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US initial jobless claims 241K vs. 240K estimate

  • US initial jobless claims come in at 241K vs 240K estimate
  • 4 week average for initial jobless claims 244.75 vs 243.25
  • Continuing claims 1944K vs 1928K est.
  • The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending June 10 were in California (+6,409), Pennsylvania (+5,305), Florida (+2,398), Texas (+1,922), and Georgia (+1,569),
  • The largest decreases were in Tennessee (-1,036), Arkansas (-956), Ohio (-829), Missouri (-541), and New Mexico (-419).

June Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Declines To 15.0, Output Growth Slides

The Dallas Federal Reserve Texas manufacturing outlook general outlook index declined to 15.0 for June from 17.2 the previous month.

The production index declined sharply to 12.3 from 23.3 the previous month while the new orders index retreated to 9.6 from 18.1 in May and the shipments index deteriorated. There was also a significant slowdown in the rate of orders growth and unfilled orders which will tend to curb production growth over the next few months.

US initial jobless claims for June 24 week 244K vs 240K estimate

Continuing claims 1948K vs. 1935K estimate
The US initial jobless claims came in close to expectations at 244K vs 240K estimate. The prior week was revised to 242K from 241K initially reported. The 4-week moving average dipped to 242.25K vs 245K revised. The claims data is remaining steady at the lower levels.

May core PCE +1.4% y/y vs +1.4% expected

Details of the May personal consumption expenditure report
  • Prior was 1.5%
  • Core +0.1% m/m vs +0.1% expected
  • Prior core +0.2% m/m (revised to +0.1%)
  • PCE deflator +1.4% y/y vs +1.5% expected
  • Prior PCE deflator +1.7% y/y

Fed Minutes: Recent Data Had Little Bearing On Underlying Inflation

At the June Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, interest rates were increased by a further 0.25% to 1.00-1.25%.

According to the minutes, most policymakers stated that the recent softness of inflation readings had little bearing on underlying inflation trends. Several members also saw recent increases in import prices as consistent with inflation rising over the medium term.

Several members, however, were concerned that recent softness in inflation might persist due to limited pass-through from resource utilisation.

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