Re: EUR/USD

381
rijay wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:04 am

the real reason why EURUSD is not falling like rock is it is trading at multiyear trendline support and taking support at it. it needs more economical slowdown in eurozone to break it.

though on flip side USDINDEX has broken this multiyear down trend line and is trading above it for a while now showing strength.
It hadn't occurred to me to draw that trendline, thank you for pointing it out!


Re: EUR/USD

382
EUR/USD formed both a hammer and an inverted hammer candlestick at the support at 1.1270 on the weekly time-frame, together with the double bottom and the trend line I think we'll be seeing a new move north soon.

LikeEURUSD: Inching higher in its range

383
mlawson71 wrote: Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:05 am EUR/USD formed both a hammer and an inverted hammer candlestick at the support at 1.1270 on the weekly time-frame, together with the double bottom and the trend line I think we'll be seeing a new move north soon.
Yes! Spot on :clap:

EUR/USD: Inching higher in its range - Commerzbank


Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the EUR/USD pair is very, very slowly inching higher in its range and they are looking for it to remain under pinned by the 1.1216 November low but it is currently stalled at the 55 and 100 day moving averages at 1.1386/91.

Key Quotes

“Our attention remains on the 1.1511 200 day ma. It is again expected to creep higher this week. Above the 200 day ma will re-target the 1.1623 mid-October high and slightly longer term we look for gains to 1.1685, the 55 week ma.”

Long term trend (1-3 months): A rise above the recent high at 1.1623 would confirm a trend reversal and put the 55 week moving average at 1.1723 back on the cards.”

Source: https://forex-station.com (chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-i ... 1902260618 (article)
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DislikeEURUSD's fall continues. Cracks below the 100 hour MA

384
EURUSD's fall continues. Cracks below the 100 hour MA

The EURUSD fall has continued following the GDP data today. Also it is month end, as a result, there may be additional flows into the London fix.


Month end. so flows may heat up in the next hour

The pair fell back below the 100 day MA earlier, traded around the level, and is now making a run below the 100 hour MA (and trend line) in the 1.1366-68 area). On more downside, the 1.1348 is home to the 38.2% of the move up from the February 15 low, and the 200 hour MA (green line).

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... a-20190228
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IdeaEURUSD Forecast: Lack of momentum likely to continue

386
EUR/USD Forecast March 4-8 – Lack of momentum likely to continue

EUR/USD posted slight gains last week. The key events in the upcoming week are the ECB rate decision and Services PMIs. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

German retail sales were unexpectedly strong, with a gain of 3.3%. Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate came in 1.5%, as inflation levels remain well below the ECB target of 2.0%. The manufacturing sector is struggling ,as eurozone and German manufacturing PMIs came in below the 50-level, pointing to contraction.

In the U.S., Advance GDP, which was released a month late due to the government slowdown, showed a gain of 2.6% in Q4. Although this was weaker than the 3.4% gain in Q3, it was well above the estimate of 2.2%. The better than expected reading can be credited to strong consumer spending and business investment. The U.S. economy continues to perform well, with a strong expansion of 3.1% in 2018. Even with the strong GDP release, however, it’s unlikely that the Federal Reserve will veer from its dovish stance.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines
  1. Spanish Unemployment Change: Monday, 8:00. The fourth-largest economy still suffers from a high level of unemployment. The January score was particularly weak, with a reading of 83.5 thousand. The indicator is expected to drop sharply to 5.0 thousand in February.
  2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. This broad survey of 2,800 investors and analysts is pointing to persistent pessimism, with three straight declines. Another decline is expected in March, with an estimate of -3.1 points.
  3. Services PMI’s: Wednesday, 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, final French figure at 8:50, final German one at 8:55, and final euro-zone number at 9:00. Germany and the eurozone PMIs are pointing to expansion, with February scores above 50. However, there are concerns over Italian and French data, as the PMIs were in contraction territory.
  4. Eurozone Retail Sales: Wednesday, 10:00. Retail sales were soft in December, with a decline of 1.6%. This marked a 4-month low. Will w see a rebound in the January release?
  5. Eurozone GDP: Friday, 10:00. GDP for Q4 posted a small gain of 0.2% in the second estimate, and the forecast for the third estimate remains at 0.2%. The slowdown in Germany and the eurozone shows no signs of abating, so GDP numbers are likely to remain weak.
  6. ECB rate decision: Thursday: decision at 12:45, press conference at 13:30. The European Central Bank is expected to maintain rates at a flat 0.00%, where rates have been pegged since January 2016. Investors will be looking for clues regarding future rate policy.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.1712 was a low point in November 2017. The next line is 1.1669.

1.1620 has held in resistance since the start of October.

1.1570 is next.

1.1515 was a high point at the end of January. 1.1435 was a low point at the beginning of February.

1.1390 was a stepping stone on the way up in late January and capped EUR/USD earlier. 1.1345 was a swing low in mid-January.

1.1290 was a low point around the same period of time. 1.1270 was a double-bottom in December 2018 and the 2018 low of 1.1215 is next. This is followed by 1.1119.

1.1046 is the final support level for now.

I remain neutral on EUR/USD

With the global trade war weighing on the eurozone and Germany, economic indicators remain lukewarm. The ECB is likely to maintain current monetary policy, with no rate hikes on the horizon. With the Fed unlikely to raise interest rates in the first half of the year, investors are not feeling committed to the U.S dollar, especially as risk appetite has improved lately.

Source: https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-for ... -continue/
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EURUSD trades to new session lows

387
EURUSD trades to new session lows

Looks toward the Feb 19 low at 1.1275

The EURUSD is trading at a new session low after the correction off the earlier low not only stayed below the broken trend line, but also the low from yesterday at 1.13085. Sellers remain in control.


The next target comes in at 1.1275 which is the low from February 19th. The February low - and low for the year - comes in at 1.12335.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... s-20190305
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Re: EURUSD Forecast: Lack of momentum likely to continue

388
ChuChu Rocket wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:05 am EUR/USD Forecast March 4-8 – Lack of momentum likely to continue

EUR/USD posted slight gains last week. The key events in the upcoming week are the ECB rate decision and Services PMIs. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

German retail sales were unexpectedly strong, with a gain of 3.3%. Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate came in 1.5%, as inflation levels remain well below the ECB target of 2.0%. The manufacturing sector is struggling ,as eurozone and German manufacturing PMIs came in below the 50-level, pointing to contraction.

In the U.S., Advance GDP, which was released a month late due to the government slowdown, showed a gain of 2.6% in Q4. Although this was weaker than the 3.4% gain in Q3, it was well above the estimate of 2.2%. The better than expected reading can be credited to strong consumer spending and business investment. The U.S. economy continues to perform well, with a strong expansion of 3.1% in 2018. Even with the strong GDP release, however, it’s unlikely that the Federal Reserve will veer from its dovish stance.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines
eurusd March.png


  1. Spanish Unemployment Change: Monday, 8:00. The fourth-largest economy still suffers from a high level of unemployment. The January score was particularly weak, with a reading of 83.5 thousand. The indicator is expected to drop sharply to 5.0 thousand in February.
  2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. This broad survey of 2,800 investors and analysts is pointing to persistent pessimism, with three straight declines. Another decline is expected in March, with an estimate of -3.1 points.
  3. Services PMI’s: Wednesday, 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, final French figure at 8:50, final German one at 8:55, and final euro-zone number at 9:00. Germany and the eurozone PMIs are pointing to expansion, with February scores above 50. However, there are concerns over Italian and French data, as the PMIs were in contraction territory.
  4. Eurozone Retail Sales: Wednesday, 10:00. Retail sales were soft in December, with a decline of 1.6%. This marked a 4-month low. Will w see a rebound in the January release?
  5. Eurozone GDP: Friday, 10:00. GDP for Q4 posted a small gain of 0.2% in the second estimate, and the forecast for the third estimate remains at 0.2%. The slowdown in Germany and the eurozone shows no signs of abating, so GDP numbers are likely to remain weak.
  6. ECB rate decision: Thursday: decision at 12:45, press conference at 13:30. The European Central Bank is expected to maintain rates at a flat 0.00%, where rates have been pegged since January 2016. Investors will be looking for clues regarding future rate policy.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.1712 was a low point in November 2017. The next line is 1.1669.

1.1620 has held in resistance since the start of October.

1.1570 is next.

1.1515 was a high point at the end of January. 1.1435 was a low point at the beginning of February.

1.1390 was a stepping stone on the way up in late January and capped EUR/USD earlier. 1.1345 was a swing low in mid-January.

1.1290 was a low point around the same period of time. 1.1270 was a double-bottom in December 2018 and the 2018 low of 1.1215 is next. This is followed by 1.1119.

1.1046 is the final support level for now.

I remain neutral on EUR/USD

With the global trade war weighing on the eurozone and Germany, economic indicators remain lukewarm. The ECB is likely to maintain current monetary policy, with no rate hikes on the horizon. With the Fed unlikely to raise interest rates in the first half of the year, investors are not feeling committed to the U.S dollar, especially as risk appetite has improved lately.

Source: https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-for ... -continue/



now as fed has put breaks on interest rate hikes officially, any hawkish statement by ECB is more likely to trigger rally in euro, as euro is testing and being supported at its multiyear trendline. and usdindex can loose gas that it was having due to fed hiking rates constantly.
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EURUSD Technical Analysis: The pair’s outlook remains negative

389
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: The pair’s outlook remains negative below 1.1450

  • Spot briefly pierced the 1.1300 support on Wednesday, although it has managed to reclaim that level later in the day, where it is now looking to stabilize.
  • Extra downside is expected to meet YTD lows in the vicinity of 1.1230 ahead of 2018 low at 1.1216 seen in late November.
  • On the broader picture, EUR/USD is seen negative while below the 5-month resistance line at 1.1450.

EUR/USD daily chart Overview:
Today Last Price: 1.1312
Today Daily change: 14 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.01%
Today Daily Open: 1.1311

Trends:
Daily SMA20: 1.1331
Daily SMA50: 1.1387
Daily SMA100: 1.1381
Daily SMA200: 1.1504

Levels:
Previous Daily High: 1.1326
Previous Daily Low: 1.1285
Previous Weekly High: 1.1422
Previous Weekly Low: 1.1328
Previous Monthly High: 1.1489
Previous Monthly Low: 1.1234
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.131
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1301
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1289
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1267
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1249
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1329
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1348
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1369

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-t ... 1903070845
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DislikeEuro breaks the 2019 low

390
Euro breaks the 2019 low and is fast approaching the 2018 low

Major levels in play

The February 14 low in the euro broke in the latest round of selling. That puts the focus squarely on 1.1213, which was the November low and the 2018 low.

There is talk about a fall to 1.10 but the lack of support on the weekly chart shows it could be a bigger tumble than that.


Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... s-20190307
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