As I thought, EUR/USD is testing the support at 1.0925 yet again. It will either form a triple bottom or continue depreciating.

EUR/USD: Extreme caution warranted



Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that EUR/USD has sold off to the base of the weekly channel at 1.0905, but the new low of 1.0904 has not been confirmed by the daily RSI and we have 13 counts on the daily and weekly charts.

Key Quotes

“Extreme caution is warranted. Failure at the base of the one year down channel at 1.0905 would put the January 2017 low at 1.0829 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-2018 advance at 1.0814 on the map. The topside remains capped by the three month resistance line at 1.1063, and will stay offered below here.”

“Only a daily chart close above the August 26 high at 1.1164 would confirm a bottoming formation and put the 200 day ma at 1.1244 back on the cards. For now the market is on the defensive.”

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-e ... 1909270552 (Article)

It dropped below the double bottom, it looks like the move south will continue.

It found some support at 1.0900 but I think it will eventually continue depreciating next week.

The move south seems to continue. Let's see whether EUR/USD will finally break out below the support at 1.0900.

Sell into the trend or counter-trend any movements to the upside after the news :ugeek:

EUR/USD remains under pressure below 1.09 ahead of data

• EUR/USD clinched new YTD lows around 1.0880, rebounds afterwards.
• Sellers remain in control and look for a move to 1.0840.
• EMU flash CPI coming up next on the docket.

The selling bias around the European currency remains everything but abated ion the first half of the week, with EUR/USD testing fresh 2019 lows in the 1.0880 region.

EUR/USD offered ahead of CPI

Spot is down for the second session in a row on Tuesday, keeping the bearish stance intact particularly after the recent break below the key support at 1.09 the figure.

It is worth recalling that the pair accelerated the downside on Monday after German flash inflation figures for the month of September came in short of expectations, showing further evidence of the loss of upside traction of consumer prices in the economy.

Later in the day, final September manufacturing PMIs are due in Euroland, although the attention will be on the advanced CPI for the region during the same period. Across the pond, the always-relevant ISM manufacturing will be in centre stage along with Fedspeak.

What to look for around EUR

EUR dropped to new 2-year lows vs. the Greenback in the 1.0880/75 band earlier in the session, as investors’ sentiment remains sour and without any hint of getting any better, at least in the near/medium term. In fact, the slowdown in the euro area stays far from abated and carries the potential to deteriorate further, as per the latest PMIs in core Euroland and despite the lacklustre improvement in a couple of German sentiment gauges. Speaking of Germany, the likeliness that the country could slip back into recession in the third quarter just adds to the already gloomy panorama for the bloc and weighs further on the single currency. The unremitting slowdown in the region does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB. On another front, potential US tariffs on imports of EU cars remain well on the table, while the Brexit limbo and UK politics adds to the ongoing concerns.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.06% at 1.0890 and a breach of 1.0879 (2019 low Oct.1) would target 1.0839 (monthly low May 11 2017) en route to 1.0569 (monthly low Apr.10 2017). On the upside, the next hurdle aligns at 1.1003 (21-day SMA) followed by 1.1109 (monthly high Sep.13) and finally 1.1163 (high Aug.26).

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-r ... 1910010733 (Article)

ChuChu Rocket wrote: Tue Oct 01, 2019 6:05 pm Sell into the trend or counter-trend any movements to the upside after the news :ugeek:

kk............. wattabout the news???? might push it up :?:

moey_dw wrote: Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:58 pm
kk............. wattabout the news???? might push it up :?:

Even if it does, it won't go up for too long. Just remember it's been in a downtrend for over a decade now. Shorts are your best bet. Even if you're in drawdown for a bit you'll make money from positive swap.

Here's a bigger picture:


Been shorting it for the past few weeks now too. We'll see how it goes. Here's some trading results: [url=http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Jimmyforex1/forex-station-daily--weekly/3545060/ifyMp4BEBB9fiiL3AZ7G]Myfxbook Verified Results[/url].

The pair bounced off from 1.0880, the move south being cut short. I think it will move north towards 1.0950.

EUR/USD reached 1.0950 as I thought it would, next target is likely around 1.1000.