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Thought Provoking

Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2024 1:24 am
by Piphunterss
Hi Guys I want to Understand the true Meaning of Support and Resistance / Supply Demand i know there are tons of indicators available plus trader can manually draw supply demand but as i traded more and more i felt these levels never hold in expansion hwhen market expand with trend , so Question is what is the true criteria of supply demand zones in Forex , other previous week day and month .

Re: Thought Provoking

Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2024 10:51 am
by Jimmy
Piphunterss wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 1:24 am Hi Guys I want to Understand the true Meaning of Support and Resistance / Supply Demand i know there are tons of indicators available plus trader can manually draw supply demand but as i traded more and more i felt these levels never hold in expansion hwhen market expand with trend , so Question is what is the true criteria of supply demand zones in Forex , other previous week day and month .
In trading, Supply and Demand "zones" are a more advanced version of horizontal Support and Resistance lines and are based on the areas created by rallies to the upside (distributions) and price drops (accumulations). A supply zone is an area where there is a lot of selling activity, and a demand zone is where there is a lot of buying activity.

From a technical standpoint, in all my years of trading, Supply and Demand zones as well as horizontal support and resistance are only good for counter-trend scalping and making quick profit, I'm talking about a quick few ticks or pips on majors and that's it.

If you're just starting off as a trader and have a solid trend trading strategy already, it's only good to mark the higher timeframe's Supply and Demand zones for reference if:
  • You're eying out short-term tops and bottoms on lower timeframes
  • Looking at exiting swing positions that are already in profit and heading towards these "zones"
Round numbers also. But if you're swing trading strong trends on big timeframes such as the 4H, Daily, Weekly and Monthly try not to focus those zones as it will cast fear and doubt in your positions.

You are right, if the market is moving there's just no stopping it.

When I was working as a bond trader we never even drew any lines or support and resistance on our charts. Even though we were using a process called Market Making (pretty much scalping in both directions) I cannot remember a time where my colleagues or I discussed any major support and resistance areas coming up.

To give you an idea on what our screens looked like, here's a screenshot of my work desktop. One monitor, one trading platform and a DOM ladder with black and white bar chart minimized behind it just for reference.

No supply and demand zones here!

Re: Thought Provoking

Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2024 7:18 pm
by moey_dw
Piphunterss wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 1:24 am Hi Guys I want to Understand the true Meaning of Support and Resistance / Supply Demand i know there are tons of indicators available plus trader can manually draw supply demand but as i traded more and more i felt these levels never hold in expansion hwhen market expand with trend , so Question is what is the true criteria of supply demand zones in Forex , other previous week day and month .
Jimmy wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 10:51 am From a technical standpoint, in all my years of trading, Supply and Demand zones as well as horizontal support and resistance are only good for scalping and making quick profit, I'm talking about a quick few points or 10 pips on majors and that's it.
Oh yeah agreed..... 💯👍☝️

This whole support resistance or supply demand (the fancy term) can wreck your trading when beginning so do not build a system solely on this and youtube educators!!!

Re: Thought Provoking

Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2024 10:25 pm
by Ogee
Piphunterss wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 1:24 am Hi Guys I want to Understand the true Meaning of Support and Resistance / Supply Demand i know there are tons of indicators available plus trader can manually draw supply demand but as i traded more and more i felt these levels never hold in expansion hwhen market expand with trend , so Question is what is the true criteria of supply demand zones in Forex , other previous week day and month .
S&R levels are not an indicator as such but more a warning that price is entering a potential area of increased volatility and you should have a plan for any of the 3 possible outcomes. Sudden price reversal, sudden price breakthrough or price entering a phase of consolidation. Of course that can happen anywhere but based on previous events there is the increased possibility of lurking unfilled orders at these levels.

The real question is how to play S&R levels. Trying to play major reversals is not for the faint hearted or novice. Price often fluctuates at these levels instead of reversing. Major reversal traders tend to have a low win rate but aim for a high reward:risk ratio if it goes well.

The easier strategy is not to try to predict what will happen but rather to anticipate what could happen. Price will either reverse or breakout or consolidate. Try applying the 'Wyckoff method' (Google it), after some consolidation (even if just on the lower time frames) price will kick off in one direction, wait for the retest, then wait for the retest to fail. That's when you want to jump in (look for increasing volume as others do the same). Be in for the ride to the next significant level (range expansion).

Because S&R levels can often be a battleground between buyers and sellers what you want to avoid is getting caught out buying with price heading up into resistance or selling with price heading down into support.

Instead think to be buying with price heading up and away from support or selling with price heading down and away from resistance.

Hope this helps.

Re: Thought Provoking

Posted: Fri Oct 25, 2024 7:30 am
by Piphunterss
Jimmy wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 10:51 am In trading, Supply and Demand "zones" are a more advanced version of horizontal Support and Resistance lines and are based on the areas created by rallies to the upside (distributions) and price drops (accumulations). A supply zone is an area where there is a lot of selling activity, and a demand zone is where there is a lot of buying activity.

From a technical standpoint, in all my years of trading, Supply and Demand zones as well as horizontal support and resistance are only good for counter-trend scalping and making quick profit, I'm talking about a quick few ticks or pips on majors and that's it.

If you're just starting off as a trader and have a solid trend trading strategy already, it's only good to mark the higher timeframe's Supply and Demand zones for reference if:
  • You're eying out short-term tops and bottoms on lower timeframes
  • Looking at exiting swing positions that are already in profit and heading towards these "zones"
Round numbers also. But if you're swing trading strong trends on big timeframes such as the 4H, Daily, Weekly and Monthly try not to focus those zones as it will cast fear and doubt in your positions.

You are right, if the market is moving there's just no stopping it.

When I was working as a bond trader we never even drew any lines or support and resistance on our charts. Even though we were using a process called Market Making (pretty much scalping in both directions) I cannot remember a time where my colleagues or I discussed any major support and resistance areas coming up.

To give you an idea on what our screens looked like, here's a screenshot of my work desktop. One monitor, one trading platform and a DOM ladder with black and white bar chart minimized behind it just for reference.

No supply and demand zones here!

i understand the point here finding supply and demand in order book is true form of tape reading price action but it implement in specific markets including futures

Re: Thought Provoking

Posted: Fri Oct 25, 2024 7:33 am
by Piphunterss
Ogee wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 10:25 pm S&R levels are not an indicator as such but more a warning that price is entering a potential area of increased volatility and you should have a plan for any of the 3 possible outcomes. Sudden price reversal, sudden price breakthrough or price entering a phase of consolidation. Of course that can happen anywhere but based on previous events there is the increased possibility of lurking unfilled orders at these levels.

The real question is how to play S&R levels. Trying to play major reversals is not for the faint hearted or novice. Price often fluctuates at these levels instead of reversing. Major reversal traders tend to have a low win rate but aim for a high reward:risk ratio if it goes well.

The easier strategy is not to try to predict what will happen but rather to anticipate what could happen. Price will either reverse or breakout or consolidate. Try applying the 'Wyckoff method' (Google it), after some consolidation (even if just on the lower time frames) price will kick off in one direction, wait for the retest, then wait for the retest to fail. That's when you want to jump in (look for increasing volume as others do the same). Be in for the ride to the next significant level (range expansion).

Because S&R levels can often be a battleground between buyers and sellers what you want to avoid is getting caught out buying with price heading up into resistance or selling with price heading down into support.

Instead think to be buying with price heading up and away from support or selling with price heading down and away from resistance.

Hope this helps.
important points here

Re: Thought Provoking

Posted: Fri Oct 25, 2024 6:52 pm
by ionone
what you're looking for is what's called "Fair Price"
you can see trading as a market plac : prices get cheaper ? you can buy some
prices get higher ? time to sell

the hard part is to determine the "Fair Price", meaning the price that make something cheaper if under and more expensive if above

there is a saying in statisstics: " price always revert to the mean"
and that's true

so a good idea of a Fair Price is a simple moving average, and the price can divert from it but always goes back to it.

Re: Thought Provoking

Posted: Fri Oct 25, 2024 7:12 pm
by Piphunterss
Guys while we are talking is there any true vwap indicator which take tick data from mt4 and plot the line accordingly ,if there is it would help us

Re: Thought Provoking

Posted: Fri Oct 25, 2024 10:56 pm
by Piphunterss
ionone wrote: Fri Oct 25, 2024 6:52 pm what you're looking for is what's called "Fair Price"
you can see trading as a market plac : prices get cheaper ? you can buy some
prices get higher ? time to sell

the hard part is to determine the "Fair Price", meaning the price that make something cheaper if under and more expensive if above

there is a saying in statisstics: " price always revert to the mean"
and that's true

so a good idea of a Fair Price is a simple moving average, and the price can divert from it but always goes back to it.
yes yes yes this is what we are talking about price always get back to fair price , idea is when price go above the mean line it should atleast get back to test if there is still demand , vice versa for sell position ,, but question is can we use tick data of terminal to draw line like vwap which draw some kind of dot or arrow when there is more than average ticks ,, and price expands from there leaving a demand behind for retest ,,

Re: Thought Provoking

Posted: Sat Oct 26, 2024 8:05 am
by Pucmola
Piphunterss wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 1:24 am Hi Guys I want to Understand the true Meaning of Support and Resistance / Supply Demand i know there are tons of indicators available plus trader can manually draw supply demand but as i traded more and more i felt these levels never hold in expansion hwhen market expand with trend , so Question is what is the true criteria of supply demand zones in Forex , other previous week day and month .
I agree with what was already written here.

My opinion is......I'll make it simple...TRH follows a certain code and SR levels are an integral part of it.
You don't use them for reversal, bay, sell, etc... but for CONFIRMATIONS (correct/incorrect - must be returned, etc.).. and sometimes also for exit trade. Of course you have to specify them correctly..

are SR an indicator? for me it is definitely YES, I make min. 20% of indicators and EA - of course modified. Traders don't like them very much in indicators because they don't know what nonsense it shows :) Precise nonsense :)
SR can be added to anything when you create a base.
For me it belongs in the Top 10. I'm on test PCs, but I'll try to find some examples here.
I found 4 ... here is a screen for understanding/not understanding SR.







Edit: It was too late yesterday - I didn't have time to explain..... so now I'll explain the logic of what the scribbles in the picture are doing... since it's a SR indicator, it will show us correct/incorrect trends and fulfilled/unfulfilled conditions and will also show Buy, Sell if the conditions are met, but it will not be used for that...the first, third and fourth indicators do not need to be explained, I think they only confirm the trend - correct, incorrect..... So for me it is - SR indicator at 100% and in the Top 10. This is how I use SR