- The British Pound is feeling the pull of gravity on Telegraph report.
- The GBP/USD is back below 1.30, having hit a high of 1.3023 earlier today.
The British Pound is witnessing a solid two-way business in Asia.
The currency pair found bids in early Asian in response to a Sunday Times report stating that Prime Minister May has planned an all-UK customs deal with the EU, which would resolve the Irish border issue.
The optimism, however, was short-lived as May's office dismissed that report as speculation. Further, the Telegraph reported that British Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab on Tuesday privately demanded the right to pull Britain out of a "backstop" arrangement for the Irish border after three months. That pitch may not be acceptable to the European Union.
These conflicting reports are complicating matters for the GBP traders. At press time, the currency pair is trading at 1.2990, having clocked a high and low of 1.3023 and 1.2986, respectively.
The psychological level of 1.30 has been put to test since Thursday, but a convincing close above that level has so far remained elusive.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
Last Price: 1.2992
Daily change: 24 pips
Daily change: 0.185%
Daily Open: 1.2968
Daily SMA20: 1.3003
Daily SMA50: 1.3021
Daily SMA100: 1.3042
Daily SMA200: 1.343
Daily High: 1.3042
Daily Low: 1.2952
Weekly High: 1.3042
Weekly Low: 1.2696
Monthly High: 1.326
Monthly Low: 1.2696
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2986
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3008
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2932
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2896
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2841
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3023
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3078
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3114
The GBP/USD's intraday action over the last twenty-four hours has seen the pair clip into a new near-term high near 1.3175, but the pair has faded back heading into Thursday's main trading sessions, digging in just north of the 1.3100 handle.
GBP/USD analysis: Brexit optimism overshadows it all
Over the past week, the Cable has lifted firmly on rising hopes for a successful Brexit negotiation, with yet another key self-imposed deadline of this Friday expected to reveal any kind of last-minute deal in proceedings, and the GBP has been bolstered by hopes for a last-minute deal, and the Cable has been rising in a healthy uptrend, lifting from the 200-period moving average.
The Cable has pushed into a bullish reversal, crossing the 200-hour moving average and keeping bid above the 50-hour moving average near the 1.3100 handle.
Last Price: 1.3134
Daily change: -3.0 pips
Daily change: -0.0228%
Daily Open: 1.3137
Daily SMA20: 1.2996
Daily SMA50: 1.3031
Daily SMA100: 1.3039
Daily SMA200: 1.3414
Daily High: 1.3176
Daily Low: 1.3074
Weekly High: 1.3042
Weekly Low: 1.2696
Monthly High: 1.326
Monthly Low: 1.2696
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3137
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3112
Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3082
Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3027
Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.298
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3184
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3231
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3286
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-t ... 1811080651
Economic growth data for the UK Q3 of 2018
Based on our forecasts for flat industrial production, a small 0.1% rise in service sector output and a modest rebound in construction output, GDP would rise by 0.1% in September. That would in turn imply a 0.6% q-o-q growth rate for Q3. While it would take a material downside surprise to the monthly rate to yield something weaker than 0.6% q-o-q, only a small upside surprise could easily push growth up to 0.7% during the quarter relative to our 0.6% view.
Also, Nomura on IP:
The manufacturing PMI and CBI surveys held up reasonably well in September before falling in October; however, car production (worth just 6½% of total industrial production and about 9% of manufacturing) was weak during September according to the SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) figures. We forecast a flat manufacturing reading, but the risk is that weak auto production ends up dominating the figures.
GDP preview via RBC:
The UK economy looks set to avoid the 'weaker momentum' that afflicted the euro area in Q3 … and instead we expect growth to accelerate from Q2's 0.4% q/q to 0.6% q/q. Even though growth was flat m/m in August, the July expansion of 0.4% m/m meant that the quarter got off to a very strong start as the good summer weather boosted consumer spending and construction activity. This first release of quarterly GDP now comes with an expenditure breakdown which we expect to show household consumption and investment being the major contributors to third quarter growth.
Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/previe ... 8-20181109
- Cable stays weak near 1.30 post-UK data on Friday.
- UK’s advanced Q3 GDP matched previous estimates at 0.6% QoQ.
- Brexit negotiation remains the key driver for Sterling.
The selling bias around the British Pound remains well and sound during the second half of the week, although some decent contention turned up in the sub-1.30 area for GBP/USD, session lows.
GBP/USD looks to Brexit headlines for direction
Cable is down for the second consecutive session so far at the end of the week, coming under further downside pressure mainly in response to the lack of progress in the UK-EU Brexit negotiations.
Today’s UK data have lent some support to the Sterling after preliminary Q3 GDP figures now see the economy expanding 0.6% QoQ and 1.5% on a yearly basis, matching forecasts.
Further UK data saw Industrial Production coming in flat inter-month in September and Manufacturing Production expanding 0.2%. In addition, the trade deficit shrunk to 9.73 billion in September, bettering estimates.
GBP/USD levels to consider
As of writing, the pair is losing 0.44% at 1.3005 and a breakdown of 1.2989 (21-day SMA) would open the door to 1.2959 (10-day SMA) and finally 1.2921 (low Oct.4). On the upside, the next hurdle is located at 1.3176 (high Nov.7) seconded by 1.3259 (high Oct.12) and then 1.3299 (high Sep.20).
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-c ... 1811090953
LONDON (Reuters) - Four British ministers who back remaining in the European Union are on the verge of quitting Theresa May’s government over Brexit, the Sunday Times reported, as pressures built on the prime minister from all sides.
The newspaper also said that the European Union had rejected May’s plan for an independent mechanism to oversee Britain’s departure from any temporary customs arrangement it agrees. The newspaper sourced the development to British sources, and not sources in the EU team.
May is trying to hammer out the final details of the British divorce deal but the talks have become stuck over how the two sides can prevent a hard border from being required in Ireland.
Britain has proposed a UK-wide temporary customs arrangement with the EU to resolve the issue but Brexiteers in her party want London to have the final say on when that arrangement would end, to prevent it from being tied indefinitely to the bloc.
A senior cabinet minister was quoted in the paper as saying: “This is the moment she has to face down Brussels and make it clear to them that they need to compromise, or we will leave without a deal.”
An EU diplomat told Reuters earlier on Saturday that they were cautiously hopeful that an EU summit could happen in November to endorse the deal but that the volatile situation in Britain made it very difficult to predict.
Other EU diplomats said several issues remained unresolved.
May is expected to meet with her cabinet this week to set out her plans for the divorce deal. She was dealt a blow on Friday when junior minister Jo Johnston, who voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum, quit over her plan.
To add to the pressure, a leading member of a group of Brexiteer lawmakers in parliament joined with the Brexit spokesman for the small Northern Irish party that props up May’s party in government to warn that they could not vote for the deal as it currently stands.
Steve Baker, a former junior Brexit minister who resigned over May’s so-called Chequers proposals on Brexit, and Sammy Wilson of the DUP wrote in the Sunday Telegraph newspaper that they could not back a deal if it treated Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the country.
Trump, Macron agree on European defence after army spat
May had been expected to hold a vote in parliament on her deal before the end of the year.
A spokeswoman for May’s Downing Street office said the talks were going down to the wire. “The prime minister has always said these negotiations are tough and toughest in the final stages.
“The prime minister has told colleagues this week we should aim to conclude the withdrawal agreement as soon as possible but we will not do that at any cost.”
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKCN1NF0RS
• A subdued USD price action helps stage a modest rebound after the overnight slump.
• Mixed UK labour market report does little to provide any meaningful impetus.
• Brexit uncertainties might continue to keep a lid on any strong recovery move.
The GBP/USD pair held on to its goodish recovery gains near the 1.2900 handle and had a rather muted reaction to the mixed UK labour market report.
The pair stalled last week's sharp retracement slide from the 1.3175 region and caught some bids on Tuesday, snapping three consecutive days of losing streak. With investors still digesting the latest negative Brexit headlines, a subdued US Dollar price action was seen as one of the key factors behind the pair's initial rebound.
The pair, however, failed to capitalize on the positive momentum and moved little after the latest UK employment details showed that average earnings data (excluding bonus) recorded a growth of 3.2% during the past three months to September.
The reading was better than 3.1% growth expected and an upwardly revised 2.8% previous, albeit was largely negated by an unexpected rise in the UK unemployment rate, coming in at 4.1% 3m/y in September as compared to 4.0% previous and expected.
Adding to the disappointment, the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits jumped by 20.2K in October as against 4.3K rise anticipated and an upwardly revised reading of 23.2K in the previous month.
It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to build on the positive momentum or runs into some fresh supply at higher levels amid persistent Brexit uncertainties, given that the likelihood of an EU Brexit summit might have been pushed to December 13-14.
Technical levels to watch
Any subsequent up-move is likely to confront fresh supply near the 1.2945-50 region, above which a bout of short-covering could lift the pair further towards reclaiming the key 1.30 psychological mark. On the flip side, the 1.2845 level now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken is likely to accelerate the fall further towards challenging the 1.2800 round figure mark.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-c ... 1811130945