NZD/USD dips below 200-hour EMA

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NZD/USD dips below 200-hour EMA, Asian markets sell risk

- The NZD/USD is down 0.32 percent in Asia, while the S&P 500 futures are reporting a 0.48 percent drop.
- The USD is on the rise against most majors as the USD/CNH remains bid, despite the rally in the Chinese stocks.

The NZD/USD pair is feeling the pull of gravity in Asia, courtesy of the risk aversion in the equities and weakness in the Chinese yuan.

At press time, the pair is trading at the session low of 0.6543 - down 0.32 percent on the day - having registered a 0.86 percent drop yesterday.

The losses the NZD and other risk currencies are likely associated with the dark mood in the equities. For instance, the S&P 500 futures are down 0.42 percent at press time. Further, Japan's Topix is down 1 percent and Australia's S&P /ASX 200 has shed 0.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the losses in Chinese yuan could be adding to the bearish pressure around the NZD/USD pair. Moreover, the risk-on rally in the Chinese stocks has not translated into CNY (or CNH) strength, leaving the USD/CNH (offshore yuan exchange rate) on the path toward the major psychological hurdle of 7.00.

Should the CNY witness a sudden reversal in fortunes, then the NZD and other risk currencies will likely pick up a strong bid.

NZD/USD Technical Levels

Resistance: 0.6562 (50% Fib R of 0.67/0.6424), 0.6594 (61.8% Fib R of 0.67/0.6424), 0.6599 (50-day EMA)

Support: 0.6538 (38.2% Fib R of 0.6424/0.6611), 0.6523 (Oct. 19 low), 0.65 (psychological level)

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-d ... 1810230145
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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: bullish bias, eyes 0.68

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: bullish bias, eyes 0.68
  • The NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6770, having clocked a low of 0.6754 earlier today.
  • The pair has charted higher lows and higher highs pattern in the last 24 hours, adding credence to the falling channel witnessed yesterday.
  • The stacking order of the 50-hour exponential moving average (EMA), above the 100-hour EMA, above the 200-hour EMA indicates the path of least resistance is on the higher side.
  • The 14-hour relative strength index is also reporting bullish conditions above 50.00.
  • The spot looks set to test the psychological hurdle of 0.68 in a day or two. The bullish setup would be invalidated if the spot dips below 0.6734, violating the higher low setup.


Trend: Bullish

NZD/USD
Overview:
Last Price: 0.677
Daily change: 13 pips
Daily change: 0.192%
Daily Open: 0.6757
Trends:
Daily SMA20: 0.6617
Daily SMA50: 0.6586
Daily SMA100: 0.6655
Daily SMA200: 0.6898
Levels:
Daily High: 0.6768
Daily Low: 0.6708
Weekly High: 0.682
Weekly Low: 0.6632
Monthly High: 0.663
Monthly Low: 0.6424
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.6745
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.6731
Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.672
Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6683
Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6659
Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.6781
Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.6805
Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.6842
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NZDUSD Technical Analysis: Head-and-shoulders breakdown confirmed

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Head-and-shoulders breakdown confirmed

  • The American dollar found love in the overnight trade after the Fed signaled that rates could be hiked two times in 2019, dashing hopes of a pause.
  • The NZD/USD pair fell below 0.6784, confirming a head-and-shoulders breakdown on the 4-hour chart. The bearish reversal pattern indicates the rally from the Oct. 8 low of 0.6424 has ended and the bears have likely regained control. Notably, the pattern has opened the doors for a drop to 0.66 (target as per the measured move method).
  • Further evidence that bears are in a commanding position is the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 43.00 and the downward sloping 5- and 10-day simple moving averages (SMAs).
  • The bearish pressure would wane if the pair unexpectedly moves back above the 10-day SMA, currently at 0.6828.

4-Hour Chart
Trend: bearish

Overview:
Today Last Price: 0.6778
Today Daily change: -17 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.250%
Today Daily Open: 0.6795

Trends:
Previous Daily SMA20: 0.6849
Previous Daily SMA50: 0.6729
Previous Daily SMA100: 0.667
Previous Daily SMA200: 0.6841

Levels:
Previous Daily High: 0.6871
Previous Daily Low: 0.6783
Previous Weekly High: 0.6912
Previous Weekly Low: 0.6778
Previous Monthly High: 0.6887
Previous Monthly Low: 0.6514
Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.6817
Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.6837
Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.6761
Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6728
Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6673
Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.6849
Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.6904
Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.6937

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-t ... 1812200133
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NZDUSD Technical Analysis: Selling interest in progress; hits one-week low

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NZDUSD selling interest in progress; hits one-week low


NZDUSD is continuing this week’s sell off with strong momentum, reaching a one-week low around 0.6730 and at the same time confirming the start of a bearish movement. The short-term bias looks negative as the MACD keeps losing ground below its red trigger line, while the RSI seems to be making its way down beneath its 50 neutral mark, moving towards the oversold territory.

The 0.6705 could be a critical level for steeper bearish actions if the pair continues the negative tendency. Also, the 0.6670 could attract some attention, taken from the low on January 4, while a significant leg below this hurdle could open the door for the next support of 0.6610.

However, if the pair reverses back to the upside and rise above 0.6752, investors could make a pause at the 40- and then at the 20-simple moving averages (SMAs) around the 0.6800 handle. If the price continues to extend gains, resistance could come next somewhere near the latest high of 0.6847.

Overall, kiwi/dollar has reversed back to the downside in the 4-hour chart, slipping below the SMAs, which are ready to post a bearish cross in the near future.

Source: https://www.xm.com/technical-analysis-n ... -low-94413
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Re: NZD news

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For a year New Zealand citizens have lost over 23 million NZD (14,8 million USD) in online scams, where the average victim has been deprived of 9801 USD.

According to Netsafe analysts - an online safety organization, that gathered the data, the actual number is much higher, because most victims are often too embarrassed to report their losses.

On one occasion a man lost as much as 5 million NZD (3,2 million USD) in an inheritance scam.

Re: NZD news

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New Zealand Braces for Economic Hit as Chinese Tourists Banned

(Bloomberg) -- New Zealand is bracing for the coronavirus to hit its tourism industry and dent economic growth.

The isolated South Pacific nation may suffer a bigger economic impact than others because tourism is its largest export earner and China, the source of the outbreak, accounts for about 10% of foreign visitors. It is also vulnerable to slowdowns in major trading partners in Asia. The government on Monday followed other countries in imposing a ban on travelers from China, which is initially set to remain in place for two weeks.

“The economic costs to New Zealand will arise not from the virus itself, but from the measures taken globally to try to contain it,” said Dominick Stephens, chief New Zealand economist at Westpac in Auckland. “On top of the direct impact of restricted travel, the New Zealand economy will also face second-round effects such as reduced spending by furloughed tourism workers, and the GDP impact from disrupted goods exports.”

While the central bank is expected to hold its official cash rate at 1% on Feb. 12, investors are increasing bets on another cut later this year. The chance of a cut to 0.75% by the end of 2020 rose to 63% today from 37% a week ago, swaps data show.

New Zealand’s currency has dropped 4.1% so far this year while stocks directly exposed to tourism such as Air New Zealand Ltd., Tourism Holdings Ltd. and Auckland International Airport Ltd. have plunged.

The ban on travelers coming from or through China will initially cost the tourism industry about NZ$100 million ($65 million), according to Tourism Industry Aotearoa, which represents tourist operators.

“It means somewhere around 20,000 visitors now not coming in the next fortnight” and “the average Chinese visitor spends NZ$4,700 on their stay in New Zealand,” TIA Chief Executive Chris Roberts told Radio New Zealand. “I’m sure most businesses can manage with this fortnight period, but the uncertainty is what might happen after that, how long might this go on. The longer this lasts, the bigger the economic impact will be.”

Export Exposure

Westpac economists estimate the travel ban will shave 0.4 of a percentage point off quarterly growth if it lasts two months. The SARS epidemic in 2003, which had a small and temporary impact on New Zealand growth, may not be a good indicator of what to expect, they said in a research note.

“New Zealand’s exports are more heavily concentrated toward the affected countries than they were during the SARS outbreak,” they said. “In 2003 only 5% of our exports went to mainland China and 2% to Hong Kong; more broadly, 23% went to Asia ex-Japan. Today, 28% of our exports go to China alone, and 48% go to Asia ex-Japan.”

New Zealand’s Treasury department said the coronavirus poses a new risk to the economic outlook but the impact on trade and tourism is difficult to gauge.

While it is too early to tell for sure, “the relatively quick and substantial Chinese and global response to the new virus should help to minimize the economic impact,” it said in its Monthly Economic Indicators report earlier Monday.

https://www.investing.com/news/economy/ ... ed-2074093

Re: NZD news

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New Zealand’s Financial Markets Authority (FMA) just this Thursday published its per annum Investor Confidence Survey. Despite the ongoing COVID-19 caused difficulties, the confidence of New Zealander investors has remained high, the report reads.

The FMA survey reveals that for a third year in a row the confidence in the markets has basically stayed within the same range. This might come as a surprise to many, most notably because of the virus epidemic that has been the undoing of many a business, as well as affecting the trading market is unexpected ways.

The FMA survey was conducted between the 5th and 14th May this year, a period when New Zealand was in a Level 3 lockdown. Even then, 2/3rd of interviewed investors remained confident in the country’s markets.

People knew that business is conducted better when it's not impeded by a disease.


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