
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XARD: If Carlsberg made charts... Probably the best charts in the world


Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

5246
francisfinley stimpy wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 6:35 pm

do you even convince yourself with this nonsense - "Popper.../One half down day"?

1) Google the empirical evidence stating its a waste of time shorting US stocks.
Look at the US stocks chart - it has been a waste of time shorting for 13 years - yes even your crashes on the M1 - because it always bounced back.
Why? because its a long term bull. Because global assets have been in bull mode with stimulus.

2) Google the empirical evidence stating day traders don't make money.

3) If that still isn't enough...
Take 100 traders over the past 100 days that bought US stocks.
Take 100 traders over the past 100 days that sold US stocks.
Can you guess who came out on top?

4) Picking tops and bottoms is fruitless for most - if you are saying run with the trend, on a trend following system page - why are you not only going long?
You make more money buying pullbacks in US stocks and that has been the case for 13 years - BTFD.

Stop telling people lies dressed up in whimsical musings pretending the facts I have written don't exist.
You are arguing with science.
Any halfwit can look at a US stock chart and see its vertical since 2008.
You BTFD in US Stocks until it really ends - global assets have been blowing since the 30% covid discount - they bounced straight back and flew up some.

Help the new guy who is long term bear, in a long term bull market understand why he is wrong and getting his arse kicked - don't bullshit people with doing the wrong thing righter with timeframes.

As I have said - even if dow loses 27000 points today - it is purely a gamble.
I perfectly understand what you are trying to say here. From a mathematical point of view, your words are correct. In one of his lectures, the distinguished Larry Williams (who made 10,000% in 1 year at the Robbins Cup) said that the probability of an increase in the stock market is 53%, versus 47% for a decrease. The mathematical expectation is on the side of the bulls. And yes, by buying pullbacks, the likelihood is on your side that you will win in the long run. Again, there is an important component we all need to consider - TIME. If we buy Tesla shares today, then perhaps in a week or a month we will take our profit. But in the short term, stocks look expensive, so you have to wait for a DOWN to buy them.

The traders who are on this forum do not look into the distance for weeks or even days. It is important for them what is happening now, at the moment. The probability of a short-term decline in Tesla shares exists, so Traders are waiting for a signal through the system to enter sales. I will repeat it again to make it clear. In a narrow time frame (within 1 day), the market is chaotic. You can buy, but the price will fall and the day will end in negative territory .. you can sell, but the price will go up and the day will end in negative territory again. In the long term, you can buy and hold for weeks or months and make money.
It is important to remember that the market is a living organism. He breathes. You cannot breathe in constantly. You need to exhale to capture clean air. Also, the market cannot only go up. The traders gathered here are trying to capitalize on "breathing in" and "breathing out" the market.

It is also worth mentioning that there are long-term bearish trends in the market. 2008 was a completely bearish year, where all your purchases turned out to be losses. 2018 was bearish in part and stocks were flat out. in 2020, stocks fell for 3 consecutive months. Ultimately, if you are a long-term investor, then you will win this fight. Buffett's large capitals are made on two factors - compound interest and TIME.

In conclusion .. I'm not trying to convince anyone or prove anything. Each trader has a different point of view, which is why the market is so chaotic. There are no right or wrong answers. There is only the angle at which you look at the market, and the angle at which your opponent is looking at the market. But the most important thing is what you risk. If you bought shares and can sit out the 30-50% fall calmly, then you are a competent investor and you are more likely to win in the end. If you bought a stock and a 10% drop makes you Margin Call, then you will be a failed investor. And one more thing, you are right that most day traders lose money. It is a fact. But it is also a fact that all 90% of market participants lose money. Losing money and large Hedge Funds and World Banks. This is a complex and highly competitive business. It all depends only on how you manage your money and your psychological state.
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Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

5248
maroka wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:35 am

Exact strategy is following the rules.. and knowing the system for myself..
I trade with the confirmation of the VQ indicator.. when the indicator signals buy, I check if it aligns with the second dot, if it does, I buy, if it doesnt, I dont.. no regrets even if it goes same way.. I wait for the next setup.. my only alert is the VQ indicator.. its what brings me to the chart..
Then I scrap 50 pips off each setup

P.S. its always best going through previous posts on the thread.. when I came here, I went to post 1 to see how the system has been traded. I learnt stuffs along the way thats helping me now.
Thanks for sharing.

So question for XARD, instead of using CCI for background, can we try the VQ to paint the background of a chart, that would give us easier view into taking longs when background is blue and shorts when it is red? Just curious so asking a sinple question. Thanks
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Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

5249
xard777 wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:46 pm Here is a fun tip re - White Semaphores on the 15m Xmas edition.

Trading 15m off a top Square ALL 2nd Dot White Semaphores will be the highest point until a new bottom Square has formed.

Trading 15m off a bottom Square ALL 2nd Dot White Semaphores will be the lowest point until a new top Square has formed.
Xard777

NB Please note that ALL is used as a maxim, a rule of thumb - like bleach it will work 99% of the time, but good to know none the less.
Many many thanks for what you have done for this community!

Is it possible to put alert for squares and semaphores?

Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

5250
I have some question about the dots and how to trade them best.
The dots have a degree of importance as shown below. But is that because they represent different timeframes? For example the yellow squared one is a 1 hour dot? Or is there another reason why they get different colors?

Another question is how you guys would have entered the trade after it showed a green arrow and some consolidation.

PS. I have read the pdf file with the examples. I am just wondering what you guys would consider in this situation. Thanks in advance!
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