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June US non-farm payrolls 222K vs 178K expected

  • Prior was 138K (revised to 152K)
  • Two-month net revision +47K
  • Private payrolls +187K vs +170K exp
  • Manufacturing payrolls +1K vs +5K exp
  • Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.3% exp
  • Participation rate 62.8% vs 62.7% exp
  • Prior participation rate 62.7%
  • Underemployment rate 8.6% vs 8.4% prior

June US retail sales -0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected

June US retail sales lower than expectations
  • Prior was -0.1% (Revised up from -0.3%)
  • Ex autos -0.2% vs +0.1% exp
  • Prior ex auto -0.3% (unrevised)
  • Ex autos and gas -0.1% vs +0.4% exp
  • Control group -0.1% vs +0.3% exp

New York July Empire Manufacturing Index Declines To 9.8, Outlook Remains Firm

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Survey declined to 9.8 for July from 19.8 previously. This was below consensus expectations of 15.0, although it was the second successive positive reading and the fourth-strongest reading of the past two years with the data still indicating firm growth.

There was a significant retreat in the shipments index to 10.5 from 22.3 previously.

US building permits for June 1254K vs. 1201K estimate

US building permits for June were better than expected at 1254k vs 1201K. The prior month was revised higher to 1122K vs 1092K initially reported
The housing starts were also higher at 1215K vs 1160 est. The prior month came in at 1168K
Single family permits were higher by 4.1% to 811K
Multi family were up 13.9% to 443K
Single family starts up 6.3% to 849K
Multi family starts were up 13.3% to 366K

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate comes in at 2.5%

2nd quarter GDP estimate moves up from the estimate low of 2.4%
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q2 rose to 2.5% from a low estimate of 2.4% on July 14th. The high water mark was the first estimate at 4.3%.

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