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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Falling wedge breakout

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Teasing falling wedge breakout

The EUR/USD is attempting a break above the upper edge of the falling wedge at a time when the treasury yields are looking toppy. The wedge breakout, if confirmed, would confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change.

Daily Chart
EUR_USD (43)-636779433442484869.png
  • As can be seen, the pair is chipping away the wedge hurdle of 1.1338. A daily close above that level would confirm a breakout - the sell-off from the September high of 1.1815 has ended and the bulls have regained control.
  • The move, if backed by a double bottom bearish reversal in the US 10-year treasury yield, could yield a stronger rally toward 1.1586 (61.8% Fib R of Sept/Nov drop).

Weekly Chart
EUR_USD (44)-636779434843770700.png
  • The falling wedge breakout, if confirmed in the daily, would validate the pair's quick recovery from below 200-week MA of 1.1308. Watch how a similar looking weekly candle in August was followed by a rally to highs above 1.18.
  • A convincing close below the 200-week MA today would be bad news for the Euro bulls.

Last Price: 1.1339
Daily change: 7.0 pips
Daily change: 0.0618%
Daily Open: 1.1332

Daily SMA20: 1.1379
Daily SMA50: 1.1515
Daily SMA100: 1.1566
Daily SMA200: 1.1819

Daily High: 1.1363
Daily Low: 1.1271
Weekly High: 1.15
Weekly Low: 1.1316
Monthly High: 1.1625
Monthly Low: 1.1302
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1328
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1306
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1281
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.123
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1189
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1373
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1414
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1466

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-t ... 1811160539
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EUR/USD charts bearish outside-day as Italy-German yield differential hits 5.5-year high

EUR/USD charts bearish outside-day as Italy-German yield differential hits 5.5-year high

  • The EUR/USD created a bearish outside-day yesterday, signaling the recovery rally has likely ended.
  • The Italy-German yield differential hit 5.5-year high, reflecting rising concerns over Italy's budget.
  • The EUR could drop sharply if the European Union takes Italy to task over the budget deficit.
The EUR/USD is on the defensive ahead of the European Union's official response to Italy’s draft budget.

The common currency charted a bearish outside-day candle yesterday, signaling the recovery rally from the recent low of 1.1215 likely ended at the high of 1.1472 yesterday.

The sell-off was likely triggered by the rise in Italian sovereign yields. Notably, the spread between the 10-year Italian government bond yield and its German counterpart rose to 327 basis points yesterday - the highest level since April 4, 2013.

The fresh multi-year highs on the Italy-German yield spread reflects rising concerns that the European Union may launch disciplinary procedures against Italy in response to that country's refusal to respect EU financial rules. As a result, the EUR is likely to remain on the back foot ahead of the EU's response (due today).

More importantly, the Italy-German yield differential will likely rise further in the EUR-negative manner if the EU takes Italy to task over the budget issue.

The yield differential, however, may drop sharply, lifting the EUR back above the yesterday's high of 1.1472 if the EU softens its stance.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

Last Price: 1.1373
Daily change: 4.0 pips
Daily change: 0.0352%
Daily Open: 1.1369

Daily SMA20: 1.1368
Daily SMA50: 1.1504
Daily SMA100: 1.1558
Daily SMA200: 1.1806

Daily High: 1.1473
Daily Low: 1.1358
Weekly High: 1.142
Weekly Low: 1.1216
Monthly High: 1.1625
Monthly Low: 1.1302
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1402
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1429
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1327
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1284
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1211
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1442
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1515
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1558
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: The pair remains bid near 1.1400

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: The pair remains bid near 1.1400. Upside capped around 1.1460/70

  • Spot is advancing for the second session in a row today, adding to Wednesday’s gains and managing well to keep the trade around 1.1400 the figure for the time being.
  • Tuesday’s bearish ‘outside day’ still remains in play, although the pair needs to regain recent tops around 1.1470 and above to allow for a re-test of the 1.1500 neighbourhood.
  • On the downside, the 1.1369/52 band should offer initial support, where converge weekly lows and the 21-, 10-day SMAs.

EUR/USD daily chart
EURUSD_DAILY.png (12.11 KiB) Viewed 229 times

Last Price: 1.1402
Daily change: 19 pips
Daily change: 0.167%
Daily Open: 1.1383

Daily SMA20: 1.1368
Daily SMA50: 1.1499
Daily SMA100: 1.1555
Daily SMA200: 1.1802

Daily High: 1.1426
Daily Low: 1.1364
Weekly High: 1.142
Weekly Low: 1.1216
Monthly High: 1.1625
Monthly Low: 1.1302
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1402
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1387
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1356
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1329
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1294
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1418
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1453
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.148

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-t ... 1811220900
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

EUR/USD sticks to daily gains despite weaker data

EUR/USD sticks to daily gains despite weaker data, easing Italian budgetary concerns remain supportive

  • Italian government reportedly discussing to lower 2019 budget deficit target.
  • Narrowing Italian-German bond yield spread underpinning the shared currency.
  • Weaker German Ifo business survey fails to dampen the prevalent positive tone.

The EUR/USD pair built on its goodish intraday rebound and recovered over 50-pips from over one-week lows touched earlier today.

The shared currency picked up the pace at the start of a new trading week and was supported by reports that Italy's government was looking to discuss a lower 2019 budget deficit target to 2-2.1% of GDP.

Comments by Italy's Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Salvini further reinforced the news and the latest optimism was evident from narrowing Italian-German bond yields, which fell below 280 basis points - the lowest level since October 8th and provided a minor boost to the common currency.

Meanwhile, the positive tone seemed rather unaffected by a larger than expected fall in German Ifo business climate index, coming in at 102.00 for November, as compared to 102.8 previous and consensus estimates pointing to a reading of 102.3.

Technical levels to watch

Any subsequent up-move might continue to confront some fresh supply near the 1.1425-30 zone, above which the pair is likely to surpass an intermediate hurdle near mid-1.1400 and aim towards testing 100-day SMA, around the 1.1480 region.

On the flip side, the 1.1350 level now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might turn the pair vulnerable to break below the 1.1325 intermediate support and head towards challenging the key 1.1300 strong horizontal level.
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

EUR/USD falls to session low as downside momentum extends further

EUR/USD falls to session low as downside momentum extends further

The euro is down by 200 pips against the dollar since last Tuesday

Talks of auto tariffs overnight - although later denied - were enough to spark worries that saw the 1.1300 handle being tested and in quick succession we've seen price fall from the figure level to a low of 1.1268 on the day now.

The near-term chart continues to show a more bearish bias after price failed to break above the key hourly moving averages on Monday and since then, the decline has continued. Although Italian bonds are taking the early morning headlines in stride, euro traders aren't convinced that there's a resolution to come as it would seem.

Looking at the technical picture, price is now falling back below the 76.4 retracement level @ 1.1276 with minor resistance seen at 1.1263 and 1.1253. However, unless Powell casts a dark cloud over the dollar later today, the downside momentum looks towards heading back to the year's low @ 1.1216 at this point.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... r-20181128
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

EUR/USD: Bull gaining strength ahead of Trump-Xi meeting

EUR/USD: Bull gaining strength ahead of Trump-Xi meeting

  • EUR/USD is again looking north, according to technical charts.
  • Two-year US-German yield differential hit lowest since Oct. 1, adding credence to bullish technicals.
  • A better-than-expected Eurozone CPI and a surprise US-China trade deal would bode well for the euro and risky assets.

The EUR/USD closed well above 1.1388 yesterday, validating Wednesday's bullish outside-day candle.

The bullish reversal seen in the daily chart is backed by a decline in the yield differential in the EUR positive manner. For instance, the two-year spread between the US and German government bond yields fell to 238 points yesterday - the lowest level since Oct. 1 – having topped out at 358 basis points on Nov. 8.

Therefore, the stage looks set for a re-test of the Nov. 20 high of 1.1472.

Notably, the odds of a rally to 1.1472 would rise sharply if the Eurozone's preliminary consumer price index (CPI) for November, scheduled for release at 10:00 GMT today, blows past estimates, bolstering the possibility of an early ECB rate hike.

The common currency, however, may run into offers in the Asian session on Monday if the weekend's Trump-Xi meeting fails to produce at the very least a pause in the trade dispute.

The recent high of 1.1472 could be scaled next week if the meeting between the US President Trump and China's Xi ends on a positive note.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

Today Last Price: 1.1393
Today Daily change: 3.0 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.0263%
Today Daily Open: 1.139

Previous Daily SMA20: 1.1364
Previous Daily SMA50: 1.146
Previous Daily SMA100: 1.1534
Previous Daily SMA200: 1.177

Previous Daily High: 1.1402
Previous Daily Low: 1.1348
Previous Weekly High: 1.1473
Previous Weekly Low: 1.1328
Previous Monthly High: 1.1625
Previous Monthly Low: 1.1302
Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1382
Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1369
Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1358
Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1326
Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1304
Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1412
Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1434
Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1466

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-b ... 1811300448
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

EURUSD corrects to the MA and midpoint area

EURUSD corrects to the MA and midpoint area

The ups and downs continue
The EURUSD has moved back toward the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.1368, 1.1363 and the 50% of the move up from the November 28th low at 1.13541. The low for the day reached 1.13557. We currently trade at 1.1364.


There have been a lot of ups and downs of late for the pair. The highs today actually took out swing highs in the 1.1418-24 area. That break failed and the price started to come back lower. Now with the price near the MAs and the midpoint of the recent up and down range, it is time for a pause. If the price can build value above 1.1375, I wouldn't be surprised to see sellers turn to buyers and the 1.1400 eyed. If the 1.1375-80 area cannot be breached, the lows may not be in place.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... a-20181210
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

EURUSD clings to intraday gains, approaching 1.1400

EUR/USD clings to intraday gains, approaching 1.1400 handle post-German ZEW

  • Stalls overnight retracement slide and regains positive traction amid renewed USD selling.
  • German ZEW economic sentiment unexpectedly improves and provides an additional boost.

The EUR/USD pair built on its steady intraday climb and recovered a major part of the overnight sharp retracement slide from near three-week tops.

Despite a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, the US Dollar struggled to build on overnight goodish up-move, led by the latest Brexit drama-led sell-off in the British Pound, and helped the pair to regain positive traction on Tuesday.

The shared currency was further supported by reports that Italy was pushing for deficit target of 2.0% to reach an agreement with the EU, though the optimism was partly offset by concerns over the economic impact of violent protests in France.

Meanwhile, today's mixed German ZEW economic survey results failed to provide any meaningful impetus but remained supportive of the ongoing positive momentum, with bulls now eyeing to reclaim the 1.1400 handle.

Moving ahead, today's US economic docket, featuring the release of Nov. PPI figures, will now be looked upon for some fresh impetus later during the early North-American session.

Technical levels to watch
On a sustained move beyond the 1.1400-1.1410 immediate resistance, the pair is likely to aim towards reclaiming the key 1.1500 psychological mark with some intermediate hurdle near the 1.1455-60 region. On the flip side, the 1.1355-50 region might continue to protect the immediate downside, which if broken is likely to accelerate the fall back towards challenging the 1.1300 round figure mark.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-c ... 1812111013
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

EURUSD buyers look to retain near-term control ahead of ECB decision

EUR/USD buyers look to retain near-term control ahead of ECB decision, Draghi

Price currently leans on support from the 100-hour moving average

EUR/USD was trading steadily around 1.1380 levels before the headline here briefly brought it lower to 1.1367. But price is finding some support at the lows for the day as buyers are leaning on the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 1.1371 to keep up the near-term bullish bias in the pair.

There's also additional support from the 200-hour MA (blue line) @ 1.1364 for any secondary line of defense for buyers ahead of the ECB decision and Draghi's presser later. Price should remain contained around current levels as markets await the next move by the ECB.

The downgrade in both the growth and inflation forecasts are very much expected at this juncture but the important thing to look out for here is if those downgrades start to impact the central bank's assessment for rate hike conditions or their risks outlook.

As long as the ECB and Draghi maintain that they will keep rates on hold "through the summer of 2019" and that risk are still "broadly balanced", that will be enough to keep markets satisfied and prevent any strong decline in the euro later today.

As for EUR/USD, price action remains a bit of a dull one over the past two weeks with lows reaching just above 1.1300 and highs limited by the 1.1450 level but for the most part it's been ping pong between 1.1300 and 1.1400.

Traders will be hoping for the ECB to offer something new to break this range but given that their confident message later today as they end QE will be balanced out by the downward revisions to growth and inflation outlooks, the net reaction later on may very well be neutral and the current trading range could persist ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... i-20181213
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

Draghi over. EURUSD price action was down and up again

Draghi over. EURUSD price action was down and up again

It can't be easy.
Draghi started more dovish with risks to the downside and lower GDP and inflation projections. That sent the EURUSD away from the 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green line) and out of the confined range seen over the last 24 hours.


The price lower randomly bottomed at 1.1338 and shorts covered. You can chalk it up to weak hands or low liquidity. Either way, the price shot back up to the 100 hour MA at 1.13689. I guess it is only 30 pips but when the price action is 55 pips, that is a big percentage. Good for the sellers/bears, the price did stall at the MA level.

SInce ending the price has moved back lower and the pair is back at that random low at 1.1338. Better support comes in at 1.1321 and then 1.1304-10 where there are a number of swing lows in that area going back to November 30th.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... n-20181213
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

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