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EUR/USD making a big gap on market open today
French election will cause some troubles

EUR/USD Opens At 5-Month High On French Election Results

A Macron victory in the first round of the French election has triggered a gap higher in the euro against all of its major counterparts. EUR/USD opened the new week at 1.0918 which marked a 5-month high and a gain of 1.81% over Friday’s close. Macron will face Le Pen in the final round of the elections, scheduled to take place on May 7th.

EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0911- which marks the spike low posted during the EU referendum last year. After the gap higher, the pair is seen retreating back below the level.

The first level of support is seen at 1.0873 and marks a spike high which was posted during the December ECB meeting. The level has already been tested and has held the decline thus far.

Further support is seen at the 200-period daily moving average which was broken to the upside as a result of today’s gap higher. The indicator is currently residing at 1.0842 and today’s daily close will be important in relationship to the moving average as the pair has not traded above it on a sustained basis since a breach in October.
Read more : http://www.economiccalendar.com/2017/04 ... n-results/


Really big gaps also on EURJPY (>300pips), DAX (CAC of course as well) and even GBPJPY (>230pips). So, the safe haven JPY weakens a bit and confidence in EUR comes back for now.


I think that this time there will be no gap filling for some time
Second round of French elections will be a hell


GBP/USD recovered the gap pretty quickly, but I don't think that will be the case for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.


EUR/USD - Nevertheless that this morning EUR decline a bit, I expect that current levels 1.0902/05 will sustain and most likely we will have another rising tpowatrds1.0950/60.


It has formed a double top at 1.0950, this might be the end of the move to the upside for now.

EUR/USD: Market Looking For An Excuse To Rally Above 1.10

ING FX Strategy Research notes that as EUR/USD has remained well-supported, investors will now be looking for the positives as a rationale to go long the pair.

In this regard, ING expects tomorrow's 1Q17 GDP print to pick up to 0.5% QoQ and support the more positive rhetoric from policy makers.

In addition, ING notes that the Eurozone inflation expectations derived from the 5Y5Y inflation swap are starting to nudge high – suggesting the market is buying into the upturn.

"This week we feel EUR/USD will be looking for an excuse to rally to the 1.1050/60 area," ING argues.
Source : https://www.efxnews.com/story/35942/eur ... ve-110-ing

EUR: ECB To Remove 'Or Lower' In June Statement; EUR/USD Enroute To 1.13

NAB FX Strategy Research expects the ECB at its June meeting to remove the words ‘or lower’ from the pledge to ‘keep rates unchanged or lower for an extended period of time …’

In addition, NAB expects the ECB to flag a reduction in asset purchases in October or more likely in December event ahead of a gradual taper through 2018 and from March next year a lift in the -0.4%

Against this backdrop, NAB now expects EUR/USD to trade at 1.10 in June 2017, rising to 1.11 September and 1.13 by end December.

In 2018, NAB see EUR/USD rising to 1.15 by end March, 1.16 June through to 1.19 by end December 2018.
Source : https://www.efxnews.com/story/35945/eur ... te-113-nab


It looks like it will remain range-bound until the French elections. I think even the NFP won't change that.

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