.

Re: EUR/USD

#711
The move north is clearly continuing and I think we will see EUR/USD rallying above 1.1050.


Re: EUR/USD

#712
EUR/USD rallied above 1.1050 and reached the resistance at 1.1085 but whether it will break out above that too remains to be seen.

Re: EUR/USD

#713
It formed a spinning top below 1.1085 but that does not necessarily mean a reversal. The move to the upside may still continue.

Re: EUR/USD

#715
Sideways consolidation continues for now. It looks like it will be another slow Monday for this pair.


Re: EUR/USD

#716
The move south may not be over after all, considering the candlesticks it is forming on the daily time-frame.

EURUSD sellers look to seize near-term control ahead of ECB policy decision tomorrow

#717
EUR/USD sellers look to seize near-term control ahead of ECB policy decision tomorrow

EUR/USD falls to a session low of 1.1018

eur-usd-9-11-2019-6-00-37-pm.png

It has been a quiet session overall but the euro has steadily inched lower in the European morning amid continued focus that the ECB will be delivering a stimulus package at tomorrow's monetary policy meeting.

Currently, price is looking towards the 200-hour MA (blue line) @ 1.1014 after sellers managed a break of the 100-hour MA (red line) earlier today. If they can break below the former, that puts them back in near-term control ahead of the ECB tomorrow.

The price action above suggests that we could see some short covering (sell the rumour, buy the fact) in the event the ECB delivers a more "expected" outcome. That said, any immediate reaction to the decision will depend on the magnitude of rate cuts (10 or 20 bps) and any imminent QE announcement as well.

As it stands, markets are on the fence on the former while there is significant expectations that the central bank should deliver something on QE tomorrow.

I reckon failure to announce a restart of QE may see the euro rise initially due to a relief rally and further short covering but the material impact on what that means for the euro will take more time to play out.

The lack of a strong stimulus package may not necessarily be a good thing as it will do little to bolster economic confidence and inflation expectations. As mentioned yesterday, it's essentially a "go big or go home" play for the ECB at this stage.

If they aren't going to "go big", markets may eventually view the decision tomorrow as a disappointment and the euro's relief rally may end on a more sour note in the big picture.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... w-20190911
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EURUSD Drops as ECB announces cut deposit facility rate by 10 bps to -0.50%

#719
mlawson71 wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:33 am
It did move to the downside, but let's see whether it will break out below 1.0925 too.
Are you shorting EURUSD? :)

EURUSD Drops as ECB announces cut deposit facility rate by 10 bps to -0.50%

Euro weaker, bonds surge as the ECB reintroduces QE

9-12-2019-7-56-41-pm.png

I'll try to keep this short and concise. So, what was announced by the ECB today?

  1. A 10 bps cut to the deposit facility rate
  2. A rate tiering system
  3. Change in forward guidance (dropped date-based forward guidance)
  4. Reintroduction of QE (€20 billion per month) starting 1 November

So far, the initial market reaction is as what you would see with the euro weaker on the more or less "expected" stimulus package. The initial knee-jerk reaction was a move higher before a whipsaw back lower in the single currency.

On the balance of things, it is a dovish decision but I reckon the move lower in the euro could also be in part tied back to markets not having confidence that this is enough to bolster economic confidence and/or inflation expectations.

But we'll see, there's still Draghi's press conference and time after that to let the dust settle before we get more clarity.

Elsewhere, equities are moving higher on the easing decision and the introduction of the rate tiering system is helping to lift bank stocks as well.

Meanwhile, bonds are loving the QE news as yields tumble across the board where we're seeing even Italian 10-year bond yields hit a record lower of 0.77%. Treasury yields are much firmer across the board as well and that is putting a bid in the yen with USD/JPY falling to 107.70 levels currently.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/how-ar ... n-20190912
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