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USDCAD easing back after taking run at 1.3500

USD/CAD easing back after taking run at 1.3500
  • Collapsing crude oil prices leading the CAD straight down the charts.
  • Traders will be tensing ahead of Wednesday's FOMC rate call and statement.

Although the US Dollar continues to see broad-market weakness, the CAD is getting dragged by the nose down the charts by free-falling crude oil prices, and USD/CAD clipping into the 1.3500 major handle late on Tuesday. The pair is now trading back into 1.3450, but lack of buying interest in crude oil markets is seeing the Loonie slip even further against the greenback.

Wednesday sees the FOMC delivering their latest rate call and monetary policy statement, and the major event will see markets coiling ahead of what is expected to be one last rate hike for 2018, while markets will be looking out for changes to the FOMC's rhetoric, with investors afraid that the US Fed will be knocked off their current three-hike dot-plot on slumping global growth figures.

USD/CAD Technical Levels

Today Last Price: 1.3456
Today Daily change: -23 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.171%
Today Daily Open: 1.3479

Previous Daily SMA20: 1.3318
Previous Daily SMA50: 1.3198
Previous Daily SMA100: 1.3106
Previous Daily SMA200: 1.3033

Previous Daily High: 1.3498
Previous Daily Low: 1.3391
Previous Weekly High: 1.3424
Previous Weekly Low: 1.3292
Previous Monthly High: 1.336
Previous Monthly Low: 1.3048
Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3457
Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3432
Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3414
Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3349
Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3307
Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3521
Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3562
Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3627

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-e ... 1812190240
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Canada November CPI +1.7% vs +1.8% y/y expected

#Canada Nov 2018 #CPI m/m -0.4% vs -0.4% exp, prior 0.3%: CPI y/y 1.7% vs 1.8% exp, prior 2.4%Core CPI m/m -0.2% vs 0.4% prior Core CPI y/y 1.5% vs 1.6% prior

外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

USDCAD drops to 3-week lows

USD/CAD drops to 3-week lows, around mid-1.3300s

  • The prevalent USD selling bias keeps exerting downward pressure on Monday.
  • A stronger recovery in oil prices further underpin Loonie and add to the selling bias.

The USD/CAD pair now seems to have entered a bearish consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band around mid-1.3300s, or near three-week lows.

The pair traded with a mild negative bias for the fourth consecutive session, with a combination of factors now paving the way for an extension of last week's sharp retracement slide from the 1.3660-65 supply zone, or 19-month tops.

Despite Friday's blockbuster US monthly jobs report, growing bets that the Fed might halt its policy tightening cycle in 2019 kept the US Dollar bulls on the defensive at the start of a new trading week and failed to provide any immediate respite.

This coupled with a strong follow-through recovery in crude oil prices, supported by renewed optimism over the US-China trade talks and OPEC-led supply cuts, further underpinned the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and collaborated to the pair's weaker tone.

It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to attract any buying interest at lower levels or the ongoing bearish slide marks the end of the recent upsurge as market participants now look forward to the release of US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for some fresh impetus.

Technical levels to watch
A follow-through selling is likely to accelerate the fall towards testing the 1.3300 handle before the pair eventually drops to the 1.3350-40 support area. On the flip side, the 1.3390-1.3400 region now seems to cap any attempted recovery move, above which a bout of short-covering could further assist the pair towards challenging the 1.3475-85 supply zone.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-d ... 1901070809
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

USDCAD extends drop towards 1.3300

USD/CAD extends drop towards 1.3300 amid an improving market mood, ahead of retail sales

  • USD/CAD is trading just above 1.3300, lower on the day.
  • Oil prices are rising and US stocks futures are moving to positive territory.
  • The technical picture is mixed for the pair ahead of Canada's retail sales report.

USD/CAD is trading just above 1.3300, down on the day and after hitting a high around 1.3360. The price of oil, Canada's critical export, is on the rise. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $53.50.

In addition, US S&P stock futures are now in positive territory, indicating an upbeat open on Wall Street. They were in the red earlier in the day. The Canadian Dollar is a "risk" currency, rising with an improving market mood. Earlier, concerns about global growth, echoed by the Bank of Japan among others, weighed on sentiment.

The loonie faces a significant test later on. Canada releases retail sales data for November and the volume is projected to drop. The figures tend to have a significant impact on USD/CAD.

Crude Oil Inventories are not published today, Wednesday, as they normally are. The publication has been postponed to Thursday due to the bank holiday earlier in the week.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD_CAD (13)-636838367790110723.png

Dollar/CAD is trading above the 50 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart but above the 200 SMA. Momentum is slightly positive and the Relative Strength Index is nearly balanced.

Support awaits at 1.3320, the 50 SMA, and more importantly at 1.3220 which was a swing low in January. Further support is seen at 1.3185 that supported USD/CAD earlier in the month.

1.3320 capped the pair last week and is still fought over. The next resistance is at 1.3360 which capped the pair earlier in the day. 1.3430 is the next line to watch. It provided support in late December.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-e ... 1901231042
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

USDCAD inches lower as sellers eye another test of the 100-day moving average

USD/CAD inches lower as sellers eye another test of the 100-day moving average

USD/CAD trades at the lows for the day near 1.3240


The low this week leaned on support from the 100-day MA (red line) close to 1.3200 before price rebounded. However, sellers continue to maintain the near-term momentum by leaning on the 100-hour MA and we're seeing price fall after they held a defense of the level overnight and in early Asian trading today.


The pair continues to struggle to make a downside break sine the middle of this month as the 100-day MA continues to prove to be a tough spot for sellers to break below. Buyers are continuing to lean on that level for support despite oil prices helping to underpin the loonie this month.

At this point, the pair is very much a technical trade with the break of the 100-day MA promoting further downside with support then seen at the 200-day MA @ 1.3125. As for buyers, they will have to aim towards breaking above the key hourly moving averages @ 1.3272 and 1.3292 first. Subsequently, the 38.2 retracement level and this month's highs at around 1.3365 will prove to be the next key level for buyers to see an extension to the upside.

From a fundamental perspective, the Fed meeting today will be the next key risk event to watch out for as it will provide the next clues for the dollar as well as risk sentiment in the coming sessions. Although the Fed is likely to still take a more dovish approach by preaching patience and flexibility, a lot of that is already known to markets currently.

In that lieu, I reckon it's going to take a bit more to push USD/CAD over the extremes seen above. Taking that into consideration, US-China trade talks could be key as it could help to instigate a decisive move in risk assets i.e. oil and help to determine where the loonie is headed next.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... e-20190130
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

USDCAD Technical Analysis: Stronger corrective bounce likely

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Stronger corrective bounce likely

The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at 1.3148 - up 0.6 percent from the three-month low of 1.3068 hit on Feb. 1.

That corrective bounce could be extended further toward 1.32 in the next day or two, as the hourly chart is reporting a major bullish reversal pattern.

Hourly chart
USDCAD H1 (02-06-2019 1051)-636850277007201513.png

  • The inverse head-and-shoulders breakout - a transition from the lower highs and lower lows to the higher highs and higher lows - seen in the above chart indicates a bearish-to-bullish trend change.
  • The spot has also found acceptance above the trendline sloping downwards from the Jan. 24 and Jan. 29 highs.
  • The pair, therefore, could extend the corrective bounce to the downward sloping 200-hour moving average (MA), currently at 1.389.
    A move below 1.3124 would invalidate the bullish setup.

Trend: Bullish

Today Last Price: 1.3148
Today Daily change: 16 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.12%
Today Daily Open: 1.3132

Daily SMA20: 1.324
Daily SMA50: 1.3368
Daily SMA100: 1.3221
Daily SMA200: 1.3132

Previous Daily High: 1.3154
Previous Daily Low: 1.3101
Previous Weekly High: 1.3287
Previous Weekly Low: 1.3069
Previous Monthly High: 1.3664
Previous Monthly Low: 1.3118
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3133
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3121
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3104
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3076
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3052
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3157
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3181
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3209

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-t ... 1902060523
外国為替ニュースFundamentals! News Coverage

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