Re: USD news

1
Gross Domestic Product news is still 3 days away with a forecast of 4.0 but rumor has it 4.8% GDP print for Q2 (Bullish USD).
The focus this week will be trade talks with EU/Trump tomorrow and USD GDP news this Friday.
USD market sentiment will be bullish all the way until Friday's GDP news.

Dollar Index
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Re: USD news

2
Reminder: Gross Domestic Product news today with a forecast of 4.0 but rumor has it 4.8% GDP print for Q2 (Bullish USD).

Dollar Index
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An easy trick for drawing Support & Resistance

FOMC minutes boost USD

3
FOMC minutes boost USD while peripheral yields surge due to Italy

The release of September FOMC minutes, which reaffirmed its commitment to further policy normalization and a potential willingness to overshoot neutral levels of interest rates, boosted the US 10Y Treasury yield (+4bps). However, the UST 10Y yield inched down while the USD appreciated against its major peers, with the sole exception of the JPY.

Read more: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fomc- ... eetreports
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An easy trick for drawing Support & Resistance

USD/CAD jumps to six-week high

4
USD/CAD jumps to six-week high after soft retail sales and CPI


USD/CAD hit a fresh six week high above 1.3100 after surprisingly weak retail sales and CPI numbers. Retail sales fell 0.4% ex autos in August compared to a 0.1% rise expected. CPI was also down 0.4% m/m compared to a 0.1% rise expected.

The move in the currency was swift as USD/CAD jumped as high as 1.3120 from 1.3035 before the data.

The softer numbers ease pressure on the Bank of Canada to deliver a hawkish message at Wednesday's meeting. A hike is still priced as a virtual certainty but the market is struggling to handicap what comes next.

Read more: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/usdcad ... i-20181019
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USD set to pull back next week?

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Can the Dollar Draw from EURUSD, USDJPY to Return to 15 Month Highs?

TALKING POINTS:

- Dollar advance more of a drift than a committed charge
- Bulls will need to depend on EURUSD and USDJPY to leverage more technical enthusiasm

Technical Forecast for US Dollar: Bearish
The US Dollar earned another swing higher this past session, saving the currency from sinking deeper into a broad October correction and potentially moving the currency into position to complete a head-and-shoulders position. On shorter term charts, the DXY index offers up a ‘stair step’ climb through the middle of the week that gook advantage of the congestion that developed around 95.00. That psychological figure happened to represent the midpoint of the September 21st to October 9th charge. As far as technical weight goes, this was not a particularly robust figure, but it gained influence due to the general market conditions. The retreat from the currency that preceded the bounce carried limited momentum. In contrast, the resistance in the 96.20-96.00 area has grown in notoriety as this past week’s turn has established a triple top. If a strong bid for the Dollar forms in the more liquid crosses, this ceiling will not hold back a meaningful tide. However, if trading conditions continue to show preference for range and ‘path-of-least-resistance’ movement, it will likely prove sufficient for bulls to take profit or opportunist bears to jump back in for a short-term swing.


Aside from the general state of market conditions that continue to work against serious progress from a Dollar rally is the context of the bigger picture. From the daily and weekly charts of the DXY, it isn’t difficult to spot the head-and-shoulders pattern that has formed since mid-May. With last week’s bounce, the market put off the completion of the ‘right shoulder’ which would have been solidified if we returned to the ‘neckline’ around 94.00. However, this detour does not obviate the pattern. The left shoulder shows the level of distortion that can occur as the general pattern forms – technicals are not always pretty. Pushing above 96.00 is certainly a possibility, but conviction should be reserved until the benchmark makes a serious bid to overtake 97.00. Above that threshold, we could return to making progress on a much larger reversal pattern that seemed to trigger in August but with subsequent retreat into September seemed to signal a false break stall. It’s a possible course, but trading the range from 97.00 to 94.00 is requires far less conviction.


Gauging the appetites of the speculative rank, there remains a distinct skew in futures positioning. The net positioning derived from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report below shows the leveling out of appetites following the dramatic charge of bullish interest (and short covering) in the three months through August. While not necessarily a short-term leading indicator, it aligns to the momentum considerations that can side track intentions to plow through technical boundaries standing in the markets way and in turn make those modest hurdles neigh insurmountable. It is possible that this is a pause in a broader advance, but that will prove more difficult to facilitate. Recent history suggests the pull of unwinding will grow following the consolidation.


Important in determining next moves for the Dollar is establishing the unique pressures leveraged through its counterparts. While the Greenback is by far the most liquid of the major currencies, it is not always the most proactive of its peers. It too can drift and fall victim to the determination of large counterparts. Given the general status of the currency’s standings both on a trade-weighted (DXY) and equally-weighted basis, it looks readily exposed to the shove of an active cross. At the top of the liquidity hierarchy, EURUSD is looks much like the Dollar’s self-determined picture. Here, the right shoulder of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern was pushed when we dropped below 1.1525 earlier in the month. However, the influence of the bigger picture’s restraint still exudes. It so happens that 1.1450 is the rough mid-point to the 2017-2018 bull trend, but I don’t think this carries any greater weight than the August swing low of 1.1300. There are no pressing levels from which traders can recharge speculation intent at the moment.


One step down in liquidity, the USDJPY may present one of the more idealized sources to supply a bullish swell for the Greenback. After the retreat of the past few weeks – which included a six-consecutive session retreat that matched the longest slide since May 2017 – we found the pair stabilize the confluence of technical points anchored by the rising trendline that originated with the March swing low. A rebound from this pair represents a path of least resistance paired with a recent buoyance in volatility that has supplied significant swings in the past few months. If there is to be a Dollar bid that spills over to the wider market, this would be one of the more practical sources to expect it.


Source: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical ... Highs.html
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USD/JPY Dips below 50-hour EMA

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Dips below 50-hour EMA as S&P 500 futures drop 0.5%

- The USD/JPY cut through rising trendline support earlier today, the hourly chart shows and is now trading below the 50-hour exponential moving average (EMA) of 112.63.
- The anti-risk JPY seems to have picked up a bid, courtesy of a 0.55 percent drop in the S&P 500 futures.
- The key EMAs are biased toward the bulls - 50-hour, 100-hour and 100-hour EMAs are trending north. More importantly, the stacking order of the 50-hour EMA, above the 100-hour EMA, above the 200-hour EMA is a classic bull signal.
- Further, the pair closed well above 112.73 yesterday, signaling a revival of the recovery rally from the recent low of 111.62. Hence, the spot could bounce off the 200-hour EMA of 112.54.
- However, the support at 112.54 would be breached if the risk aversion worsens. Also, a daily close below 112.73 would weaken the odds of a rally to 113.18.

Spot Rate: 112.57

Daily High: 112.84

Daily Low: 112.55

Trend: Bullish


Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-t ... 1810230235
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7.00 important level in USD/CNY

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China said to view 7.00 as "important" level in USD/CNY, likely to intervene to stop rapid yuan fall

According to a Reuters source
Saying that Chinese authorities are viewing the 7.00 threshold to be an important one for the pair and that they would likely intervene to stop a rapid fall in the yuan. USD/CNY touched a decade high earlier in the day but soon after gave back those gains and moved lower.

It is now trading very much flat on the day and the comments here should keep buyers in-check for the time being, until the next PBOC fixing allows for a move higher that is.


Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/china- ... l-20181026


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Breaking: US GDP beats with 3.5%

9
Breaking News: US GDP beats with 3.5%, USD looks strong

The US was expected to report annualized GDP growth of 3.3% in the Q3 2018, slower than 4.2% in Q2, which was the highest in four years.

The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen were marching forward ahead of the publication amid the sell-off in stock markets. Concerns about the Brexit impasse, the clash between Italy and the European Commission, the Fed's hawkish policy, and tariffs all weigh on equities and investors are flocking into safe-haven assets.

A stronger-than-expected reading helps US futures bounce modestly, limiting USD gains across the board. Investors considering whether to keep buying the greenback or take profits out of the table ahead of the weekend.

Keep an eye on stocks.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics ... icator/gdp
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USD/JPY tests broken trend line

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USDJPY tests underside of broken trend line

The USDJPY fell below its 100 day MA and tested a swing target at 111.39. That is where the selling stalled.


Getting back above the 100 day MA (see 5- minute chart) turned the tide back to the upside.


The rally has taken the price back to the underside of the broken trend line on the daily chart at 112.09. That is stalling the rally here, and is the next target to get above if the bulls are run more.

Stocks are slowly moving back toward the unchanged area, but is still down on the day. S&P is back in the black for the year above 2673 (trade at 2688 now) but is down -0.65%. The Nasdaq is odwn -0.56% but Alphabet which was down 5-6% (I think around there) is now up on the day. Amazon is still down $89 or -5% but well off the low at $1603 (trades at $1678)

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... e-20181026
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