FX Monthly

21
FX Monthly: Still cautious on the EUR but risks are to the upside by Lombard Odier Bank

April 26, 2019

This month, we have updated our long-term fair valuation model for G10 FX (more details in the pdf). Broadly, we find the dollar still somewhat overvalued (4% in trade-weighted terms), albeit less so than before (6%). On balance, this does not change our general bearish USD view.

We remain cautious on EURUSD but see upside risks to our forecasts (1.14 for the end of the year and 1.16 for Q1 20). Although the increased dovishness by the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) implies lower US yields, the rate differential with the euro area is still substantial, and with the European Central Bank (ECB) now having signaled that rates could remain negative for longer, the yield differential drag is likely to remain in place for now. However, if the improvement in Chinese data starts spilling over to export demand for the eurozone, then regional data will improve and EURUSD will come under upside pressure – hence our assessment that risks are to the upside.

If the improvement in Chinese data starts spilling over to export demand for the eurozone, then regional data will improve and EURUSD will come under upside pressure – hence our assessment that risks are to the upside.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On CHF, we continue to see a gradual appreciating pressure for EURCHF largely because the back-to-back downgrades in Swiss National Bank (SNB) inflation forecasts communicate a message of increased dovishness by the central bank. On sterling, the long extension of the article 50 deadline (to 31 October), together with cleaner speculative positioning suggests that the recent collapse in implied volatility is likely to stay with us for some time. Fundamentally, we remain GBP bullish, expecting a “no-deal Brexit” to be averted.

On the other side of the world, USDJPY continues to challenge our bearish view, likely due to some recent increase in Japanese buying of foreign stocks. However, the US cycle is very mature and momentum in risk appetite is likely to moderate, which should allow the stretched JPY undervaluation to become the dominant driver and push USDJPY lower. In China, the incoming information clearly points to some stabilisation in the economy, which should bode well for the CNY. We remain constructive.


In the Nordic region, we expect both NOK and SEK to appreciate this year, but to different degrees. Our preferred currency is the NOK, which is supported by strong domestic data, monetary policy tightening, and high oil prices. SEK is likely to lag.


Finally, in the core commodity FX bloc, recent developments suggest that the AUD rally of this past month (which lost steam these past few days) has further to run, especially against the low-yielders. CAD is caught between opposing forces, but oil prices and stabilisation in global trade should help in the next few months. NZD will be the laggard as monetary policy easing is likely to disappointing domestic data.


Source: https://www.lombardodier.com/contents/c ... n-the.html

Detailed report in PDF: https://www.lombardodier.com/files/live ... _Media.pdf
These users thanked the author navid110 for the post:
moey_dw


Re: FX Monthly

22
navid110 wrote: Sun Apr 28, 2019 4:45 am disappointing domestic data.
Nice! Welcome back Nav we've missed your posts :)
These users thanked the author Jimmy for the post:
navid110
Are you looking for a Forex broker? FBS cuts spreads by up to 58%. Click here to begin your trading journey, today.
No commissions are earned by Forex-station.


Guide to the "All Averages" Filters (ADXvma, Laguerre etc.) 🆕
Use Fibonacci numbers for indicator settings + How to draw Fibonacci Extensions
An easy trick for drawing Support & Resistance

Re: FX Monthly

24
navid110 wrote: Sun Apr 28, 2019 4:45 am FX Monthly: Still cautious on the EUR but risks are to the upside by Lombard Odier Bank

April 26, 2019

This month, we have updated our long-term fair valuation model for G10 FX (more details in the pdf). Broadly, we find the dollar still somewhat overvalued (4% in trade-weighted terms), albeit less so than before (6%). On balance, this does not change our general bearish USD view.
nav it is nice to see u again welcome back i missed u posts!!!!!
These users thanked the author moey_dw for the post:
navid110
Official Forex-station GIF animator at your service 👨‍⚖️
See a GIF with Forex-station.com on it? I probably made it
The best divergence indicator in the world.
Real news exists: Infowars.com 👈

Re: Market views ...

25
Citi and J.P. Morgan are the two major global players when it come to electronic forex trading, which currently accounts for 80% of the global FX trading volume by customers, reveals the latest study of Greenwich Associates – a US market intelligence company.

HSBC also stands along Citi and J.P. Morgan when it comes to overall emerging markets currency trading share.

On top of that Citi defends its title as the world’s top FX dealer to global corporate accounts, with J.P. Morgan and HSBC shearing the second place, followed by Barclays and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The other forex dealers in the 2019 Greenwich Leaders in Global FX Market Share are UBS, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs.


Re: Market views ...

26
Australians lost over 86 million USD to investment scams in 2018 alone – the biggest portion of the almost 490 million USD in losses from over 378 000 scam reports, the latest report of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) reveals.

The investment scams have increased with 34% on the year, followed closely by the ‘dating and romance scams’, which increased by 44% to just over 60 million USD.

Overall scam losses also increased by 44% from the 340 million USD reported in 2017.

Many analysts, however, point out that the reported scams are just the tip of the iceberg as many people are too embarrassed to report their losses.

Re: Market views ...

27
Retail investors in the UK have lost more than 34 million USD to forex and crypto scams in 2018 alone, reveals the latest report, published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

Still, the data, gathered by Action Fraud shows a positive trend – individual loss due to scams decreased from 76 000 USD to 18 500 USD while total losses fell from over 48 million USD in 2017.

The total number of reported scams, however more than tripled to reach to 1834, where over a fifth are connected to crypto scams.

Re: Market views ...

28
China will further open up forex market: regulator
Image


BEIJING (Reuters) - China will fend off cross-border capital flow risks and continue to open up its foreign exchange market, the forex regulator said on Sunday.

The regulator will deepen forex reform and strengthen a crackdown on forex-related irregularities, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in a statement on its website.





https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN1U201A

Deutsche Bank to axe 18,000 jobs

29
[quote=navid110 post_id=1295386440 time=1550937894 user_id=4929083]
France's Societe Generale to cut 1,500 jobs: report

Image
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now Its Deutsche Bank Turn.

Deutsche Bank to axe 18,000 jobs



Deutsche Bank says it will cut 18,000 jobs by 2022 as part of a major restructuring of the embattled bank. For years, Germany's biggest lender has suffered from weak performance and legal woes.
Image


Deutsche Bank announced Sunday it would cut 18,000 jobs — about 1 in 5 employees — by 2022, as part of its new round of restructuring.

Deutsche Bank said in a statement on Sunday that the restructuring would include "a workforce reduction" to "around 74,000 employees by 2022."

The layoffs would contribute to reducing annual costs by €6 billion ($6.7 billion) until 2022.

The bank also plans to scrap its global equities business and scale back its investment banking. It expects a €2.8 billion euro ($3.1 billion) net loss in the second quarter as a result of restructuring charges.

Deutsche Bank said the restructuring could cost it €7.4 billion ($8.31) between until the end of 2022.

The company was hit hard by a financial crisis a decade ago. Since then it has struggled to make a profit under the new safety provisions imposed on banks.

Bank transformation
In May, Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing sought to reassure investors at Deutsche Bank's annual general meeting (AGM) that management was "prepared for tough cutbacks" and that he would "speed up the transformation" by focusing on "profitable and growing areas."
Sewing, however, said more cuts were needed to its ailing investment banking unit, which consumes most of the bank's capital and has been at the heart of various trials and fines for, among other offenses, money laundering. The unit has also failed to match its much bigger US rivals, particularly in investment banking.

The restructuring measures are a step in the right direction, said Stephan Szukalski, a Deutsche Bank supervisory board member, adding that it could be new beginning for the bank.

US cuts to equity business
Some of the changes that were proposed in May included the plan to cut its US equities business, including prime brokerage and equity derivatives, to win over shareholders.

A big part of the bank's anticipated US cuts will come from its money-losing equities business, which includes cash equities trading. The bank has also earmarked US rates trading for further reductions.

Deutsche Bank officials had previously denied reports they had planned further US restructuring measures.

https://www.dw.com/en/deutsche-bank-to- ... a-49504819

Re: Deutsche Bank to axe 18,000 jobs

30
navid110 wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:03 am
Deutsche Bank officials had previously denied reports they had planned further US restructuring measures.
Shit!
Are you looking for a Forex broker? FBS cuts spreads by up to 58%. Click here to begin your trading journey, today.
No commissions are earned by Forex-station.


Guide to the "All Averages" Filters (ADXvma, Laguerre etc.) 🆕
Use Fibonacci numbers for indicator settings + How to draw Fibonacci Extensions
An easy trick for drawing Support & Resistance


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 24 guests