I wanted to add a word about XARD's latest update, i.e. V.32. I don't think SMA 200 would be a good choice of deciding whether the trend is up or down... I don't have any opinion regarding the 42 moving average, but I do consider the 200sma as a bad choice..... I put the 200sma from H4 down to M5 in mtf mode on quite a few charts to see whether it truly is a universal indicator of up and down trend while price being above/below the average respectively.... That was a sweeping statement from XARD which I don't see being supported from Chart analysis.... I failed to see any consistent picture of the trend..... Now don't kill me for giving my opinion.... But this is how I see it. If you see something different, you are fully entitled to your opinion.... US30 and Gold charts for your observation...
P.S. The charts are timeframe independent because same moving average is equally visible on all timeframes....both higher and lower....

Mustafa wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 2:35 pm I wanted to add a word about XARD's latest update, i.e. V.32. I don't think SMA 200 would be a good choice of deciding whether the trend is up or down... I don't have any opinion regarding the 42 moving average, but I do consider the 200sma as a bad choice..... I put the 200sma from H4 down to M5 in mtf mode on quite a few charts to see whether it truly is a universal indicator of up and down trend while price being above/below the average respectively.... That was a sweeping statement from XARD which I don't see being supported from Chart analysis.... I failed to see any consistent picture of the trend..... Now don't kill me for giving my opinion.... But this is how I see it. If you see something different, you are fully entitled to your opinion.... US30 and Gold charts for your observation...
P.S. The charts are timeframe independent because same moving average is equally visible on all timeframes....both higher and lower....

I think news was quite a big contributing factor into yesterdays price movement

Mustafa wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 2:35 pm

a) MAs don't work during ranges (depending on the TF on which they occur, they can be pretty wide); see: random walk....
b) directional bias doesn't mean that price only moves down once it breaks below (or up once it breaks above); instead it gives you a hint in which direction (up or down) you should be looking for trades (especially after touch and rejection)
c) as MAs give you an average of price development of the past they - to put it extremely simple - basically tell you at what point you could expect an equilibrium between buyers & sellers
d) whenever price moves away from this equilibrium it will later come back to it (either to retest or break through it): mean reversion...

Therefore:
price moving back to MAs (to retest or break through) at some point must be expected and proves nothing by itself (except that the ratio between buyers & sellers has changed)

josi wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 4:04 pm a) MAs don't work during ranges (depending on the TF on which they occur, they can be pretty wide); see: random walk....
b) directional bias doesn't mean that price only moves down once it breaks below (or up once it breaks above); instead it gives you a hint in which direction (up or down) you should be looking for trades (especially after touch and rejection)
c) as MAs give you an average of price development of the past they - to put it extremely simple - basically tell you at what point you could expect an equilibrium between buyers & sellers
d) whenever price moves away from this equilibrium it will later come back to it (either to retest or break through it): mean reversion...

Therefore:
price moving back to MAs (to retest or break through) at some point must be expected and proves nothing by itself (except that the ratio between buyers & sellers has changed)

What then would you say would be the best way to determine.

1. Directional Bias for a timeframe say M30
2. The right pairs to look at on an intraday or weekly basis to find trends and trend continuations (I only want to trade pullbacks)

These has been my puzzle for quite sometime now, I can't seem to find what to settle on.

Knight wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 8:11 am What then would you say would be the best way to determine.
1. Directional Bias for a timeframe say M30
2. The right pairs to look at on an intraday or weekly basis to find trends and trend continuations (I only want to trade pullbacks)
These has been my puzzle for quite sometime now, I can't seem to find what to settle on.

1. If you only want to trade pullbacks you could simply use Meyney's setup (as markets are fractal, many setups can be used for all TFs)
viewtopic.php?f=578267&t=8474130&hilit=pullback
2. There are no right or wrong pairs. The only things I would look at are spread and high volume.
PS: many people use SMA50, many people use SMA200,
many people emulate a higher (reference) TF (for that you could, for example, use kvak's "Moving average mtf BT"-indicator and use the MA you like but enter a higher TF - first, second, third higher TF - in the inputs...
enough possibilities to keep you occupied for the rest of your life...
Trading - as perception in general - is a highly subjective craft (what works for person a, may not work for person b etc; one person may want to trade two candles per day and adjust lot-size; another may want to trade long swings - you want to trade pullbacks: completely different approaches that call for completely different setups, as the bias one uses will not be a bias for the other)

josi wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 3:13 pm 1. If you only want to trade pullbacks you could simply use Meyney's setup (as markets are fractal, many setups can be used for all TFs)
viewtopic.php?f=578267&t=8474130&hilit=pullback
2. There are no right or wrong pairs. The only things I would look at are spread and high volume.
PS: many people use SMA50, many people use SMA200,
many people emulate a higher (reference) TF (for that you could, for example, use kvak's "Moving average mtf BT"-indicator and use the MA you like but enter a higher TF - first, second, third higher TF - in the inputs...
enough possibilities to keep you occupied for the rest of your life...
Trading - as perception in general - is a highly subjective craft (what works for person a, may not work for person b etc; one person may want to trade two candles per day and adjust lot-size; another may want to trade long swings - you want to trade pullbacks: completely different approaches that call for completely different setups, as the bias one uses will not be a bias for the other)

I totally understand you. I trade only pullbacks using my own template I built with concepts from Meyney, Xard and RplusT, as their trading styles resonate strongly with me. I find pullbacks to be the safest and most consistent trading pattern.

I am trying to become consistently profitable enough to apply and get into prop firms like ftmo and myforexfunds. I attended alot of SMB Capital webinars and read their books, SMB capital is one of the best and consistently profitable prop firms in the world. And a leading mantra of theirs is; "you're only as good as the stocks you trade". They only trade "stocks in play". Their A+ setup is also trend continuations and pullbacks, but they invest heavily in their stock selection and screening process to find "stocks in play" that is to say, stocks that are likely to trend and present them the best market conditions for trend continuations to make money.

Right now in my trading, I find that I make money when the market trends and give it back in consolidation, trading the same pairs, so I am mostly in either small profits or break even. Lmao this is great improvement as I'm not really losing anymore and I have great risk management down,I just need to be in the right markets more.

So..

1. Is there a systematic "stock screening and selection" method for forex pairs to at least figure out the forex pairs likely to trend per week or daily to at least be in the right market for continuations than not.

Or.

2. Is there a systematic way of "consolidation filter" to at least stay out of markets that aren't trending very early on. Without using the losses from the consolidation as the filter itself lmao.

Knight wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 5:29 pm 1. Is there a systematic "stock screening and selection" method for forex pairs to at least figure out the forex pairs likely to trend per week or daily to at least be in the right market for continuations than not.
2. Is there a systematic way of "consolidation filter" to at least stay out of markets that aren't trending very early on. Without using the losses from the consolidation as the filter itself lmao.

1. Many use so-called "forex heatmaps" (either as indicator or on web-sites)
Many use sentiment-tools (that show the ratio of buyers vs sellers)
(no external links are allowed on this site)
2. The best way to see ranges is to look to the left of current price on your screen (the further, the better).
By doing so you can avoid most of the obvious traps:
If you are familiar with the work of
Meyney: Supply&Demand-Zones (or Support&Resistance-Zones)
Xard: Semaphores amass
RplusT: the best of all tools: trendlines
you are already in the best hands.
The only thing I'd add: less is more...
[GBPCAD Mth: I think it will be interesting to watch:]

josi wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 6:02 pm 1. Many use so-called "forex heatmaps" (either as indicator or on web-sites)
Many use sentiment-tools (that show the ratio of buyers vs sellers)
(no external links are allowed on this site)
2. The best way to see ranges is to look to the left of current price on your screen (the further, the better).
By doing so you can avoid most of the obvious traps:
If you are familiar with the work of
Meyney: Supply&Demand-Zones (or Support&Resistance-Zones)
Xard: Semaphores amass
RplusT: the best of all tools: trendlines
you are already in the best hands.
The only thing I'd add: less is more...
[if you look at my screenshot above of GBPCAD H1 you see that the pair is trending, you don't need more than that]

Yeah. Meyney's supply and demand are part of my system.

I don't know how to use Xard's Semaphore as they repaint,
RplusT has spoken so much about trend lines but i have no idea how to systematically draw them. I don't do so well with anything subjective, especially in trading. I like to follow clearly stated rules.

And yes, I did catch the GBPCAD move too. But it was more of loss recovery. For the heatmap and sentiment, do you have any great recommendations? Or any pointers at all that could help? Maybe a correction in my approach?

AUDJPY 30M

Just hoping that I am not overkilling it....

Knight wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 5:29 pm I totally understand you. I trade only pullbacks using my own template I built with concepts from Meyney, Xard and RplusT, as their trading styles resonate strongly with me. I find pullbacks to be the safest and most consistent trading pattern.

I am trying to become consistently profitable enough to apply and get into prop firms like ftmo and myforexfunds. I attended alot of SMB Capital webinars and read their books, SMB capital is one of the best and consistently profitable prop firms in the world. And a leading mantra of theirs is; "you're only as good as the stocks you trade". They only trade "stocks in play". Their A+ setup is also trend continuations and pullbacks, but they invest heavily in their stock selection and screening process to find "stocks in play" that is to say, stocks that are likely to trend and present them the best market conditions for trend continuations to make money.

Right now in my trading, I find that I make money when the market trends and give it back in consolidation, trading the same pairs, so I am mostly in either small profits or break even. Lmao this is great improvement as I'm not really losing anymore and I have great risk management down,I just need to be in the right markets more.

So..

1. Is there a systematic "stock screening and selection" method for forex pairs to at least figure out the forex pairs likely to trend per week or daily to at least be in the right market for continuations than not.

Or.

2. Is there a systematic way of "consolidation filter" to at least stay out of markets that aren't trending very early on. Without using the losses from the consolidation as the filter itself lmao.

I enjoyed the chit chat and did not interfere because I could not come up with any strong suggestion which could influence your thoughts.... I let it pass, but strangely enough, as soon as I let it pass, something came up....... Yes, there is a systematic way to forex pairs selection and there is also a systematic way to know when market is consolidating and also the direction in which it most likely will break out...... It demands committed learning, patience, and having faith against faith in your analytical skills..... The method originally comes from stock trading and the two people I learned it from both traded stocks but the method is equally applicable to forex as well..... There are two Indian mentors, Sher Khan and Surjeet kakkar who specialize in this method.... I won't get into a lot of details.... You may look them up on youtube.... I may upload their courses for you sometimes if their method appeals to you.... Anyway, just to cut the matter short, if you can analyze the Support/Resistance, Supply/Demand, Order Blocks zones with just a little learning, soon you will be proficient enough to do it on your own.... Then trust your judgment and they will definitely tell you the whole story of the market..... I won't write much, I will give you a few chart examples.... I believe you will get the idea...... I wish I could write long on the subject and give you dozens of examples, but it will only make things blurred....... keep me updated about how you see it.....
P.S. These are all H4 charts.... (Patience)