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Brexit news: UK press report Britain may have to contribute to EU budget until 2020

#11
Britain will have to pay into the EU budget up until 2020 if it wants Europe to grant the UK reasonable terms on a Brexit transition deal
The Tele citing "senior sources in Whitehall"

"Payments up to the end of this MFF [Multi-annual financial framework] is something that we could put on the table ... "
the payments would be only be offered "in exchange" for a "sensible" EU offer on a transition deal
The senior Whitehall source added that the UK side had also not ruled out "ongoing payments" of some kind, in exchange for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA)
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Read more : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04 ... le-brexit/


EU 27 leaders agree Brexit negotiation guidelines in rapid time

#12
EU-27 leaders have today approved the 31 March draft guidelines 29 April 2017

There must have been something special on the menu in the canteen as it only took a minute to approve the guidelines first issued by European Council President Donald Tusk on 31 March

Those guidelines in full here but in essence it means that talks will begin after the UK general election on 8 June and the deadline for completing the negotiations is 29 March 2019.

The fact that it took only a minute to rubber stamp the draft proposals shows the EU-27 intent to show unity and it's reported that all 27 burst into a round of applause. No Theresa May there of course.

More importantly though it confirms that no talks on future EU/UK relations will begin until the exit process is completed and includes the not so small matter of the divorce payment by the UK which the EU estimate to be around €60bln because of EU budget rules. The UK has said it will pay nothing like that amount.
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Read more : http://news.forexlive.com/!/eu-agrees-b ... e-20170429

UK PM May braces for difficult Brexit talks after EU adopts tough stance

#13
British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Sunday divorce talks with the European Union would be difficult, responding to the tough stance taken by EU leaders over the upcoming Brexit negotiations.

EU leaders endorsed stiff divorce terms for Britain on Saturday and warned Britons to have "no illusions" about swiftly securing a new relationship to keep their access to EU markets.

"What this shows, and what some of the other comments we've seen coming from European leaders shows, is that there are going to times when these negotiations are going to be tough," May told the BBC.

May also reaffirmed her position that she would be prepared to walk away from the talks on leaving the EU without a deal if she did not like what was on offer from Brussels.
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Source : https://www.investing.com/news/economy- ... nce-478801

Brexit Takes Shape: What We Learned From 27 European Leaders

#15
European leaders unanimously signed off on their negotiating guidelines for the Brexit talks in a matter of minutes at a summit on Saturday.

After almost a year of posturing, the endorsement opens the way for discussions that will culminate with the U.K. leaving the bloc in March 2019 with or without a deal. Here are the takeaways from what was discussed by the EU’s 27 other governments in Brussels:

Europe United

While British Prime Minister Theresa May says that “Brexit means Brexit,’’ EU officials reckon it will be they, not her, who determine its actual definition. They’re confident they have the whip hand by virtue of numbers and the right negotiating experience. And as they see it, Britain has more to lose should talks collapse.
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Read more : https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/arti ... an-leaders


The UK's negotiating position has been misrepresented by European press says May

#16
May out with some comments after speaking to the Queen about the dissolution of Parliament

Over the past few days, the UK's Brexit negotiating position has been misrepresented in European press
Events of the past few days have shown whatever our wishes, there are some in Brussels who do not want talks to succeed
Whoever wins on 8th June will have an overriding task of getting the best deal for Britain from Brexit
This misrepresentation was timed to affect the election outcome
Britain will not get the right deal if we have the drift and division of a hung parliament

Germany proposed charging Britain for EU single market access

#17
German government officials have proposed giving Britain access to the European Union's single market in return for a fee, Focus magazine said on Saturday citing a Finance Ministry report.

The 35-page report on the potential costs of Brexit to Germany said Britain's departure from the EU risked "serious economic and stability relevant consequences; effects in particular on the real economy."

The ministry officials calculated Berlin would have to pay an additional 4.5 billion euros ($5 billion) a year into EU coffers as a result of Britain's departure from the bloc.

To mitigate the cost, they floated the idea of charging Britain for access to the single market.

"Such a future financial contribution should be used to alleviate the financial consequences of Brexit (reduction in EU spending or increase in payments for other member states)," Focus quoted the officials as saying.

A Finance Ministry spokesman declined to comment on the Focus report when contacted by Reuters.
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Source : https://www.investing.com/news/economy- ... ine-480777

GBP: Consensus Turns 'Too Positive' On Brexit: What's The Trade?

#18
Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research argues that as the consensus has become too positive on Brexit, GBP traders should consider how to position as the positive outcome is already priced in.

"We have been optimistic that the UK and the EU will agree to a Brexit transition and eventually to a reasonable new trade arrangement. However, getting there is not going to be smooth and the negotiations are likely to have a very difficult and slow start, BofAML argues.

"We remain optimistic for the final outcome and will buy the GBP dip, but we do see a dip ahead," BofAML recommends.
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Source ...

Visualizing The Possible City Of London 'Brexodus'

#19
The EU in Brussels has today given official powers to its top Brexit negotiator. The former French diplomat Michel Barnier is not expected to begin talks until after the UK general election in June. Banks and financial institutions are already preparing for the world after Brexit and planning to pull some of their staff from the finance hub in the City of London.

Most banks want to keep a foothold in the EU common market. The exact details are still evolving but Deutsche Bank for example is planning to relocate some 4,000 jobs to someplace else in the EU or Eurozone. Locations which could profit from the banker's Brexodus are Frankfurt and Paris but also Dublin, according to a report by Bloomberg.

brexodus.jpg

Fitch weighs in on UK election and impact

#20
Credit rating agency gives their views
  • UK vote adds to political Brexit uncertainties
  • Gen. election results creates uncertainty over policy platform, political cohesion and longevity of next UK government
  • Election result will have implications for Brexit aand potentially fiscal policy
  • Increases range of possible Brexit outcomes, including a potentially softer deal and a disorderly exit
  • terms of agreement between Theresa May and Northern Ireland's DUP are unclear and another election in near-term is possible
  • Possibility of a second Scottish independence referendum has receded after SNP lost 21 MPs vs previous election in 2015
  • UK election may also delay or disrupt Brexit talks (although May said they will go forward in 10 days time).


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