USD news

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USD: Focus On FOMC Minutes; Long USDs Begin To Look Tactically Attractive Here

Barclays Capital Research expect the FOMC minutes from the July meeting on Wednesday to contain hints on the degree of concern that FOMC members have about the state of inflation pressures, as in the last statement the FOMC softened its description of the inflation incoming data.

"The FOMC has also indicated that it is ready to announce the beginning of balance sheet normalization.

As such, the minutes are likely to signal that the official announcement will come at the September FOMC meeting, as is our baseline," Barclays adds.

On the USD front, Barclays expects some rebound late this year and early next year arguing that at current levels, long USD positions are beginning to look attractive from at least a tactical perspective.

source ...

US building permits for July 1223K vs. 1250K estimate

Building permits 1223K vs 1250K est. Last month was was unrevised at 1275K
Building permits are -4.1 percent below the revised June rate, but is +4.1 percent above the July 2016 rate
Single family permits came in at 811K, unchanged from June. Multi family units came in at 377K
Housing starts were 1155K vs 1220K est. Last month was revised lower a tad to 1213K vs 1215K originally reported.
Housing starts are -4.8 percent below the revised June estimate and is -5.6 percent below the July 2016 rate
Single family housing starts came in at 856K, down -0.5% below June 860K. Multi family housing starts came in at 287K

US July Building Permits Fell 4.1%, Housing Starts Register Annual Decline

US building permits declined 4.1% for July to an annualised rate of 1.22mn from a revised 1.28mn in June which was originally reported as 1.25mn. This was below consensus forecasts of a figure close to 1.25mn, although there was still an annual increase of 4.1%.

Single-family permits were unchanged on the month at 811,000 and there a decline in permits for buildings designed for 5 or more families after the strong recovery seen in June.

US Industrial production up 0.2% vs 0.3%

The Industrial production headline has been released early it seems with the number coming in at 0.2% vs 0.3% estimate.
The Capacity Utilization is at 76.7% vs 76.7% estimate.
Manufacturing production -0.1% vs +0.2% estimate
Mining output +0.5%
Utilities +1.6%
Motor vehicle assembly rate 10.29M units/year
industrial output ex cars and parts +0.4%

New York Fed Nowcast Q3 tracking forecast rises to 2.1% from 2.0%

Tracking estimate rises

The New York Fed's GDP tracking estimate for Q3 has climbed to the highest since it was initiated in the first week of June.

"Positive surprises from retail sales, survey, and industrial production data outweighed negative surprises from housing data," the New York Fed said in the release.

Re: USD news

Gross Domestic Product news is still 3 days away with a forecast of 4.0 but rumor has it 4.8% GDP print for Q2 (Bullish USD).
The focus this week will be trade talks with EU/Trump tomorrow and USD GDP news this Friday.
USD market sentiment will be bullish all the way until Friday's GDP news.

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Re: USD news

Reminder: Gross Domestic Product news today with a forecast of 4.0 but rumor has it 4.8% GDP print for Q2 (Bullish USD).

Dollar Index
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FOMC minutes boost USD

FOMC minutes boost USD while peripheral yields surge due to Italy

The release of September FOMC minutes, which reaffirmed its commitment to further policy normalization and a potential willingness to overshoot neutral levels of interest rates, boosted the US 10Y Treasury yield (+4bps). However, the UST 10Y yield inched down while the USD appreciated against its major peers, with the sole exception of the JPY.

Read more: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fomc- ... eetreports
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USD/CAD jumps to six-week high

USD/CAD jumps to six-week high after soft retail sales and CPI


USD/CAD hit a fresh six week high above 1.3100 after surprisingly weak retail sales and CPI numbers. Retail sales fell 0.4% ex autos in August compared to a 0.1% rise expected. CPI was also down 0.4% m/m compared to a 0.1% rise expected.

The move in the currency was swift as USD/CAD jumped as high as 1.3120 from 1.3035 before the data.

The softer numbers ease pressure on the Bank of Canada to deliver a hawkish message at Wednesday's meeting. A hike is still priced as a virtual certainty but the market is struggling to handicap what comes next.

Read more: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/usdcad ... i-20181019
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USD set to pull back next week?

Can the Dollar Draw from EURUSD, USDJPY to Return to 15 Month Highs?


- Dollar advance more of a drift than a committed charge
- Bulls will need to depend on EURUSD and USDJPY to leverage more technical enthusiasm

Technical Forecast for US Dollar: Bearish
The US Dollar earned another swing higher this past session, saving the currency from sinking deeper into a broad October correction and potentially moving the currency into position to complete a head-and-shoulders position. On shorter term charts, the DXY index offers up a ‘stair step’ climb through the middle of the week that gook advantage of the congestion that developed around 95.00. That psychological figure happened to represent the midpoint of the September 21st to October 9th charge. As far as technical weight goes, this was not a particularly robust figure, but it gained influence due to the general market conditions. The retreat from the currency that preceded the bounce carried limited momentum. In contrast, the resistance in the 96.20-96.00 area has grown in notoriety as this past week’s turn has established a triple top. If a strong bid for the Dollar forms in the more liquid crosses, this ceiling will not hold back a meaningful tide. However, if trading conditions continue to show preference for range and ‘path-of-least-resistance’ movement, it will likely prove sufficient for bulls to take profit or opportunist bears to jump back in for a short-term swing.


Aside from the general state of market conditions that continue to work against serious progress from a Dollar rally is the context of the bigger picture. From the daily and weekly charts of the DXY, it isn’t difficult to spot the head-and-shoulders pattern that has formed since mid-May. With last week’s bounce, the market put off the completion of the ‘right shoulder’ which would have been solidified if we returned to the ‘neckline’ around 94.00. However, this detour does not obviate the pattern. The left shoulder shows the level of distortion that can occur as the general pattern forms – technicals are not always pretty. Pushing above 96.00 is certainly a possibility, but conviction should be reserved until the benchmark makes a serious bid to overtake 97.00. Above that threshold, we could return to making progress on a much larger reversal pattern that seemed to trigger in August but with subsequent retreat into September seemed to signal a false break stall. It’s a possible course, but trading the range from 97.00 to 94.00 is requires far less conviction.


Gauging the appetites of the speculative rank, there remains a distinct skew in futures positioning. The net positioning derived from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report below shows the leveling out of appetites following the dramatic charge of bullish interest (and short covering) in the three months through August. While not necessarily a short-term leading indicator, it aligns to the momentum considerations that can side track intentions to plow through technical boundaries standing in the markets way and in turn make those modest hurdles neigh insurmountable. It is possible that this is a pause in a broader advance, but that will prove more difficult to facilitate. Recent history suggests the pull of unwinding will grow following the consolidation.


Important in determining next moves for the Dollar is establishing the unique pressures leveraged through its counterparts. While the Greenback is by far the most liquid of the major currencies, it is not always the most proactive of its peers. It too can drift and fall victim to the determination of large counterparts. Given the general status of the currency’s standings both on a trade-weighted (DXY) and equally-weighted basis, it looks readily exposed to the shove of an active cross. At the top of the liquidity hierarchy, EURUSD is looks much like the Dollar’s self-determined picture. Here, the right shoulder of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern was pushed when we dropped below 1.1525 earlier in the month. However, the influence of the bigger picture’s restraint still exudes. It so happens that 1.1450 is the rough mid-point to the 2017-2018 bull trend, but I don’t think this carries any greater weight than the August swing low of 1.1300. There are no pressing levels from which traders can recharge speculation intent at the moment.


One step down in liquidity, the USDJPY may present one of the more idealized sources to supply a bullish swell for the Greenback. After the retreat of the past few weeks – which included a six-consecutive session retreat that matched the longest slide since May 2017 – we found the pair stabilize the confluence of technical points anchored by the rising trendline that originated with the March swing low. A rebound from this pair represents a path of least resistance paired with a recent buoyance in volatility that has supplied significant swings in the past few months. If there is to be a Dollar bid that spills over to the wider market, this would be one of the more practical sources to expect it.


Source: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical ... Highs.html
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