CAD news

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USDCAD easing back after taking run at 1.3500

USD/CAD easing back after taking run at 1.3500
  • Collapsing crude oil prices leading the CAD straight down the charts.
  • Traders will be tensing ahead of Wednesday's FOMC rate call and statement.

Although the US Dollar continues to see broad-market weakness, the CAD is getting dragged by the nose down the charts by free-falling crude oil prices, and USD/CAD clipping into the 1.3500 major handle late on Tuesday. The pair is now trading back into 1.3450, but lack of buying interest in crude oil markets is seeing the Loonie slip even further against the greenback.

Wednesday sees the FOMC delivering their latest rate call and monetary policy statement, and the major event will see markets coiling ahead of what is expected to be one last rate hike for 2018, while markets will be looking out for changes to the FOMC's rhetoric, with investors afraid that the US Fed will be knocked off their current three-hike dot-plot on slumping global growth figures.

USD/CAD Technical Levels

Today Last Price: 1.3456
Today Daily change: -23 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.171%
Today Daily Open: 1.3479

Previous Daily SMA20: 1.3318
Previous Daily SMA50: 1.3198
Previous Daily SMA100: 1.3106
Previous Daily SMA200: 1.3033

Previous Daily High: 1.3498
Previous Daily Low: 1.3391
Previous Weekly High: 1.3424
Previous Weekly Low: 1.3292
Previous Monthly High: 1.336
Previous Monthly Low: 1.3048
Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3457
Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3432
Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3414
Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3349
Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3307
Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3521
Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3562
Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3627

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-e ... 1812190240
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USDCAD drops to 3-week lows

USD/CAD drops to 3-week lows, around mid-1.3300s

  • The prevalent USD selling bias keeps exerting downward pressure on Monday.
  • A stronger recovery in oil prices further underpin Loonie and add to the selling bias.

The USD/CAD pair now seems to have entered a bearish consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band around mid-1.3300s, or near three-week lows.

The pair traded with a mild negative bias for the fourth consecutive session, with a combination of factors now paving the way for an extension of last week's sharp retracement slide from the 1.3660-65 supply zone, or 19-month tops.

Despite Friday's blockbuster US monthly jobs report, growing bets that the Fed might halt its policy tightening cycle in 2019 kept the US Dollar bulls on the defensive at the start of a new trading week and failed to provide any immediate respite.

This coupled with a strong follow-through recovery in crude oil prices, supported by renewed optimism over the US-China trade talks and OPEC-led supply cuts, further underpinned the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and collaborated to the pair's weaker tone.

It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to attract any buying interest at lower levels or the ongoing bearish slide marks the end of the recent upsurge as market participants now look forward to the release of US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for some fresh impetus.

Technical levels to watch
A follow-through selling is likely to accelerate the fall towards testing the 1.3300 handle before the pair eventually drops to the 1.3350-40 support area. On the flip side, the 1.3390-1.3400 region now seems to cap any attempted recovery move, above which a bout of short-covering could further assist the pair towards challenging the 1.3475-85 supply zone.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-d ... 1901070809
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USDCAD extends drop towards 1.3300

USD/CAD extends drop towards 1.3300 amid an improving market mood, ahead of retail sales

  • USD/CAD is trading just above 1.3300, lower on the day.
  • Oil prices are rising and US stocks futures are moving to positive territory.
  • The technical picture is mixed for the pair ahead of Canada's retail sales report.

USD/CAD is trading just above 1.3300, down on the day and after hitting a high around 1.3360. The price of oil, Canada's critical export, is on the rise. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $53.50.

In addition, US S&P stock futures are now in positive territory, indicating an upbeat open on Wall Street. They were in the red earlier in the day. The Canadian Dollar is a "risk" currency, rising with an improving market mood. Earlier, concerns about global growth, echoed by the Bank of Japan among others, weighed on sentiment.

The loonie faces a significant test later on. Canada releases retail sales data for November and the volume is projected to drop. The figures tend to have a significant impact on USD/CAD.

Crude Oil Inventories are not published today, Wednesday, as they normally are. The publication has been postponed to Thursday due to the bank holiday earlier in the week.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD_CAD (13)-636838367790110723.png

Dollar/CAD is trading above the 50 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart but above the 200 SMA. Momentum is slightly positive and the Relative Strength Index is nearly balanced.

Support awaits at 1.3320, the 50 SMA, and more importantly at 1.3220 which was a swing low in January. Further support is seen at 1.3185 that supported USD/CAD earlier in the month.

1.3320 capped the pair last week and is still fought over. The next resistance is at 1.3360 which capped the pair earlier in the day. 1.3430 is the next line to watch. It provided support in late December.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-e ... 1901231042
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USDCAD inches lower as sellers eye another test of the 100-day moving average

USD/CAD inches lower as sellers eye another test of the 100-day moving average

USD/CAD trades at the lows for the day near 1.3240


The low this week leaned on support from the 100-day MA (red line) close to 1.3200 before price rebounded. However, sellers continue to maintain the near-term momentum by leaning on the 100-hour MA and we're seeing price fall after they held a defense of the level overnight and in early Asian trading today.


The pair continues to struggle to make a downside break sine the middle of this month as the 100-day MA continues to prove to be a tough spot for sellers to break below. Buyers are continuing to lean on that level for support despite oil prices helping to underpin the loonie this month.

At this point, the pair is very much a technical trade with the break of the 100-day MA promoting further downside with support then seen at the 200-day MA @ 1.3125. As for buyers, they will have to aim towards breaking above the key hourly moving averages @ 1.3272 and 1.3292 first. Subsequently, the 38.2 retracement level and this month's highs at around 1.3365 will prove to be the next key level for buyers to see an extension to the upside.

From a fundamental perspective, the Fed meeting today will be the next key risk event to watch out for as it will provide the next clues for the dollar as well as risk sentiment in the coming sessions. Although the Fed is likely to still take a more dovish approach by preaching patience and flexibility, a lot of that is already known to markets currently.

In that lieu, I reckon it's going to take a bit more to push USD/CAD over the extremes seen above. Taking that into consideration, US-China trade talks could be key as it could help to instigate a decisive move in risk assets i.e. oil and help to determine where the loonie is headed next.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... e-20190130
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USDCAD Technical Analysis: Stronger corrective bounce likely

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Stronger corrective bounce likely

The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at 1.3148 - up 0.6 percent from the three-month low of 1.3068 hit on Feb. 1.

That corrective bounce could be extended further toward 1.32 in the next day or two, as the hourly chart is reporting a major bullish reversal pattern.

Hourly chart
USDCAD H1 (02-06-2019 1051)-636850277007201513.png

  • The inverse head-and-shoulders breakout - a transition from the lower highs and lower lows to the higher highs and higher lows - seen in the above chart indicates a bearish-to-bullish trend change.
  • The spot has also found acceptance above the trendline sloping downwards from the Jan. 24 and Jan. 29 highs.
  • The pair, therefore, could extend the corrective bounce to the downward sloping 200-hour moving average (MA), currently at 1.389.
    A move below 1.3124 would invalidate the bullish setup.

Trend: Bullish

Today Last Price: 1.3148
Today Daily change: 16 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.12%
Today Daily Open: 1.3132

Daily SMA20: 1.324
Daily SMA50: 1.3368
Daily SMA100: 1.3221
Daily SMA200: 1.3132

Previous Daily High: 1.3154
Previous Daily Low: 1.3101
Previous Weekly High: 1.3287
Previous Weekly Low: 1.3069
Previous Monthly High: 1.3664
Previous Monthly Low: 1.3118
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3133
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3121
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3104
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3076
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3052
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3157
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3181
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3209

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-t ... 1902060523
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USDCAD jumps above 1.32 on disappointing Canadian GDP figures

USD/CAD jumps above 1.32 on disappointing Canadian GDP figures

Hourly Chart

  • Canadian economy contracts in December.
  • Annual core PCE in the U.S. stays unchanged at 1.9% in December.
  • Coming up: Manufacturing PMI from both Canada and the U.S.

The USD/CAD pair gained nearly 100 pips in a matter of minutes after the data published by Statistics Canada revealed that the Canadian economy contracted 0.1% on a monthly basis in December. As of writing, the pair was up 0.4% on the day at 1.3220.

Further details of the report showed that the real GDP's annual growth rate in the fourth quarter slumped to 0.4% from 2% in the third quarter and missed the market expectation of 1.2%.

On the other hand, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, stayed unchanged at 1.9% in December. On a negative note, personal income declined by 0.1% in January after rising 1% in December and personal spending decreased by 0.5% in December. Despite the mixed data, the US Dollar Index was up 0.05% on the day at 96.27.

Later in the session, the IHS Markit will publish the Manufacturing PMI data for Canada and the United States. Additionally, the University of Michigan will release the final reading of the Consumer Confidence Index in February

Technical levels to watch for

Daily SMA20: 1.3205
Daily SMA50: 1.3321
Daily SMA100: 1.3268
Daily SMA200: 1.3164

Previous Daily High: 1.3208
Previous Daily Low: 1.314
Previous Weekly High: 1.3294
Previous Weekly Low: 1.3134
Previous Monthly High: 1.3341
Previous Monthly Low: 1.3069
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3182
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3166
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.313
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3102
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3063
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3198
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3237
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3265

Source: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-j ... streetnews (Article)
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Re: CAD news

mlawson71 wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:05 am
It's still quite bullish, let's see whether it will be able to reach 1.3250.
I know, right. She's moving more than any of the last NFP's too! Probably be a good pullback though when the market opens again. :)
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USDCAD Forecast: Canada’s slumping GDP reverses the trend to the upside

USD/CAD Weekly Forecast: Canada’s slumping GDP reverses the trend to the upside

  • The US Dollar gained some 100 pips during the final week of February as Canadian GDP decelerated way below the market estimates.
  • The USD/CAD broke the trendline resistance to the upside with the US Dollar benefiting from the improved macro picture.
  • The fourth-quarter US GDP rose 2.6%, way above expectations while Canadian GDP missed big time rising only by 0.4%.
  • The US and Canada’s employment reports headline the week ahead in the economic calendar as the Bank of Canada is expected to keep the target rate unchanged while possibly twisting its policy outlook to more neutral.

The USD/CAD rose some 140 pips to 1.3270 over the final week of February ending the week up 1% after the Canadian fourth-quarter GDP growth missed the market estimate big time with the USD/CAD breaking the bearish trend to the upside.

The growth differential between the US and Canada became obvious after the US fourth-quarter GDP rose above forecast by 2.6% while Canada’s GDP at the same time rose only by 0.4%. While Canada’s inflation only had a marginal currency impact, the miss in the fourth-quarter GDP saw the USD/CAD rising massively about 140 pips on Friday.

Of an important notice to the currency traders is the fact that the currency market reaction came out before the official GDP release implying the data leak from the Statistics Canada.

The USD/CAD broke the bearish trend on Friday after the GDP missed the estimates implying that the Bank of Canada scheduled to convene on Wednesday next week might twist its current policy outlook to more neutral. According to market forecast, economists see no change on the policy rate in Canada next week, but some 5% of forecasters think the Bank of Canada might cut the rates until the year-end.

In term of the economic releases next week, both the US and Canada are scheduled to release the employment report next Friday with the US labor market expected to see some 185K new jobs added in February, the wages up 3.3% y/y and the unemployment rate falling to 3.8%. The unemployment rate in Canada is expected to fall to 5.7% in February.

Technically the USD/CAD broke the bearish trend to the upside with the scheduled data set expected to confirm the growth differential favoring the US Dollar. The technical oscillators including the Momentum and the Relative Strength Index are both pointing upwards on a daily chart with Slow Stochastics generating a bullish crossover near Oversold territory indicating further upside potential.

USD/CAD daily chart
USD_CAD daily-636870548564484190.png

FXStreet Forecast Poll
The FXStreet Forecast Poll expect the USD/CAD to fall to 1.3191 next week with the bullish-to-bearish estimates ratio at 36%-55% and 9% of sideways predictions. The spot rate though broke above 1.3270 on Friday and the technical picture favors the upside instead.

For the 1-month the USD/CAD is expected to be bullish at 1.3225, which is actually bearish compared with the spot rising strongly on Friday afternoon after weak fourth-quarter Canada's GDP reading.
CAD Forecast Poll-636870553853661146.jpg

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-c ... 1903011644
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