AUD/USD struggles near weekly lows, just below 0.7100 handle

4 Hour Chart

• The USD preserves the previous session’s upbeat US data-led gains.
• Bulls shrug off better than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI print.
• Traders now eye US economic docket for some meaningful opportunities.

The AUD/USD pair now seems to have entered a bearish consolidation phase and was seen consolidating in a narrow trading band near the lower end of its weekly trading range.

Having faced rejection near the 0.7200 handle earlier this week, the pair came under some additional selling pressure on Thursday following stronger than expected US economy, especially an unexpectedly stronger GDP growth figures.

The advance GDP estimate showed that the US economic growth stood at 2.6% annualized pace in the last quarter of 2018 and the Chicago PMI rose to a reading of 64.7 in February as compared to 56.7 in the previous month.

Upbeat US economic data triggered a fresh leg of an upsurge in the US Treasury bond yields, which provided a goodish lift to the US Dollar and eventually exerted some additional downward pressure on the major.

The China-proxy Australian Dollar held on the defensive and failed to gain any respite from Friday's release of better-than-expected Caixin China manufacturing PMI, which jumped to 49.9 in February from 48.3 in January.

Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting ISM manufacturing PMI and revised UoM Consumer Sentiment index, for some fresh impetus on the last trading day of the week.

Technical levels to watch

Immediate support is pegged near the 0.7070 region, below which the pair is likely to accelerate the slide towards the 0.7050-40 intermediate support before eventually falling to the key 0.70 psychological mark. On the flip side, the 0.7130 region now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, which if cleared might assist the pair to make a fresh attempt towards conquering the 0.7200 handle.

Source: https://forex-station.com (chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-s ... 1903010652 (article)

AUD/USD is pretty bearish, I think the biggest question is whether it will form a double bottom at 0.7050.

Not much hope for this pair

AUDUSD moves back up toward 100 hour MA

The 100 hour MA and swing area around the 0.7050 area

The AUDUSD has been under pressure as slowing global growth and exposure to slowing China weighs on the pair.


Today, however, despite the much weaker China trade data, the pair has seen a push off the lows.

The US jobs data sent the price to a new day high, but the pair did stall at the 100 hour MA and a swing area from the last few days. That area comes in at 0.7048-507. The high price reached 0.70502 and backed off. The price is now moving back toward that level.

The fundamental story is still bearish but the price action today says there is some cause for pause. The technicals can tilt a little more to the upside on a break of the 0.70483-507 area. Above that, the 0.7070 area and the 38.2% at 0.7077 would be targeted (if the price can stay above the 0.7050 area).

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... a-20190308

Let's see whether it will rally above 0.7050.

mlawson71 wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:56 am Let's see whether it will rally above 0.7050.

For the sake of Australians, I hope so man!

AUD/USD bounces off lows, but lacks any strong follow-through

• Dismal Chinese data over the weekend exerts some pressure on Monday.
• A subdued USD demand extends some support and helped limit downside.
• Focus now shifts to important US macro data for a fresh directional impetus.

The AUD/USD pair managed to recover around 20-pips from Asian session lows and is currently placed at the top end of its daily trading range, just below mid-0.7000s.

The pair failed to capitalize on Friday's goodish bounce from over two-month lows, supported by mixed US monthly jobs report (NFP), and opened with a modest bearish gap at the start of a new trading week on the back of another disappointment from Chinese macro releases.

Chinese data released over the weekend showed that producer price inflation (PPI) held steady at 0.1% y/y rate and the headline CPI eased to 1.5% in February, which turned out to be one of the key factors exerting some downward pressure on the China-proxy Australian Dollar.

Despite the negative factor, the downside remained cushioned amid a subdued US Dollar price action, which remained on the defensive in wake of Friday's disappointing jobs data that showed that the US economy added only 20K new jobs in February as compared to 180K expected.

It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to gain any meaningful traction or continues with its lacklustre trading action as market participants now look forward to today's important release of the US monthly retail sales data for some meaningful impetus.

This coupled with other key US macro data - the latest US consumer inflation figures on Tuesday and durable goods orders data on Wednesday will now play an important role in determining the pair's next leg of a directional move.

Technical levels to watch

Overview:
Today Last Price: 0.7042
Today Daily change: -2 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.03%
Today Daily Open: 0.7044

Trends:
Daily SMA20: 0.7106
Daily SMA50: 0.7133
Daily SMA100: 0.7161
Daily SMA200: 0.724

Levels:
Previous Daily High: 0.7053
Previous Daily Low: 0.7002
Previous Weekly High: 0.7118
Previous Weekly Low: 0.7002
Previous Monthly High: 0.7285
Previous Monthly Low: 0.7053
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7034
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7021
Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7013
Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6982
Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6962
Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7064
Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7084
Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7115

Source: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-b ... 1903110651 (Article)

Well, it did break out above 0.7050 but how high it will climb remains to be seen.

AUD/USD holds weaker but key near-term levels are still offering support

AUD/USD downside remains limited by the key hourly moving averages

At least that remains the case for now. The aussie is once again weaker on yields play as mentioned yesterday here as traders/investors are favouring the dollar in Asian trading, which is also one of the reasons touted for the move higher in USD/JPY.

For AUD/USD, the confluence of the two key hourly moving averages will be the main support level for the pair along with the 0.7050 level. A fall below that will see the near-term bias turn more bearish and open up a move back towards the 0.7000 handle; minor support is seen around 0.7020-25.

Another reason that is said to be dragging the aussie lower today is that the bank bill swap rates are slowly coming off again. Since the RBA outlook has grown towards favouring rate cuts now, there has been a dramatic decline in said rates since February.


The rates are approaching early 2018 levels and that will now start to raise questions about domestic banks' lending rates as funding costs are beginning to move lower beyond what they were when the banks first increased it (or at least the "Big Four") in August last year.

This will be something to watch out for because if banks start to scale back on their lending rates, it at least eases the burden on consumers but it is also a sign that markets are starting to err even more towards a rate cut bias.

That said, I wouldn't count on domestic banks' reacting all too quickly. It's one thing to raise lending rates when their margins are being squeezed. But when their margins are growing as costs dwindle, there will be many "meetings" and "action points" before rates are lowered.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... t-20190314

AUD/USD buyers poised but price bias remains jammed between key levels

The aussie is holding up well so far this week
The near-term bias in AUD/USD turned from being more bearish to being more bullish since overnight trading and price is continuing to extend to the upside as a result. Although buyers are in near-term control, the coast isn't clear yet for a run higher in the pair.

Currently, there is some resistance around 0.7130 with the 61.8 retracement level holding around said level but just above that there are more critical resistance levels in play.


In the bigger picture, price is starting to look for a firm break above the downside wedge that has been forming so far this year. However, the 100-day MA (red line) @ 0.7157 will be a key level to watch out for in limiting any upside potential in the pair.

The positive news in the past week for AUD/USD buyers is that the Fed's latest dot plots projection shows no rate hikes for 2019 as of now. With AUD/USD being mostly a yields story in the grand scheme of things, that will certainly be a welcome relief for the aussie.

That said, bond yields globally have been encountering a tough time as of late and we even saw Australia's 10-year yields fall to a record low in trading yesterday; which isn't really a good sign for the aussie, all things considered.

However, you can't ignore what's happening on the charts either so just be wary of a potential break to the upside should price be able to move above the 100-day MA. As for trading today, there are large expiries set to keep price action sandwiched between the 0.7100 handle and the 0.7150 level so that should work in sellers' favour.

At 0.7100-10 levels, there is about A$847m worth of expiries rolling off while at 0.7146-50, there is about $A1.0bn worth of expiries rolling off. I would expect that to keep price action contained around current levels for today.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... s-20190326

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Repeated bounces off 50% Fibo. can recall 0.7140 as a quote

• The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.7100 while heading towards Friday’s European session.
• The pair has been falling short to decline beneath 50% Fibonacci retracement of its December 2018 – January 2019 drop, which in turn signal brighter chance of its pullback to 0.7120 immediate resistance.
• Should prices manage to clear 0.7120, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.7140 and 0.7160 comprising 100-day simple moving average (SMA) could gain market attention.
• Additionally, pair’s sustained trading past-0.7160 enables it to aim for 0.7200 mark ahead of targeting the 200-day SMA level of 0.7210.
• On the contrary, pair’s dip beneath 0.7055 nearby support could recall 0.7030 and 0.7000 on the chart.
• However, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 0.6980 could limit the pair’s declines under 0.7000, if not then 0.6910 and 0.6830 might come to market’s focus.

AUD/USD daily chart
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-t ... 1903290559

AUD/USD pushes higher as risk-on mood continues to weigh on the dollar

The aussie is extending its gains as markets keep up the risk-on mood


The aussie is buoyed after better-than-expected retail sales data earlier as well as a more optimistic risk tone in markets as Chinese PMI figures rebounded slightly in March. That saw AUD/USD break back above its key hourly moving averages, putting buyers in the driver's seat in the near-term.

Since that break this morning, price is extending higher above 0.7100 and now touches a high of 0.7127 on the day. Near-term resistance is seen next around 0.7129-32 from the highs posted on Monday.

Beyond that, key resistance lies near the 0.7150 level where the 100-day MA is located.


That will be the key level to watch out for in trading later today. If price holds a break above that at the close, it will put an end to the bearish bias/momentum in the pair.

At the moment, markets are still largely focusing on risk sentiment and that is continuing to weigh on the dollar as well with the greenback down near the lows against the likes of the euro, loonie and kiwi as well.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... r-20190403