AUDUSD hits one-week low as S&P 500 futures drop

21
AUD/USD hits one-week low as S&P 500 futures drop

  • AUD/USD hit a one-week low of 0.7158 a few minutes before press time.
  • The losses in the S&P 500 futures are likely overshadowing the overnight gains in the US equities and copper.

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7169, having clocked a low of 0.7158 soon before press time; a level last seen on Jan. 10.

The Australian currency is feeling the pull of gravity, possibly due to the risk-off tone in the S&P 500 futures. As of writing, the S&P 500 futures are down 0.24 percent on the day. Further, Japan's Nikkei is reporting a 0.12 percent drop. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks are trading flat-to-negative.

More importantly, the slight risk aversion in Asian stocks is overshadowing the positive overnight leads - Dow rallied 0.59 percent yesterday, as banking stocks cheered upbeat quarterly results. Further, copper, one of Australia's top exports, gained more than 1 percent.

Looking ahead, the pair could slide toward 0.71 if the risk aversion worsens. Technically speaking, a daily close above the stiff resistance of the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) would signal a continuation of the rally from recent lows below 0.70

AUD/USD Technical Levels

Overview:
Today Last Price: 0.7168
Today Daily change: -5.0 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.0697%
Today Daily Open: 0.7173

Trends:
Previous Daily SMA20: 0.7101
Previous Daily SMA50: 0.7186
Previous Daily SMA100: 0.7173
Previous Daily SMA200: 0.7323

Levels:
Previous Daily High: 0.7212
Previous Daily Low: 0.7161
Previous Weekly High: 0.7236
Previous Weekly Low: 0.7089
Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7181
Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7193
Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7152
Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7131
Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7101
Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7203
Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7234
Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7255

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-h ... 1901170322
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎


AUDUSD Analysis: Upward momentum eases

22
AUD/USD Analysis: upward momentum eases, a decline more likely below 0.7155

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7168

  • Aussie to respond to trade war headlines and Chinese growth data.
  • Bulls' conviction will ease further on a break below 0.7155, a relevant Fibonacci support.


The Aussie couldn't grab momentum from positive trade war headlines, neither from solid Wall Street's advance, usually bullish factors for the commodity-related currency that this time, benefited the greenback. The AUD/USD pair spent the week hovering around the 0.7200 level, ending it with modest losses at 0.7165. Attempts to extend gains beyond the 0.7200 level were rejected on approaches to the previous weekly high of 0.7234, as bulls lost conviction on concerns about a global economic slowdown. Not even resurgent oil prices or gold ones were enough to trigger some gains, somehow indicating that the pair could turn south. There are two main factors that could determine the pair's direction at the beginning of the week: trade war headlines and Chinese Q4 GDP. US President Trump said over the weekend that progress has been made with China, although he repeated that there are no plans on lifting tariffs on imports from the Asian country. As for China's growth, the market is expecting a quarterly growth of 1.4%, while the YoY figure is foreseen at 6.4% vs. the previous 6.5%. Worse-than-expected numbers will put risk-off on the table, with the greenback then poised to extend its gains against the AUD.

The pair holds above the 61.8% retracement of its December/January decline at 0.7155, which limits the downside at the time being. The daily chart shows that the 100 DMA heads marginally lower a couple of pips above the mentioned Fibonacci level, while the 20 DMA advances around 0.7110. The Momentum indicator keeps heading north, despite being in overbought territory, although the RSI has already begun easing, now at around 52. In the 4 hours chart, the pair trades within directionless moving averages, the Momentum is directionless around its 100 level, while the RSI eases around 43, all of which skews the risk to the downside.

Support levels: 0.7155 0.7110 0.7070
Resistance levels: 0.7190 0.7220 0.7260

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/aud-u ... eetreports
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎

DislikeAUDUSD hits three-week low on rising calls for RBA rate cut

24
AUD/USD hits three-week low on rising calls for RBA rate cut

  • The currency pair has hit three weeks and could slide further, having charted a lower high earlier this month.
  • AUD/USD is falling fast on growing prospects of RBA rate cut.

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7076; a level last seen on Jan. 4; having carved out a bearish-lower high above 0.72 over the last 10 ten days.

The currency pair fell 0.68 percent yesterday - its biggest single-day drop since Jan. 2 - as an out-of-cycle mortgage rate hike by the National Bank of Australia (NAB) boosted prospects of an RBA rate cut.

Cash rate futures now put the odds of a 25 basis point decrease in the cash rate by November this year as a two-in-three chance, according to Business Insider.

The market narrative is that the hike in variable interest rate mortgages will likely accentuate the housing market slowdown and force the RBA to cut rates.

No wonder, the Australian currency is feeling the pull of gravity. The sell-off could gain further traction if the US-China trade optimism fades. The AUD could see a deeper drop against Sterling as Brexit optimism is boding well for the British currency.

AUD/USD Technical Levels


Overview:
Today Last Price: 0.7084
Today Daily change: -9 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.13%
Today Daily Open: 0.7093

Trends:
Daily SMA20: 0.7128
Daily SMA50: 0.7175
Daily SMA100: 0.7169
Daily SMA200: 0.7304

Levels:
Previous Daily High: 0.7167
Previous Daily Low: 0.708
Previous Weekly High: 0.7226
Previous Weekly Low: 0.7146
Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7113
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7134
Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.706
Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7026
Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6973
Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7147
Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.72
Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7234

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-h ... 1901250147
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎

DislikeAustralian business collapsed at the end of 2018

25
Australian business conditions and profitability collapsed at the end of 2018


  • Australian business conditions deteriorated sharply late last year, tumbling by the most since the height of the GFC. They are now the weakest since late 2014.
  • The deterioration was broad-based across states and industries.
  • New orders declined and business confidence remained below trend, suggesting “conditions are unlikely to rebound”, according to the National Australia Bank.
  • The results fit with other business surveys conducted by the Ai Group and Illion that have also weakened noticeably in recent months.
  • Financial markets currently see around a 60% chance that the RBA will cut rates by the end of the year. We’ll hear a lot from the bank next week.

Australian business conditions deteriorated sharply late last year, tumbling by the most since the height of the GFC.

The National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Australian Business conditions index, contained its broader Business Confidence survey, tumbled to +2 points in December, down sharply from +11 points in November.

It was the biggest one-month drop since the GFC, and left overall business conditions at the weakest level since September 2014.


“Business conditions fell sharply in December, and while caution should be taken when interpreting data around the Christmas/New Year period, this outcome continues the downward trend in conditions over the second half of 2018,” said Alan Oster, Chief Economist at the NAB.

“At face value, the fall over the past six months suggests a significant slowing in the momentum of activity in the business sector — especially from the highs seen earlier in the year.

Making the decline all the more ugly, and worrying, Oster said the deterioration was relatively broad-based, be it by location or sector.

“The deterioration… was driven by declines across trading, profitability and employment, and was relatively broad-based across states and industries,” he said, pointing to the chart below showing the drop in business conditions reported across the country.


“Conditions remain particularly weak in the retail industry which reports further ongoing deterioration.

“Capacity utilisation remains above average, though forward orders are below average and falling. Alongside below average business confidence this suggests conditions are unlikely to rebound.”

As seen in the table below, the three subindexes that comprise the conditions index weakened from November, particularly readings for profitability and trading conditions that fell sharply.


“The result was driven by declines in all sub-indexes with employment falling five points to +4 index points, profitability falling 8 points to 0 index points and trading conditions declining to +7 index points,” Ostar said.

For unemployment looking ahead, the NAB said the employment subindex, at +4 points, signals a slowing in employment growth ahead.

“At face value, the decline in the employment index suggests a slowing in the pace of employment growth to 18,000 per month from 22,000 per month,” Oster said.

While not pointing to dire hiring levels by any stretch, disappointingly, particularly for the RBA and Australian workers, the latest survey pointed to a further easing in wage and inflationary pressures.

“Surveyed measures of prices and wages eased in December. Notably, retail prices were flat in the month,” Oster said.

“Overall, these measures suggest that inflationary pressure remains weak, with final products prices and input prices such as purchase costs and labour costs continuing to track at relatively low levels.”

So no sign that unemployment, even sitting at multi-year lows in December, is doing anything to boost wage and inflationary pressures.

That’s a concern, especially with business confidence, as Oster points out, remaining entrenched at below-average levels at +3 points in the latest survey, unchanged from the level reported in November.

Accompanied by a drop in new orders, Oster says the signals from the December report should be of concern, particularly if maintained or built upon in the months ahead.

“With conditions having weakened notably in December following a trend slowing over the second half of 2018 we will be looking to the next readings from the business survey to confirm if the true underlying pace of business activity has slowed as sharply as the December survey suggests,” Oster says.

“With confidence remaining below average and forward orders having also declined our expectation is that, at the very least, a significant portion of the decline in business conditions will persist.

“If business activity has significantly slowed there could be some implications for the labour market and business capital expenditure (CAPEX) — two important variables whose outlook are critical for our outlook in 2019.


While readings on capacity utilisation and forward hiring held up in the latest survey, the steep, broad-based deterioration in business conditions across the country are unlikely to be welcomed by the RBA, especially as it’s banking upon non-mining business investment and strong labour market conditions to keep Australian GDP growth running above 3% both this year and next.

Unless that eventuates, the RBA’s expectation for a gradual decline in unemployment and gradual lift in wage and inflationary pressures is unlikely to occur, and will only feed into growing expectations that it may have to cut its cash rate further in the year ahead.

Financial markets already see the prospect of a 25 basis point rate cut by the end of this year at around 60%, mirroring the shift in mindset seen from an increasing number of economists who also expect the next move in the cash rate to be lower.

The latest survey was conducted between January 8 to 14, a period when financial markets were recovering sharply from a steep plunge in cyclical assets seen late last year.

The themes of the NAB survey also fit with those seen in separate PMIs on Australia’s manufacturing, services and construction sectors released by the Ai Group earlier this month. They also align with sentiment expressed by Australian business executives in the latest Illion Business Expectations Survey.

Combined, all suggest the momentum in Australia’s business sector is slowing, and fast.

Source: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/aust ... 018-2019-1
These users thanked the author ChuChu Rocket for the post (total 3):
Krelian99, navid110, moey_dw
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎


AUD/USD Analysis: at risk of testing 0.7000

26
AUD/USD Analysis: at risk of testing 0.7000

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7085

  • RBA's policymakers downgraded inflation and growth forecasts for this year.
  • Chinese banks to resume activity after a long week of holidays.


The AUD/USD pair consolidated its losses Friday, recovering from a fresh multi-week high of 0.7060 to close the day below the 0.7100 figure. Aussie's decline was triggered by RBA's Governor Lowe, who said that the case of a rate cut is more balanced with that of a rate hike, amid mounting concerns about the local housing sector. On Friday, the RBA released the Minutes of its latest meeting, which showed that policymakers slashed their GDP and inflation forecasts for this year, triggering the slide to the mentioned low. The later bounce came by the hand of Wall Street, as the US major indexes closed mixed, with only the DJIA in the red and well off its daily low. The lack of progress in US-China trade talks added pressure on the commodity-linked currency.

The daily chart indicates that the decline could continue these upcoming days, s technical indicators resumed their slides on Friday now at levels last seen early January, while the price remains well below all of its moving averages, with the 20 and 100 DMA converging around 0.7170. In the 4 hours chart and for the shorter-term, the risk is also skewed to the downside, as the pair continues developing below a bearish 20 SMA, which crossed below the larger ones, while technical indicators lack directional strength, both in negative ground, the Momentum near its mid-line but the RSI closer to oversold readings, indicating the absence of buying interest.

Support levels: 0.7060 0.7025 0.6980

Resistance levels: 0.7125 0.7160 0.7200

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/aud-u ... eetreports
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎

AUDUSD Technical Analysis: Sellers continue to lurk ahead of 0.7095

27
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Sellers continue to lurk ahead of 0.7095 trend-line resistance

  • While upbeat Australian business survey data propelled the Aussie during early Tuesday, the AUD/USD managed to post a day’s high near 0.7090 on the US President Donald Trump’s comments favoring a likely trade deal between the US and China.
  • However, the sellers continue to lurk ahead of the short-term descending trend-line resistance, at 0.7095, that connects highs marked since last Wednesday.
  • Should the pair cross 0.7095 barrier, its rise to 0.7140 horizontal-line can be expected whereas 0.7170 and a downward sloping resistance-line at 0.7205 may confine additional upside.
  • Alternatively, the 0.7065 and the recent low around 0.7050 seem to be the immediate supports for the pair, a break below which can drag the quote to 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion level of its latest pullback, at 0.7030.
  • In case, the bears manage to conquer 0.7030, 0.7000 and 0.6980 could become their next favorites.

AUD/USD hourly chart
Important levels:

Overview:
Today Last Price: 0.7082
Today Daily change: 18 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.25%
Today Daily Open: 0.7064

Trends:
Daily SMA20: 0.7168
Daily SMA50: 0.7151
Daily SMA100: 0.7167
Daily SMA200: 0.728

Levels:
Previous Daily High: 0.7109
Previous Daily Low: 0.7057
Previous Weekly High: 0.7265
Previous Weekly Low: 0.706
Previous Monthly High: 0.7296
Previous Monthly Low: 0.6684
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7077
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7089
Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7044
Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7025
Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6992
Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7096
Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7129
Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7148

Source; https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-t ... 1902120323
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎

LikeAUDUSD beats falling channel hurdle on above-forecast China exports

28
AUD/USD beats falling channel hurdle on above-forecast China exports

  • The AUD is teasing a falling channel breakout on the hourly chart.
  • China's exports beat estimates by a big margin, imports, however, remained in the negative territory.
  • Aussie could rise toward the highs seen yesterday if the above-forecast Chinese exports put a bid under the equities.

An above-forecast China exports figure is boding well for the Aussie dollar.

AUD/USD is now trading just above the falling channel hurdle of 0.7105, having clocked a high of 0.7114 soon before press time.

China's trade surplus widened to CNY 271.2 billion in January, as exports jumped 13.9 percent year-on-year, beating the estimated figure of 3.8 percent by a big margin. That could be considered a sign of improving demand conditions in the global economy.

Imports, however, dropped 1.9 percent as expected, signaling weakening consumption in the world's second-largest economy.

Even so, the AUD could extend gains if the equity markets cheer the strong exports figure. As of now, the futures on the S&P 500 are flat lined.

Technical Levels

A falling channel breakout would be confirmed if the current hourly candle closes above 0.7105. That would open up upside toward 0.7121 (Feb. 13 high) and 0.7136 (Feb. 12 high). On the downside, support is seen at 0.7100 (50-hour MA) and 0.7085 (previous day's low).


Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-b ... 1902140315
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎

AUDUSD sticks to gains near 0.7100 handle but lacks follow-through

29
AUD/USD sticks to gains near 0.7100 handle but lacks follow-through


  • Australian government downplayed reports of a ban on the country’s coal by a Chinese port.
  • Upbeat comments by RBA’s Lowe/US-China trade optimism provided an additional boost.
  • Subdued USD demand remains supportive of the intraday up-move ahead of Fedspeak.

The AUD/USD pair held on to its positive tone through the early European session, albeit seemed struggling to build on the momentum beyond 200-hour SMA.

The pair caught some bids on the last trading day of the week and recovered a part of the previous session slump to over one-week lows, triggered by reports that China’s Dalian port authorities had banned Australian coal imports. The government, however, downplayed the ban on the country's coal by a Chinese port, which coupled with additional supporting factors eased the bearish pressure, rather helped stage a goodish bounce on Friday.

The US Dollar held on the defensive in wake of Thursday's soft US economic data, which reaffirmed market expectations that the Fed will hold interest rates steady and was evident from a fresh leg of downslide in the US Treasury bond yields. The Aussie further benefitted from upbeat remarks by RBA Governor Lowe, saying that there may be a case for a higher interest rate if the jobless rate drops below the current level of 5%.

This coupled with growing optimism over a possible resolution of the US-China trade spat further underpinned the China-proxy Australian Dollar and remained supportive of the intraday move back above the 0.7100 handle. The world's two biggest economies were reported to be currently outlining a deal and may soon reach an agreement, albeit failed to provide any additional boost.

Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before traders again start positioning for any further near-term appreciating move amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US. However, speeches by influential FOMC members will be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities later during the North-American session.

Technical levels to watch

Overview:
Today Last Price: 0.7106
Today Daily change %: 0.08%
Today Daily Open: 0.71

Trends:
Daily SMA20: 0.7155
Daily SMA50: 0.7133
Daily SMA100: 0.7161
Daily SMA200: 0.7265

Levels:
Previous Daily High: 0.7207
Previous Daily Low: 0.707
Previous Weekly High: 0.7149
Previous Weekly Low: 0.7053
Previous Monthly High: 0.7296
Previous Monthly Low: 0.6684
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7122
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7155
Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7044
Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6988
Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6907
Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7181
Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7263
Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7318

Sources: https://forex-station.com (image) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-s ... 1902221015 (article)
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎

AUDUSD Analysis: China prevents the Aussie from appreciating

30
AUD/USD Analysis: China prevents the Aussie from appreciating

  • AUD/USD Current price: 0.7130
  • RBA Lowe more concerned about slow wages' growth rather than falling housing prices.
  • Risk skewed to the downside, bearish case to lose base only if the price surpasses 0.7250.


The AUD/USD pair seesawed between gains and losses but closed the week unchanged around 0.7130, as positive local data was overshadowed by Chinese news indicating the country has capped coal imports from Australia. The pair advanced Friday as the dollar was out of market's favor, while equities recovered, providing a positive clue to the Aussie. RBA's Governor Lowe testified before a special Committee in the House of Representatives last Friday, saying that weak wages rises poised a higher risk to the economy than falling house prices, indicating that this last is an adjustment after rapidly growing prices a decade ago. The latest employment-related data, however, was quite encouraging, as falling underutilization improves prospects of faster wages' growth in the near term. The Australian and Chinese macroeconomic calendars will be quite scarce this week, leaving the Aussie in the hands of sentiment.

The upside potential for the pair is limited, as, in the daily chart, the 20 and 100 DMA capped advances these last few days, converging around 0.7160, with the pair unable to settle above it. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart bounced modestly but remain within negative levels. In the 4 hours chart, the risk is skewed to the downside, as sellers rejected the latest advance around a bearish 100 SMA, while technical indicators gyrated south, the Momentum retreating from its 100 level and the RSI currently in neutral territory.

Support levels: 0.7105 0.7070 0.7035

Resistance levels: 0.7144 0.7190 0.7235

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/aud-u ... eetreports
Important: The worst forex brokers of all time 👎


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 42 guests