EURUSD depressed around 4-day lows in the 1.1150/45 band

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EUR/USD depressed around 4-day lows in the 1.1150/45 band


The offered bias surrounding the single currency remains well and sound on Wednesday and is motivating EUR/USD to trade on the defensive in the mid-1.1100s.

EUR/USD looks to yields, data

Spot is navigating on the back foot since Monday and it has almost fully faded last week’s spike to fresh tops beyond 1.1200 the figure.

Shrinking yields in the German money markets are following the generalized decline in the global markets, with yields of the German 10-year reference falling to -0.18%, area last visited in July 2016.

In addition, the German labour market figures showed the jobless rate ticked higher to 5.0% in May and the Unemployment Change increased more than expected by 60K during the same period. These poor prints add to the June’s drop in the Business Climate tracked by GfK seen earlier in the week.

What to look for around EUR

Recent data releases in Euroland and Germany have poured cold water over the idea that some healing process could be under way in the region, re-shifting the focus to the ongoing slowdown and its probable duration and extension. This view has been reinforced in recent ECB minutes, where the Council appeared unconvinced about a pick up in the economic activity in H2 2019. That said, the current ‘neutral/dovish’ stance from the ECB is expected to persist for the remainder of the year and probable through H1 2020. The broad-based risk-appetite trends and USD-dynamics should dictate the sentiment surrounding the European currency for the time being, all in combination with the now stalled US-China negotiations and potential US tariffs on EU products. On the political front, Italian politics has resurfaced as a source of uncertainty and volatility, all gyrating around the country’s discomfort with EU fiscal rules.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.05% at 1.1154 and faces immediate contention at 1.1142 (low May 21) seconded by 1.1107 (2019 low May 23) and finally 1.0905 (high Mar.27 2017). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1215 (high May 27) would target 1.1230 (55-day SMA) en route to 1.1264 (monthly high May 1).


Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-d ... 1905291200 (Article)
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EURUSD – Euro steady as German, eurozone manufacturing PMIs match forecasts

474
EUR/USD – Euro steady as German, eurozone manufacturing PMIs match forecasts

EUR/USD has started the week with slight gains. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1185, up 0.15% on the day. On the release front, German manufacturing PMI ticked lower to 44.3, down from 44.4. The Eurozone indicator dropped from 47.9 to 47.7. Both scores matched the estimates. In the U.S., ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 53.0, up from 52.8 in the previous release.

Weak global demand has taken a toll on German and eurozone manufacturing. In Germany, manufacturing PMIs have hovered below the 50-level for five months, while the eurozone indicator has been below 50 for four months. This points to persistent contraction in the manufacturing sector. The trade war between the U.S. and China has dampened demand for German cars, which has hurt the massive German car industry. Unless the U.S.-China trade war shows signs of being resolved, the weak manufacturing sectors is likely to continue.

The U.S. economy continues to perform well, with first-quarter growth above the 3% level. Second estimate GDP posted a gain of 3.1%, matching the estimate. This was just shy of the initial estimate in April, which came in at 3.1%. The U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders, despite the nasty trade war with China, which has escalated in recent weeks. U.S. officials, including President Trump, had announced that substantial progress had been made, and it seemed that a trade deal was just around the corner. However, Trump shocked the markets by slapping further tariffs on China, which led to counter-tariffs against U.S. products. China has reacted angrily to U.S. trade sanctions on Huawei, a giant Chinese telecom company. The euro has managed to weather the latest crisis in the U.S.-China trade war, but if there is no improvement, investors could opt for the safety of the greenback, at the expense of the euro.


Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-u ... 1906031123
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EURUSD has room to run all the way to 1.1370

476
EUR/USD has room to run all the way to 1.1370 after breaking higher – Confluence Detector


EUR/USD has emerged from the lows as the greenback fell in response to falling US treasuries. Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates? In the meantime, the charts show it has more room to run.

The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that clusters of support are more significant than resistance ones. Looking up, the first resistance area is at 1.1271 where we see the previous monthly high and the Pivot Point one-week Resistance 2 converge.

Further up, the next cap is at 1.1323 where the Pivot Point one-day Resistance 2 meets the PP 1w-R3.

Next up, the last noteworthy cap is at 1.1370 where the all-important Fibonacci 161.8% one-month awaits.

Looking down, considerable support awaits at 1.1224 where a confluence of strong lines awaits the pair: this includes the previous weekly high, the PP 1w-R1, the Bollinger Band 1h-Middle, the Simple Moving Average 100-15m, and the previous yearly low.

Further down, the currency pair enjoys several cushions on the way down with the most significant one waiting at 1.1171 where the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month and the Bollinger Band 4h-Middle converge.

Here is how it looks on the tool:
Confluence Detector

The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies.

This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas.

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-u ... 1906040434 (Article)
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EURUSD flirting with daily highs near 1.1270, data on sight

477
EUR/USD flirting with daily highs near 1.1270, data on sight


  • EUR/USD stays close to the 100-day SMA at 1.1275.
  • The greenback remains under pressure on rate cut chatter.
  • Final services PMIs, Producer Prices, Retail Sales next on tap.

The bid tone around the European currency is once again pushing EUR/USD to the top end of the recent range around 1.1270, where coincides the 100-day SMA.

EUR/USD propped by USD-selling, looks to data

The pair is navigating its fourth consecutive session with gains so far on Wednesday, always bolstered by the persistent selling pressure around the greenback as the almost exclusive catalyst for the up move.

In fact, market chatter highlighting the possibility of a Fed move on rates – most likely to the downside – in the medium term has put the buck under renewed downside pressure. This idea has been somewhat reinforced by Chief J.Powell at his speech yesterday.

In today’s calendar, final services PMIs in Euroland for the month of May are unlikely to move the dial in the markets, although investors would be more interested in the publication of Producer Prices during last month and the performance of Retail Sales in April.

Across the pond, an initial gauge of the US labour market is due via the ADP report seconded by the ISM Non-manufacturing and speeches by FOMC’s Clarida, Bowman and Bostic.

What to look for around EUR

Lower-than-expected preliminary inflation figures in Euroland, albeit anticipated, showed the absence of conviction in the previous up tick in consumer prices and opens the door at the same time for a potential dovish tilt at the ECB event on Thursday. On the broader picture, the broad-based risk-appetite trends and USD-dynamics should dictate the sentiment surrounding the European currency for the time being, all in combination with developments from the trade front including the US, China, the EU and Mexico. On the political front, Italian politics has resurfaced as a source of uncertainty and volatility, with the centre of the debate on the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is advancing 0.14% at 1.1267 and a breakout of 1.1277 (high Jun.4) would target 1.1283 (38.2% Fibo of the 2019 drop) en route to 1.1323 (high Apr.13). On the other hand, the next down barrier lines up at 1.1217 (55-day SMA) followed by 1.1190 (21-day SMA) and finally 1.1116 (low May 30).

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-f ... 1906050639 (Article)
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Re: EURUSD flirting with daily highs near 1.1270, data on sight

478
ChuChu Rocket wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:12 pm EUR/USD flirting with daily highs near 1.1270, data on sight


EURUSD-Support-Resistance-June-5-2019.png


  • EUR/USD stays close to the 100-day SMA at 1.1275.
  • The greenback remains under pressure on rate cut chatter.
  • Final services PMIs, Producer Prices, Retail Sales next on tap.

The bid tone around the European currency is once again pushing EUR/USD to the top end of the recent range around 1.1270, where coincides the 100-day SMA.

EUR/USD propped by USD-selling, looks to data

The pair is navigating its fourth consecutive session with gains so far on Wednesday, always bolstered by the persistent selling pressure around the greenback as the almost exclusive catalyst for the up move.

In fact, market chatter highlighting the possibility of a Fed move on rates – most likely to the downside – in the medium term has put the buck under renewed downside pressure. This idea has been somewhat reinforced by Chief J.Powell at his speech yesterday.

In today’s calendar, final services PMIs in Euroland for the month of May are unlikely to move the dial in the markets, although investors would be more interested in the publication of Producer Prices during last month and the performance of Retail Sales in April.

Across the pond, an initial gauge of the US labour market is due via the ADP report seconded by the ISM Non-manufacturing and speeches by FOMC’s Clarida, Bowman and Bostic.

What to look for around EUR

Lower-than-expected preliminary inflation figures in Euroland, albeit anticipated, showed the absence of conviction in the previous up tick in consumer prices and opens the door at the same time for a potential dovish tilt at the ECB event on Thursday. On the broader picture, the broad-based risk-appetite trends and USD-dynamics should dictate the sentiment surrounding the European currency for the time being, all in combination with developments from the trade front including the US, China, the EU and Mexico. On the political front, Italian politics has resurfaced as a source of uncertainty and volatility, with the centre of the debate on the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is advancing 0.14% at 1.1267 and a breakout of 1.1277 (high Jun.4) would target 1.1283 (38.2% Fibo of the 2019 drop) en route to 1.1323 (high Apr.13). On the other hand, the next down barrier lines up at 1.1217 (55-day SMA) followed by 1.1190 (21-day SMA) and finally 1.1116 (low May 30).

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-f ... 1906050639 (Article)



Needs more selloff of USD for EUR strength, may be ECB can provide trigger for its gain.
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EURUSD: Bullish breakout invalidated ahead of the ECB

479
rijay wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:22 pm
Needs more selloff of USD for EUR strength, may be ECB can provide trigger for its gain.
Agreed.

EUR/USD: Bullish breakout invalidated ahead of the ECB


  • EUR/USD charted a bearish engulfing candle on Wednesday, invalidating Monday’s bullish breakout.
  • The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged.
  • The focus is on ECB’s forward guidance on interest rates and TLTRO 3

EUR/USD is lacking clear directional bias ahead of the all-important European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision, due today at 11:45 GMT.

The currency pair witnessed a descending triangle breakout on Monday. The bearish-to-bullish trend change, however, was short-lived with the pair forming a bearish engulfing candle on Wednesday.

Hence, the immediate outlook is neutral. A break below 1.1220 would validate the bearish engulfing candle and open the doors to retest of recent lows near 1.11. On the higher side, a daily close above the 100-day MA, currently at 1.1273, is needed to revive the bullish outlook.

As of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1230, representing little change on the day.

Focus on the ECB

ECB Preview: Three things that may tilt EUR/USD to the downside
The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep key policy tools unchanged.

The central bank has little room to sound hawkish, courtesy of escalating trade tensions, resulting fears of recession, slowdown in Germany and lingering Brexit uncertainty,

That said, the German economic slowdown and the anemic consumer spending across Eurozone is generally accepted by now and may have been priced in by markets.

So, potential downward revision of the inflation and growth forecasts and dovish comments by ECB’s Draghi may have little impact on the EUR.

However, the shared currency may take a hit and settle below 1.1220 if the ECB pushes out rate hike plans to the spring or summer of 2020. Also, a bigger-than-expected downward revision of inflation forecasts and the talk of new loans programs beyond TLTRO, if any, could also influence the EUR pairs.

The shared currency may drop below the key support at 1.1220 ahead of the ECB if Eurozone’s first quarter gross domestic product and jobs data for the first quarter, due at 09:00 GMT, disappoints expectations.


Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-b ... 1906060354 (Article)
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EURUSD close to daily lows near 1.1260

480
EURUSD close to daily lows near 1.1260


  • EUR/USD loses some shine after testing 1.1300 and above.
  • German Industrial Production contracted 1.9% MoM in April.
  • US Non-farm Payrolls next of significance in the calendar.

The shared currency is now giving away part of its weekly gains and is prompting EUR/USD to recede some ground and test so far daily lows in the 1.1265/60 band.

EUR/USD looks to data

After testing fresh 2-month peaks above 1.1300 the figure in past sessions, the pair has sparked a correction lower to the current comfort-zone around 1.1260 on Friday.

As usual this week, USD-weakness was exclusively behind the recovery in spot amidst speculations of a Fed’s rate cut and rising trade tensions, while the ECB event lent extra wings to the European currency after its tone disappointed bears on Thursday.

In the calendar, German Industrial Production contracted at a monthly 1.9% during April, missing previous estimates, while trade surplus shrunk to €17.0 billion during the same period. Moving forward, French trade balance figures are also due seconded by Italian Retail Sales.

Across the pond, US Non-farm Payrolls will be on top of the agenda later in the day (185K exp.).

What to look for around EUR

The ECB did not sounded as dovish as expected yesterday despite revising slightly lower its forecasts for inflation and economic growth in the region for the next years and after members discussed restarting QE or event cutting rates at the meeting. So, rates are expected to remain at current levels at least through H1 2020, although the ECB convincing optimism on an eventual pick up in inflation figures and the economic activity appeared to remove some bearishness surrounding the shared currency. On the broader picture, the broad-based risk-appetite trends and USD-dynamics should dictate the sentiment surrounding the European currency for the time being, all in combination with developments from the trade front including the US, China, the EU and Mexico. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility, with the centre of the debate on the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.11% at 1.1267 facing the next support at 1.1214 (55-day SMA) followed by 1.1194 (21-day SMA) and finally 1.1116 (low May 30). On the other hand, a breakout of 1.1309 (high Jun.6) would target 1.1323 (high Apr.13) en route to 1.1343 (200-week SMA).


Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-f ... 1906070619 (Article)
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