AUD news

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AUD/USD attempting gains above 100-day EMA

AUD/USD is attempting gains above 100-day EMA after China trade data release

- AUD/USD is mildy bid above the 100-day EMA, having added 10 pips after China trade data release.
- The AUD's 4 percent recovery rally may fall apart if trade tensions between the US and China escalate.

The AUD/USD jumped 10 pips
to a session high of 0.7280 after China data showed the trade surplus widened to CNY 233.63 billion in October from the previous month's print of CNY 213.23 billion.

The CNY-denominated exports rose 20.1 percent year-on-year, bettering the estimate of 12 percent. Meanwhile, imports surged 26.3 percent, beating the estimate of 14 percent.

In US dollar terms, the trade surplus widened to $34.01 billion from $31.70 billion, but narrowly missed the forecasted figure of $35.00 billion.

The sharp rise in exports may have put a bid under the Aussie dollar. However, a convincing break above 0.73 may remain elusive if the details reveal a drop in the imports of iron ore and copper and a surge in China's surplus with the US.

AUD/USD Technical Levels

Last Price: 0.7277
Daily change: -1.0 pips
Daily change: -0.0137%
Daily Open: 0.7278

Daily SMA20: 0.7129
Daily SMA50: 0.716
Daily SMA100: 0.7267
Daily SMA200: 0.7478

Daily High: 0.7302
Daily Low: 0.7213
Weekly High: 0.726
Weekly Low: 0.705
Monthly High: 0.724
Monthly Low: 0.702
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7268
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7247
Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7227
Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7175
Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7138
Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7316
Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7354
Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7405

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-i ... 1811080321
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis – Weekly Wall of Resistance

AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Weekly Wall of Resistance Layered at .7252, .7307 and .7349

Based on last week’s close at .7228, the direction of the AUD/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the intermediate 50% level at .7252.


A positive outlook for the economy from the Reserve Bank of Australia helped underpin the Australian Dollar last week, but gains were limited by another hawkish monetary policy statement by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Aussie was also helped by stronger than expected trade data out of China, its largest trading partner.

Last week, the AUD/USD settled at .7228, up 0.0030 or +0.41%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the official interest rate unchanged for the 27th consecutive month at its monetary policy meeting and gave no indication it would lift rates from a record-low 1.50 percent any time soon. “The Australian economy is performing well,” Dr. Lowe said.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve also left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, while reaffirming the likelihood of another rate hike in December.


Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The two week rally has put the AUD/USD in a position to challenge the last main top at .7314. A trade through this level will change the main trend to up. A move through .7020 will signal the resumption of the downtrend.

The new short-term range is .7020 to .7302. Its retracement zone at .7161 to .7128 is the primary downside target.

The intermediate range is .7484 to .7020. Its retracement zone at .7252 to .7307 is the first upside target. This zone was tested last week when the Forex pair rallied to .7302.

The main range is .7677 to .7020. Its retracement zone at .7349 to .7426 is the next upside target.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Based on last week’s close at .7228, the direction of the AUD/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the intermediate 50% level at .7252.

A sustained move under .7252 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into the short-term retracement zone at .7161 to .7128. This is a key area because aggressive counter-trend buyers may attempt to form a secondary higher bottom on a test of this area.

A sustained move over .7252 will signal the presence of buyers. The next rally, however, is likely to be labored because of a series of potential resistance levels including last week’s high at .7302, the intermediate Fibonacci level at .7307, a main top at .7314 and the main 50% level at .7349.

The trigger point for an acceleration to the upside is .7349. Overtaking this level with rising volume could drive the AUD/USD into the main Fibonacci level at .7426.

Source: https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... 349-537210
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AUD/USD fails to sustain the bounce above 0.7200

AUD/USD fails to sustain the bounce above 0.7200

  • Resurgent US dollar demand, negative oil prices keep the bounce limited.
  • Focus on the Fedspeaks, USD dynamics and China data dump for fresh impetus.

The USD bulls appear to have regained the poise in the European trading, breaking the AUD/USD pair lower from its consolidative phase, following the Asian bounce back above the 0.72 handle.

The Aussie jumped nearly 40-pips and hit daily tops near 0.7220 levels in Asia after the risk sentiment got a lift from the renewed optimism over the US-China trade talks, as the Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He was said to visit the US to discuss on the trade issue ahead of the meeting between the US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi scheduled later this month.

However, the bulls failed to resist above the 0.72 handle, courtesy bearish technical set up and downbeat Australian NAB confidence and condition readings released earlier today. More so, a fresh buying interest seen around the US dollar across its main competitors combined with falling oil prices also dragged the spot lower, as markets await the Fedspeaks and the sentiment on the Wall Street for further momentum.

Also, in focus remains Wednesday’s Australian wage price index data and Chinese economic releases for any sustained recovery momentum in the major.

AUD/USD Technical Levels

Last Price: 0.7194
Daily change: 12 pips
Daily change: 0.167%
Daily Open: 0.7182

Daily SMA20: 0.7144
Daily SMA50: 0.716
Daily SMA100: 0.7261
Daily SMA200: 0.7466

Daily High: 0.7239
Daily Low: 0.7181
Weekly High: 0.7304
Weekly Low: 0.7183
Monthly High: 0.724
Monthly Low: 0.702
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7203
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7217
Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7162
Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7143
Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7104
Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.722
Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7258
Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7278

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-f ... 1811131006
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AUD/USD: Focus is on the 10-year yield differential

AUD/USD: Focus is on the 10-year yield differential

  • The Aussie dollar's recovery rally is falling apart as the 10-year yield differential is rising again in the USD-positive manner.
  • The yield differential may revisit recent highs if the Fed policymakers, scheduled to speak this week, call for above-neutral interest rates.

The Aussie dollar is closely following the action in the spread between the US 10-year treasury yield and its Australian counterpart.

The spread topped out at 54 basis points on Oct. 31. Interestingly, the AUD picked up a strong bid on the following day and rose above 0.73 on Nov. 16. During the same time frame, the spread fell back to 35 basis points.

Further, the currency pair dived out of the rising trendline on Nov. 20, signaling the end of the corrective rally, as the spread began to rise again in favor of the USD. Notably, the spread has increased by eight basis points in the last seven days and could rise even further, pushing the AUD/USD lower, if the Fed officials reaffirm the gradual path of tightening and drop hints of an above-neutral interest rate policy.

Fed policymakers - Bostic, Evans, and George - are scheduled to speak today. Fed Chair Powell will take the center stage tomorrow, followed by the Fed minutes on Thursday.

AUD/USD Technical Levels

Today Last Price: 0.7228
Today Daily change: -2.0 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.0277%
Today Daily Open: 0.723

Previous Daily SMA20: 0.7225
Previous Daily SMA50: 0.7179
Previous Daily SMA100: 0.7248
Previous Daily SMA200: 0.7435

Previous Daily High: 0.7278
Previous Daily Low: 0.7224
Previous Weekly High: 0.7327
Previous Weekly Low: 0.7202
Previous Monthly High: 0.724
Previous Monthly Low: 0.702
Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7245
Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7258
Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.721
Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7191
Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7157
Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7264
Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7298
Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7317

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-f ... 1811270351
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Today: NZD is the strongest & AUD is the weakest

The NZD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest.

The USD mostly higher but the gains are limited
The North American morning snapshot is showing the NZD is the strongest while the AUD is the weakest in what has been limited trading ahead of the main action from the G20 meeting.


The ranges and changes are minimal (see chart below). Against the USD, the GBPUSD has the largest trading range at 65 pips. That is still well below its 22 day average of 127 pips. All the other pairs have ranges less than 48 pips (USDJPY has only traded in a 21 pip range and the NZDUSD only in a 20 pip range). The major cross currency pairs - including the often more volatile JPY crosses - are also well contained. With the weekend risk from the G20, it is not surprising that the markets are not moving much. However, there can be bouts of squaring up before the close that could solicit market reactions today and any comments will be scrutinized as well.


A snapshot of the other markets is showing:
  • Spot gold down -$2.00 on the stronger dollar
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading down $.75 or -1.46% at $50.72.. The low reached $50.31. The high extended to $51.79
  • Bitcoin on Coinbase is trading lower again today. The price is down $-229 at $3951.59. The low reached $3869. The digital currency is trading back below its 200 hour moving average of $4056 and 100 hour moving average of $3989. Staying below each will keep the bears in control.

The US equity futures are implying a lower opening
  • Dow industrial average, -100 points
  • S&P, -7 points
  • Nasdaq, -19 points

In Europe, shares are mostly lower:
  • German DAX, -0.6%
  • France's CAC, 0.3%
  • UK FTSE, -0.7%
  • Spain's Ibex, -0.28%
  • Italy's FTSE MIB, unchanged

In the US debt market, the 2 year is up modestly. the 30 year is down -1.8 bps. The 2-10 euros for it is down to about 20 basis points as the market shifts the tightening bias of the Fed in 2019.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... t-20181130
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AUDUSD stalls at yesterday's high. Rotates lower.

AUDUSD stalls at yesterday's high. Rotates lower.

A gap to fill from the run higher over the weekend
The AUDUSD moved higher in the Asian session into the London session and in doing so retested the high from yesterday. The highs today stalled right at the level (at 0.73928). That is not encouraging for the buyers, and they have turned around and sold.


Now, on the downside, the price did gap higher on Monday, opening and moving away from the swing high from last week at 0.73437. The low this week has reached 0.73458. Filling that gap is a downside target. A move below that level will also look to get below the swing high from November 16 at 0.7337. The 100 hour MA is behind that at 0.73305

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... r-20181204
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AUDUSD: Value of put options (bearish bets) rises as Australia GDP growth slows sharply

AUDUSD: Value of put options (bearish bets) rises as Australia GDP growth slows sharply

The AUD/USD fell more than 50 pips earlier today after the ABS reported a sharp slowdown in Australia's growth rate in the September quarter.

Further, the dismal GDP reading seems to have put a bid under the AUD puts. This is evident from the drop in the one-month 25 delta risk reversals (AUD1MRR) to one-week low of -0.825 from yesterday's level of -0.70.

The negative number indicates the implied volatility premium or demand for the AUD puts is higher than that for calls. So, a drop from -0.70 to -0.825 indicates the demand or value for put options has increased today.

Simply put, the investors are adding bets to position for a weakness in the AUD.


Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-v ... 1812050412
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AUDUSD getting ready for the drop to 0.7200 figure

Technical Analysis: Aussie getting ready for the drop to 0.7200 figure

AUDUSD Daily Chart
AUD/USD is trading in a bear trend below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) as the market is dropping below the 0.7400 and 0.7300 figures.

AUDUSD 4 Hour Chart
The Aussie broke below the 0.7300 as well as the 50 and 100 SMAs suggesting potential weakness in the coming sessions.
Technical indicators have also turned bearish

AUDUSD 30 Min Chart
On lower time-frames, the market is set to retest 0.7300 and then potentially drop to 0.7200 figure.

Additional key levels

Today Last Price: 0.7269
Today Daily change: -67 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.913%
Today Daily Open: 0.7336

Previous Daily SMA20: 0.7267
Previous Daily SMA50: 0.7184
Previous Daily SMA100: 0.7242
Previous Daily SMA200: 0.7419

Previous Daily High: 0.7394
Previous Daily Low: 0.7326
Previous Weekly High: 0.7345
Previous Weekly Low: 0.7199
Previous Monthly High: 0.7345
Previous Monthly Low: 0.7072
Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7352
Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7368
Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.731
Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7284
Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7242
Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7378
Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.742
Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7446

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-t ... 1812051733
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AUDUSD moves back higher to test 100 day MA

AUDUSD moves back higher to test 100 day MA

Should expect sellers near the area as a battle between buyers and sellers define their levels.


The traders in the AUDUSD are in the midst of a battle.

On the downside the price low today breached below the double bottom at 0.7198, but could only reach 0.71906 before running out of steam and rebounding
On the topside, the fall today took the price below its 100 day MA at 0.72362. The price correction off the low reached 0.72324
We currently trade at 0.7215 between the two extremes. The battle is on.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... a-20181206
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AUD/USD Forecast December 10-14

AUD/USD Forecast December 10-14 – Trade giveth, trade and Australian GDP taketh away

The Australian dollar hit new highs when the US and China seemingly made significant progress but dropped back with the reality. What’s next? The upcoming week features a mix of Australian and Chinese events. Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

China, Australia’s No. 1 trade partner, agreed on a trade truce with the US in the Xi-Trump meeting in Buenos Aires. However, there were differences between the versions coming out of Washington and Beijing. Moreover, the arrest of Huawei’s CFO Meng weighed heavily on the mood. Australian data did not help. GDP increased by only 0.3% q/q in Q3, half the expectations. The RBA hardly changed its statement in its last rate decision for the next two months but may need to downgrade its assessments if the data continue disappointing.

AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  • Christopher Kent talks: Sunday, 21:35. The Assistant Governor at the RBA will speak in Sydney at the wake of the new week and will have an opportunity to comment on the weak GDP data and the path of monetary policy.
  • Home Loans: Monday, 00:30. After many years of a housing boom, things are slowing down, especially in Sydney. Home loans dropped by 1% in September. A slide of 0.5% is projected for October.
  • HPI: Tuesday, 00:30. The House Price Index dropped in the past two quarters, both by 0.7%. No respite is due now, as expectations stand at an even greater decline, of 1.5% in Q3 2018.
  • NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. The National Australia Bank’s monthly survey of around 350 businesses dropped to 4 points in October, at the lower end of the range that was seen in recent months. A similar score is likely for October.
  • Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Tuesday, 23:30. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment showed an increase of 2.8% in sentiment in November, a significant improvement in this volatile indicator. The survey of 1,200 consumers may drop now.
  • MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 00:00. Australia publishes official inflation numbers only once per quarter. This monthly gauge by the Melbourne Institute fills the gap. Inflation expectations dropped to 3.6% in October after 4% in the previous three months. Another drop will indicate a slowing economy in addition to slower price rises.
  • RBA Bulletin: Thursday, 00:30. The RBA publishes this quarterly in-depth report about the current and future economic conditions. Some of the data is already out, limiting the impact, but surprises cannot be ruled out.
  • Chinese Industrial Production: Friday, 2:00. The world’s second-largest economy has seen a slight slowdown in the pace of growth. Output increased by 5.9% y/y in October and a repeat of the same annual growth rate is projected for November.
    *All times are GMT

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Aussie/USD kicked off the week with a massive weekend gap and nearly reached 0.74 before falling sharply to just below 0.72.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

0.7480 capped the pair in mid-July and defends the round 0.75 level. 0.74 was the high point reached the pair reached at the wake of December. The next line to watch is 0.7340 that the Aussie hit in late November.

0.7315 was a swing high seen in late September and it remains relevant. Further down, 0.7240 separated ranges in September and in October. 0.7190 was a low point in early December.

Lower, 0.7165 was a swing low after a recovery in mid-November. 0.7085 was a low point in September.

The round number of 0.70 is closely watched by many market participants. Close by, 0.6970 played a role back in January 2017. Below, the only noteworthy level is only 0.6825 that supported the pair in late 2016 and early 2017.

I am bearish on AUD/USD

The global economy is slowing down and so is Australia. Contrary to what the RBA has said, it is more likely to see interest rates falling rather than rising in Australia. And in the US, things are going in the opposite direction.

Source: https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-for ... keth-away/
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