mlawson71 wrote: Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:08 pm Let's see whether there will be a breakout above 1.1250 and a rally towards 1.1300.

Yes! Let's hope so. Happy Easter Mlawson

EUR/USD looks anaemic around 1.1240 amidst marginal volatility

• The pair remains stuck within a tight range near 1.1240.
• The greenback stays sidelined below recent tops.
• Markets in Europe are closed due to Easter Monday.

EUR/USD keeps navigating the lower end of the recent range near 1.1240 following last week’s rejection from tops beyond 1.1300 the figure.

EUR/USD hurt by data, looks to USD

Following last week’s multi-day highs above the 1.1300 handle, the pair has sparked a correction lower on the back of a renewed momentum favouring the buck and poor prints in the euro calendar.

In fact, April’s advanced manufacturing PMIs in Euroland published last Thursday have once again disappointed investors and poured cold water over any hope of a pick up in the region.

Combined with this, yield spread differentials between US bonds and German Bunds have resumed the upside and moved closer to 255 pts in the wake of recent strong prints in the US docket, all adding extra legs to the down move in spot.

With most European markets closed due to Easter Monday, the next risk event in the area will be the release of the German IFO survey on Wednesday. Across the pond, the performance of the housing sector during March will be in the limelight in the first half of the week, with the publication of Existing Home Sales later today and New Home Sales on Tuesday.

What to look for around EUR

The broad-based risk-appetite trends are posed to rule the sentiment surrounding the European currency for the time being, while the onoging US-China trade dispute and potential deal expected to remain in centre stage in the next weeks. Recent weak results from key fundamentals in the region plus a now unlikely rebound in the activity in the second half of the year have added to the ongoing concerns that the slowdown in the region could last longer that expected and the ECB is therefore likely to remain ‘neutral/dovish’ for the foreseeable future (say until mid-2020?). On the political front, headwinds are expected to emerge in light of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections in late May, as the populist option in the form of the far-right and the far-left movements appears to keep swelling among voting countries.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is up 0.01% at 1.1241 and a breakout of 1.1323 (high Apr.17) would target 1.1338 (200-week SMA) en route to 1.1341 (100-day SMA). On the flip side, initial contention emerges at 1.1226 (low Apr.18) seconded by 1.1183 (low Apr.2) and finally 1.1176 (low Mar.7).


Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-l ... 1904220643 (Article)

It does look anaemic. But the week has just begun, we may still see a rally.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro corrects towards 1.1160 despite better-than-expected US GDP

EUR/USD daily chart

• EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its main simple moving average (SMAs).
• The US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (GDP) for the first quarter came in at 3.2% vs. 2.1% forecast.
• After an initial reaction down, EUR/USD is now correcting to the upside.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

• EUR/USD is trading below its main SMAs suggesting a bearish bias in the medium-term.

EUR/USD 30-minute chart

• EUR/USD is trading above its 50 and 100 SMAs suggesting a correction up
• Resistances to the upside are seen at 1.1160 and 1.1200 level.
• Support is at 1.1200 and 1.1080 level.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-t ... 1904261301

By the looks of it the pair will drop to 1.1100 next week.

EUR/USD: Focus on Spanish political developments and US data

• The sell-off in EUR/USD stalled on Friday following the release of US first quarter GDP.
• Spanish political uncertainty could cap upside in the EUR.
• A below-forecast March US Personal Income and Spending will likely yield broad based USD sell-off.

The downside pressures around the shared currency have ebbed following Friday’s US GDP release. EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1159, having clocked a low of 1.1109 on Friday.

The relief, however, could be short-lived, courtesy of political uncertainty in Spain.

Spain’s incumbent Prime Minister and leader of Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) Pedro Sanchez has won elections but with no clear majority in parliament. As a result, the victorious party faces weeks of tense coalition negotiations in fragmented political political scene.

More importantly, if the parties fail to form a government then Spaniards could return to the polls later this year, following the municipal and European Parliament elections in late May.

The political situation in Spain is EUR-negative in the short-term. Eventually, however, economic performance could overshadow political uncertainty. It is worth noting that Spain’s economy did well after the December 2015 elections had produced a hung parliament, leaving the nation without government for ten months.

Apart from political developments in Spain, the EUR/USD pair could also take cues from the US Personal Spending and Personal Income data and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT.

It is worth noting that Friday’s US GDP release was a big beat on expectations. Even so, the American Dollar was offered as details of the report revealed a weak undertone and renewed concerns of deeper slowdown in the coming quarters.

These fears will likely be reinforced if the US Personal Spending and Core PCE figures disappoint expectations, sending the greenback lower across the board. In that case, EUR/USD will likely climb 2.12 despite the Spanish political uncertainty.

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-f ... 1904290425 (Article)

The pair is in correction mode today. I think we may see it rally towards 1.1200.

The rally continues and I opened a long position.

mlawson71 wrote: Thu May 02, 2019 12:16 am The rally continues and I opened a long position.

Nice one bro! Keep us updated and don't hold that buy position open for too long (intraday EURUSD has been trending down since March 2018).

Let us know how your trade goes

mlawson71 wrote: Thu May 02, 2019 12:16 am The rally continues and I opened a long position.

Sweet. Have you closed your trade yet or still in it? L|atest EUR/USD update.

EUR/USD: Headed back towards 1.13 in 3M – Danske Bank


Jens Nærvig Pedersen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, notes that the EUR/USD pair initially rose above 1.1260 on the statement from the FOMC meeting and the news that the Fed had cut the IOER by 5bp.

Key Quotes

“Helping EUR/USD higher was an initial drop in the 2Y USD OIS swap rate of 5bp. However, once Fed Chair Powell got going on the press conference, the initial move more than reversed, sending EUR/USD back down to 1.1200.”

“The market took its cue from Powell’s comments that the Fed expects the inflation shortfall to be transitory and that the next move on rates could be either up or down.”

“We maintain our view that EUR/USD is headed back towards 1.13 in 3M – a move that would have less to do with Fed policy and more to do with further improvement in the Chinese economy including a US-China trade deal.”

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-h ... 1905020851 (Article)

EURUSD falls but then rebounds after jobs report

Bounces off underside of the broken trendline

The EURUSDs initial reaction was lower off the stronger jobs gains, but the fall took the price to the underside of a broken trend line and the selling stalled. The price is back higher - trading at 1.1163 currently. Just ahead of the report the price was at 1.1154.


Yields are now negative in the US after being higher. The reaction, to me, is a bit strange.

Technically, getting above the 1.1175-77 area (see green numbered circles on the hourly chart) would then look toward the 200 and 100 hour MAs at 1.1183 to 1.11947 respectively.

On the downside (to me, we can go either way), watch the 1.1150 area. The price dipped to 1.1149 after the run higher.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... t-20190503