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EUR/USD

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EURUSD tests 200 hour MA & 50% retracement

#441
EURUSD tests 200 hour MA, trend line and 50% retracement

Dollar heading back lower
Gundlach did say, he sees a lower dollar ahead....

2018-12-17_11-09-45.jpg

The dollar is moving back lower vs the EURUSD (new highs for the pair), the USDJPY (new lows for the pair). The USDCHF corrected higher to the 100 hour MA, but turned back lower and trades toward the day lows again.

For the EURUSD, the pair is up testing a key area defined by the:
  • 200 hour MA
  • 50% retracement, and
  • Downward sloping trend line

All come in at the 1.1355-57 area. The high just reached 1.13569.

When you have a bunch of technical levels at a confined area, it is a key barometer for bulls and bears. There will be sellers who lean against the area with hopes that resistance holds. However, if the price moves above, those sellers could easily turn around and buy. That's the importance of the technical area.

So, although the dollar is lower, sellers of the EURUSD may look to stick a small toe in the water with a close stop against the USD low level vs the EUR.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... t-20181217
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EURUSD Forecast: Rises with the Italian relief but the doves may still cry

#442
EUR/USD Forecast: Rises with the Italian relief

  • EUR/USD extends its gains on news that Italy will not be punished.
  • Hopes for a dovish Fed hike also help.
    The technical picture has turned positive for the pair.

EUR/USD is rising above 1.1400, setting the highest levels in a week. It is uncommon to see significant moves ahead of the Fed decision, but this time is different.

The Euro enjoys a substantial development. Italy's Radiocor reports that the European Commission will not open a disciplinary procedure against Italy. The latest budget from the euro zone's third-largest economy already consisted of significant concessions towards Brussels. EU Commissioner DescriptionValdis Dombrovskis confirmed an agreement has been reached to avoid an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP).

The issue has weighed on the common currency for a long time and now allows it to move higher. The spread between Italian 10-year bonds and the benchmark German ones fell below 260 basis points, indicating an acknowledgment by the markets.

The second reason to rise is more speculative and may be premature. Markets seem to believe that the Fed will deliver a "dovish hike." While Chair Jerome Powell and co. will raise rates but slash the forecast for three increases in 2019. The expectations are based on an economic slowdown but may have gone too far.

Back in September, the Fed's dot-lot showed three hikes and bond markets point to no changes next year. The low expectations weigh on the USD Dollar. The outcome may be something in the middle. A small downgrade to two hikes in 2019 could make the doves cry and send the greenback much higher. A cut to one hike would already be a genuine dovish hike.

The reaction also depends on the accompanying FOMC Statement and Powell's press conference.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-u ... neric-news
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EURUSD hits weekly highs near ahead of Fed’s decision

#443
EUR/USD hits weekly highs near 1.1450 ahead of Fed’s decision

  • EUR/USD extends gains and reaches the highest level since December 10.
  • While the US dollar is moving mixed across the board, the euro remains strong on the back of the Italian budget agreement.


The EUR/USD pair rose further and climbed to 1.1438, hitting a fresh weekly high. It is trading near the top with the bullish tone intact but still under the key resistance seen around 1.1445/50.

The move to the upside took place as market participants await the outcome of the 2-day FOMC meeting. A rate hike is priced in, but lately, speculations about a “dovish” tone from the Fed weakened the demand for the US dollar. The statement will be released at 19:00 GMT.

Analysts at ING, also expect a rate hike today and they point out the economy is booming, inflation is at or above the 2% target and the jobs market is finally generating wage pressures. However, they warn that the outlook for policy in 2019 is more uncertain. “Back in September the Federal Reserve ‘dot diagram’, which shows the individual predictions of FOMC members, pointed to a median expectation of three 25bp rate rises next year with a further 25bp hike in 2020. Market participants are increasingly sceptical of this with Fed funds futures contracts no longer even fully pricing in one hike in 2019.”

The euro is among the top performers today, supported by the possible agreement between the Italian government and the European Commission that triggered a rally in Italian bonds. While EUR/USD is up almost more than 50 pips, EUR/CHF trades at 2-week highs near 1.1350 and EUR/GBP above 0.9030 at the highest since December 12.

EUR/USD Levels to watch
To the upside, the critical resistance level is seen at 1.1445/50, followed by 1.1470/75 (Nov 20 high) and 1.1495/1.1500 (Nov 7 high). On the flip side, support might now be seen at 1.1400, 1.1355/60 (Dec 17 high) and 1.1330 (Dec 13 low).

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-h ... 1812191618?
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EURUSD rallies to 1-month tops, nearing 1.1500 handle amid notable USD supply

#444
EUR/USD rallies to 1-month tops, nearing 1.1500 handle amid notable USD supply

  • The post-FOMC USD rebound meets with some aggressive selling on Thursday.
  • Technical buying above 55-day SMA/1.1400 handles accelerates the up-move.

The USD remained heavily offered across the board, pushing the EUR/USD pair to over one-month tops and closer to the key 1.1500 psychological mark.

The not so dovish Fed monetary policy outlook for 2019, now foreseeing two rate hikes, led to a rise in short-term interest rates. This coupled with a fall in the long-dated yields revived fears of an inversion in the yield curve, seen as a reliable indicator of a recession down the road, and was seen affecting negatively on the US Dollar.

The pair regained positive traction for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday and continued scaling higher through the mid-European session. Meanwhile, the latest leg of a sudden pickup over the past few hours could further be attributed to some short-covering move, following a sustained move beyond the previous session's swing high.

With today's strong up-move, the pair finally seems to have confirmed a near-term bullish breakthrough the crucial 55-day SMA hurdle. Hence, a follow-through up-move, led by some fresh technical selling amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US, now looks a distinct possibility.

Technical levels to watch

On a sustained move beyond the 1.1500 handle, the pair is likely to head towards the 1.1525-30 supply zone and pause amid overbought conditions on hourly charts. On the flip side, the 1.1440-35 region now becomes immediate support to defend, which if broken might drag the pair back towards testing the 1.1400 handle.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-r ... 1812201138
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Re: EUR/USD

#445
It found some resistance at 1.1485, let's see whether this is the end of the rally or we can expect more.


EURUSD rangebound below 1.1450 ahead of New Year's shutdown

#446
EUR/USD rangebound below 1.1450 ahead of New Year's shutdown

  • Major markets are missing their key participants as volumes wither, leaving the FX marketspace to middle.
  • Plenty of concerns will be following investors through the doors into 2019.

EUR/USD is seeing some downside play in thin Asian markets, testing into 1.1425 as the major pair struggles within trading ranges established late last week.

Broader markets remain sedate and volumes steeply decreased as investors pull back for the year's end, and major assets see thin play within recent ranges. The Euro is heading into 2019 on mixed tones as the European continent grapples with an array of economic headwinds, from Italy's lagging budget concerns to Brexit, as well as threats of a global economic slowdown, and soured market sentiment could be ringing in 2019 as the new year looks set for a rough ride.

The economic calendar is devoid of any meaningful information ahead of the News Years shutdown, though the US side will be seeing the Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Business Index for December at 15:30 GMT, which last printed at 17.6.

EUR/USD Levels to watch

The Fiber's technical outlook remains largely unchanged, and as FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik noted:

"The pair retains a positive tone according to the 4 hours chart, although the 1.1460/80 region is a tough static resistance area that won't be easy to break. In the mentioned chart, the pair is well above its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining upward strength. Technical indicators are neutral-to-bullish within positive levels, below their daily highs, indicating limited buying interest. "

Support levels: 1.1420 1.1390 1.1360
Resistance levels: 1.1480 1.1510 1.1545

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-r ... 1812310508
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Re: EUR/USD

#447
I really hope the holiday range ends soon, I am ready to start trading again.

Re: EUR/USD

#449
flash crash, nfp and powell very good mixture to raise implied volatality of forex pairs.

Re: EUR/USD

#450
What caused the flash crash actually? What did I miss?




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